BAKU CALLING FOR OPENNESS IN TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS
Fariz Ismailzade

Jamestown Foundation
May 5 2009

Most Azerbaijani politicians as well as the general public believe
that the recent developments in Turkey’s bilateral relationship
with Armenia were aimed only at influencing Barack Obama’s April 24
statement. Supposedly, Turkey wanted to provide a reason for Obama
to avoid using the word "genocide" when referring to the events of
1915. Now that Turkey has avoided this potential degradation in
its relations with the United States, one of its closest allies,
the question remains as to whether Turkey and Armenia will continue
taking steps towards each other, or if their declared intention to
normalize bilateral relations was only a tactical move.

The government in Azerbaijan is carefully monitoring all the
statements coming from both Yerevan and Ankara. It appears that the
Turkish government is keen to continue on this track, which raises
concerns within Baku. On April 13, a spokesman from Azerbaijan’s
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Elkhan Polukhov, said that "the opening
of the border will be a tactical and strategic mistake and will
increase the tensions in the region." While the Deputy Minister
of Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov, stated four days earlier that,
"the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia is possible
in the context of the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani Karabakh
conflict." Azimov added that the discussions on the issue could be
included in the negotiation process on the Karabakh conflict, and that
any normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations might occur in phases,
in parallel with the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories
( April 8).

Indeed, both the Azerbaijani public and the leadership of the country
categorically oppose a one-sided approach to the re-opening the
Turkish-Armenian border. Foremost, Baku fears that opening the border
will further strengthen Armenia and make it less cooperative in any
future negotiations. Until now Azerbaijan had hoped that economics
would play a decisive role in compelling Armenia to give up the
occupied territories. Regional economic development between Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey was often cited as an example of Armenia’s mistaken
strategic choice, which led the country into economic and political
isolation within the region. Baku hoped that in the longer term,
the Armenian government may act in its national interests and prefer
economic development rather than political nationalism.

But Turkey’s initiative to normalize its relations with Armenia risks
ruining Baku’s strategic planning and brings new uncertainties into
the regional dynamics. The Azerbaijani government also fears that the
Turkish-Armenian cooperation will alter the fragile balance of power
within the region and might even provoke Armenia to pursue further
military action.

At the same time, the Turkish-Armenian border issue also has important
symbolic meaning. Turkey closed its border at the start of the
Karabakh conflict, due to Armenia’s aggression against Azerbaijani
territory. Renouncing that symbolic but powerful gesture of support
could diminish Turkey’s image within the region. An Azerbaijani Member
of Parliament (MP) Sabir Rustamkhanli, told EDM on April 9 that he
believed Turkey is being pressured by outside powers to re-open the
border with Armenia, because "external forces" wanted to humiliate
Turkey and show that it can yield under pressure.

In the aftermath of Obama’s statement on April 24, the Azerbaijani
government’s top priority is to foster dialogue with Turkey and
ensure that policies are coordinated between the two strategic
allies -avoiding any negative consequences to upset their bilateral
relations. In this context, Azerbaijani officials have been privately
complaining that they lack full information about Turkish intentions,
and they fear that details are being deliberately concealed. In fact,
the so-called "road map," signed by the Turkish and Armenian Presidents
has not been shown to the Azerbaijani authorities. Asim Mollazade,
MP and the leader of the Party for Democratic Reforms, expressed his
outrage about the confidentiality of the talks between Turkey and
Armenia. "We were not informed about these talks. We learned about
them from other sources," said Mollazade ( April 30). It
is expected that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s forthcoming trip
to Baku will address some of these concerns.

On the other hand, Azerbaijani officials recognize that there have
been some positive results stemming from these recent developments:
the growing interest of the international community in this region and
specifically in seeking to find a resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
as well as the sudden realization that Azerbaijan and Turkey must
constantly work to improve their bilateral relations. Public outreach
in this respect is a prerequisite, Azerbaijani officials believe. In
mid-April a group of Azerbaijani parliamentarians traveled to Turkey to
deliver this message from Azerbaijan. A similar message was conveyed
by Turkish parliamentarians in Baku. Both countries will increase
their public diplomacy in order to avoid any future misunderstandings
similar to those experienced in relation to the anxiety triggered
over Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.