ARMENIAN-TURKISH SUMMIT IN PRAGUE
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
05.05.2009 GMT+04:00

"Cautious optimism", "window", "golden opportunity" and other similar
euphemisms that were called to disguise what has long been clear are
already a thing of the past; NKR will never be returned to Azerbaijan
and Baku has to admit it.

The next meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan at
the summit of "Eastern Partnership" due in Prague will apparently not
introduce a breakthrough in the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. By the way, we would not even discuss this issue as
everything is clear as it is. But one circumstance made us do it,
namely the absence of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in the notorious
Armenian-Turkish "road map", which no one has ever seen and which
simply does not exist.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Exactly at the threshold of the summit, Armenian and
Azerbaijani Ministers of Foreign Affairs left for Washington at Hilary
Clinton’s invitation. To all appearances, negotiations at the State
Department were conducted as expected: minimum information and various
"deductions" of the analysts, leading as always to one and the same
idea – no breakthrough is foreseen in the NKR conflict in the near
future even if Armenian-Turkish relations are normalized. "Cautious
optimism", "window", "golden opportunity" and other similar euphemisms
that were called to disguise what has long been clear are already
a thing of the past; NKR will never be returned to Azerbaijan and
Baku has to admit it. Sure, the pill must be sugared, for instance
by giving carte blanche to various energy projects where Azerbaijan,
or, to be more accurate, the Aliyev clan, is involved.

As usual, co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group did not fail to express
themselves. In the words of French Co-chair Bernard Fassier, the
mediators "are looking forward to further progress. The co-chairing
countries presented the final version of the basic principles to the
parties two years ago, in late 2007, and we hope that the leaders
can make a progress in validation of these principles."

"The Prague meeting will be the fourth meeting between the Presidents
after the St. Petersburg meeting a year ago in June, which appeared
to be quite constructive. The Moscow meeting was constructive too;
it ended with signing of the Moscow Declaration where the Presidents
agreed that it is very important that the regulation be political,
based on all the principles and norms of the international law. Later,
they met in Zurich in late January 2009, and it was another positive
meeting. Thus, we very much hope that in this framework, Prague will
be a continuation of constructive meetings," said Fassier.

But in Prague President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan will also meet
President of Turkey Abdullah Gul. It is natural that in light of the
cabinet change of Turkish ministers, certain changes are outlined
in foreign policy of the country, which will be discussed at the
encounter. It is possible to assume that after the Prague meeting
negotiations on restoration of Armenian-Turkish relations will
become more intensive, especially if we take into consideration
the fact that the United States is interested in them. At least
outwardly Russia in this issue is thus far passive, possibly because
she believes that without her neither Armenia, nor even Turkey shall
resolve anything. However, in our opinion, this is one of the grossest
mistakes of the Russian-Caucasian policy, which, by the way, hardly
exists. Erdogan’s visit to Moscow is only refinement of the components
discussed during the meeting with Barack Obama in Ankara. But the
Turkish Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Baku is quite accurate a
step; this is exactly what he should do. And if someone seriously
considers that Turkey will not "disappoint" Azerbaijan, he is
wrong. Everything is already fixed and the leak of information about
certain agreements of the type "road map", return of regions and
other similar nonsense is necessary only as an evasive maneuver.

In all these arrangements there is one imminent risky point for Armenia
and it outweighs everything else: they want to force Yerevan to ratify
the Kars agreement. But it is exactly what Armenia should never do,
if she doesn’t want to commit a suicide. Everything else originates
from it.