END IN SETTLEMENT OF NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT…APPROACHING? – ANALYSIS

APA
May 6 2009
Azerbaijan

The first results of the six-party political dialogue within the
framework of the Roadmap on the settlement of the conflict will be
known at Prague meeting of presidents

Baku. Vugar Masimoglu – APA. For the first time after the Key
West talks, so much intensity is observed in the negotiations on
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. For the first time all the parties
having interests in the region except Iran participate in the
diplomatic process. Visits of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the
region within the past month, caused to surmise that an "X" process
started. Improvement of Turkey-Armenia relations, statements of
influential politicians and statesmen welcoming "the improvements
in the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict" and "steps taken
to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations" , recent intensive process
of diplomacy formed an obscure public opinion: "It seems that some
steps are being taken for the settlement of the conflict."

Actually, the situation was made clear by former Foreign Minister of
Turkey Ali Babacan last year. But the known incident in Azerbaijan
State Oil Academy cast shadow on these statements. (It would not
be bad to assess the terror attack against the background of the
process on the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict) Actually,
Ali Babacan announced the details of the roadmap on the settlement
of Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the political dialogues of the
past week confirmed that multilateral dialogue began basing on the
roadmap. Saying "New diplomatic process will begin soon for the
normalization of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s relations with Armenia"
, Babacan noted that along with the above-mentioned states, US,
Russia and Switzerland would participate in the process. Analysis of
Babacan’s statements gives ground to come to the conclusion concerning
"X" process.

a) The process aims not only to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations,
but also to solve the problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia. So,
the opening of Turkey-Armenia borders in the new multilateral
format takes place in parallel with the solution to Nagorno Karabakh
conflict. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov also confirmed
after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that both
processes were taking place in parallel.

b) For the first time US, Russia and Switzerland will participate
in the diplomatic process consisting of bilateral and multilateral
negotiations. Participation of Switzerland in the process arouses
interest. This country will very likely realize the mediation
mission in the initial stage of Turkey-Armenia and Azerbaijan-Armenia
diplomatic relations. Switzerland had before realized similar mission
between Georgia and Russia through its embassies in Tbilisi and Moscow.

c) "Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents achieved important improvements
in the negotiations". This statement had been made on various levels
before Ali Babacan. It gives ground to say that there is serious
improvement in the process of negotiations. For long years it has
been stated that the parties should demonstrate political will, but
for the first time Turkey’s Foreign Minister did not say "there is a
need for political will", but said "the messages from both countries
show that the political will allow to solve the problem". It means
that the barrier of political will in the settlement of the conflict
has been overcome.

d) The most interesting points in the recent processes are the
diplomatic messages that the process of the settlement of Nagorno
Karabakh conflict will end soon. The first such a message was made by
President Ilham Aliyev at the joint briefing with Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow. "I hope the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will
be solved soon enough. No one can ignore the progress in the process of
negotiations, this progress raises our hopes that the conflict will be
solved soon". Similar statements were made by Russian President. "If
contacts continue, I am sure the conflict can be solved taking into
account the prepared proposals IN A Short PERIOD TIME in accordance
with the interests of both peoples". And finally Ali Babacan said "The
possibility of solution is observed, and this is not the process to
last for many years". Judging from these views, the conflict will be
very likely solved and in a short period of time. Taking into account
the news of the Kommersant on the eve of President Ilham Aliyev’s
visit to Moscow on April 17, "Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents
will discuss the draft summit on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict",
then it is impossible not to see how serious the situation is.

e) What principles are discussed at the negotiations over
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict? It is partly made clear in the
statements of Ali Babacan or Russian President Dmitry Medvedev,
who has loaded word in the solution to the conflict. Turkish
foreign minister said the details would be specified during the
bilateral and multilateral dialogues within the hexangular of
US-Russia-Switzerland-Turkey-Azerbaijan-Armenia . "We target to achieve
"Win-Win" results". It is clear that the question is the winning by
both parts based on the mutual compromises. The main probability
is that there is a solution on the table based on the exchange
of territory. It can’t be out of view that Russian president also
declared clearly for the first time "It is necessary to base on the
norms of international law, UN and OSCE resolutions in the solution
to the conflict". Azerbaijani president also said at a briefing "We
hope that we will achieve in the next few months the solution moved
the process forward, within the interests of both peoples, within the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and based on the strengthening of
international norms and principles in the region", that leads us to
a conclusion: "The alternative of solution made both parts to win,
based on the norms of international law, UN and OSCE resolutions
(Dmitry Medvedev), within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
(Ilham Aliyev) is on the table of negotiations". One point has to
be mentioned. For the first time there is not a point about the
inviolability of borders in the statements made at the different
levels. It increases probability that the dialogue is about the
solution based on exchange of territory because the exchange of
territory is contrary to the principle of inviolability of borders.

f) If so many progresses were made in the diplomatic talks over the
solution to the conflict, what factors can break the process? Ali
Babacan emphasized the overcoming of one of the main obstacles –
the barrier of political will of the parts to the conflict, but
there is some hesitation in the Babacan’s statement: "If the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairs Russia and the United States also express their
will the problems can be resolved". Russian president Dmitry Medvedev
underlined "the third, but very complicated factors for both sides to
show restraint and to see the prospects". So the fundamental solution
to the conflict depends not only on the political will of Azerbaijan
and Armenia, but also on the analogical will of Russia and the United
States, as well as third factors’ influence on the process. "The third,
but very complicated factors" means that the societies are unready
for the mutual concessions and establishing of atmosphere of mutual
trust. The societies have objective reasons, like mutual hate and
historic enmity, to be unready for "Win-Win" model and the Russian
president considers just these factors calling it as "complicated’.

The bilateral diplomatic talks over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict have
already begun according to the "road map", which details announced by
Ali Babacan. The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents’ visit to Russia
last month, meeting of foreign ministers of both countries with US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s visit to Azerbaijan on May 13 and to Russian on May 16, the
meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Prague on May 7, as
well as tripartite meeting between Turkish, Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents in Prague show that the process of multilateral dialogue
has already been started. The important point of the dialogue will be
the presidents’ meeting in Prague. It is important that what position
Armenia will show despite that both parts expressed readiness to
demonstrate political will. The statements made by Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in Washington make conclusion that Armenia
still hesitate in the solution to the conflict and the Prague meeting
will show will the process started with high hopes give results or not.

It is still not possible to predict the results of the process
despite the optimist statements of the diplomats. We compared the
new multilateral dialogue over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict with
Key West talks. Failure of the Key West negotiations delayed the
settlement of the conflict for at least 10 years. If the dialogue
process started today and which is more comprehensive and larger
than Key West talks will also fail the solution to Nagorno Karabakh
conflict will be delayed for 10 years more. At least!