TURKEY MAY HIT WALL IN ARMENIAN DIALOGUE
Today’s Zaman
April 30 2009
Turkey
Is Turkey slamming the brakes on Armenian rapprochement? Yes and no,
depending on whom you ask in the Turkish capital, and most of the time,
the response is understandably not straightforward as the decades-long
issue has too many dimensions.
"If parallel diplomacy — moving on negotiations on both border opening
and resolving the occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh territories
at the same time — is deemed to not be working, we should ease
off the gas and start contemplating hitting the brakes," says Murat
Mercan, chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Commission and
a high-ranking member of the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AK Party). Mercan told Today’s Zaman that Turkey may be forced to
revise its standing against the backdrop of mounting public pressure.
Opposition party leaders on Tuesday blamed Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan for giving in to pressure brought to bear by the US and the
European Union. In a speech delivered to the Republican People’s
Party (CHP) parliamentary group, CHP leader Deniz Baykal apologized
to Azerbaijanis on behalf of Erdogan. "The AK Party is here today,
but it may not be here tomorrow. However, Turkey will always be on
the side of Azerbaijanis."
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli joined Baykal
in criticizing the government for making an agreement with Armenia
without first securing a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh.
Columnist Hasan Kanbolat, an expert on Caucasian politics,
disagrees. He explained to Today’s Zaman that the opening with Armenia
has reached a point where backpedaling is no longer possible. "I
think stability and security in the Caucasian region has become a
transatlantic issue and both the US and the EU want the problems
resolved," he said. Kanbolat believes the ongoing diplomatic process
will stay on course despite the public backlash, which he thinks
could have been handled much better.
After Russia’s invasion of Georgia last year, the West has learned
its lesson and will try to nudge both Armenia and Georgia to accept
the protective custody of NATO and even of the EU, Kanbolat argued,
noting that Turkey has little room to maneuver under the present
circumstances. "Even that maneuverability will be limited to
conjecture," he stressed.
Commenting on his recent fact-finding mission to Azerbaijan, Yılmaz
AteÅ~_, deputy chairman of the CHP, told Today’s Zaman that he found
Azerbaijan fuming over the prospect of Turkey opening its border with
Armenia. "They are very frustrated with the Turkish government because
they claim Ankara has kept Baku in the dark on the content of secret
talks being held since 2004 through a Swiss intermediary," AteÅ~_
noted, saying Azerbaijani officials felt they had been betrayed by
a friend.
Ankara has long claimed that Azerbaijani officials are well
informed about the talks and have been kept abreast of the latest
happenings. Both President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan
have repeatedly made assurances that Turkey would never agree to
any settlement with Armenia without resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem; however, this does not seem to be working well to alleviate
the concerns of Azerbaijani officials. At a meeting with European
Commission President José Manuel Barroso on Tuesday, Azerbaijani
President Ä°lham Aliyev warned Turkey, "We have the right to
re-establish our policy in accordance with the regional realities,
and we shall exercise our right."
Explaining what went south in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, AteÅ~_
pointed to the Russian factor. "Moscow handed the details of secret
talks between Turkey and Armenia over to Azerbaijan. The details were
turned over to the Russians by Armenia," he noted. "We constantly
heard from Azerbaijani members of parliament who said, ‘Turks should
have let us in these secret talks and not gone behind our backs’,"
AteÅ~_ said, recalling his tour of Baku.
Now that relations between Turkey and Armenia are showing signs of
stress, many politicians in Ankara seem to have put their wet fingers
up in the air to feel the direction of the political winds as they
scramble to readjust their positions according to changing perceptions.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
