Can thaw unstick frozen conflict?

By Konul Khalilova
BBC Azeri.com

Hopes of a breakthrough in the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing as the presidents of the
two countries prepare to meet this week at a European Union summit in
Prague.

There is a sense of a window of an opportunity that must be seized.

The meeting is the culmination of a series of moves which has seen
both sides edging towards a lasting peace.

It is also linked to a third player in a complicated diplomatic
triangle: Turkey.

A rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, which could lead to the
opening of their joint border, has caused alarm in Azerbaijan, which
has always had Turkey’s sympathy over Nagorno-Karabakh.

We understand the importance of links between Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev But at the same time, there are signs
that the thaw may also unstick that frozen conflict.

The Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers have visited Washington this
week for discussions with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

They follow recent talks between the two countries’ leaders and their
Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, after which President Ilham
Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Serge Sarkisian of Armenia
expressed their high hopes for a lasting peace.

‘Ready to move’
A deal has been a long time coming.

A ceasefire was signed in 1994 after a three-year war which claimed up
to 30,000 lives.

The Azeri population of Nagorno-Karabakh – an ethnic Armenian enclave
within Azerbaijan – was displaced as a result of the war and now lives
in different parts of the country.

Azerbaijan demands an immediate withdrawal of Armenian forces from the
territory.

Armenia insists on the enclave’s independence.

But now a peace plan has been drafted by the OSCE Minsk Group, which
was set up to help settle the conflict.

One of the main issues to be solved is that of the Lachin corridor,
the main transport route between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The president of Azerbaijan has made some unusually warm statements
saying that "we understand the importance of links between Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh, and the issues regarding Lachin corridor can be
resolved efficiently".

Mr Medvedev said that the parties were "ready to move in a
constructive direction in order to solve this very difficult problem".

Matthew Bryza, the American co-chair of the Minsk group, sounds
optimistic, saying that a framework for a peace accord between
Azerbaijan and Armenia is "absolutely possible" within the next
months.

Turkish influence
The meeting in Prague comes two weeks after Armenia and Turkey agreed
on a roadmap to normalise relations.

President Aliyev (left) has had some unusually warm things to say
about Armenia Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in support
of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey and Armenia started
high-level talks last year but the real thaw came just weeks after US
President Barack Obama urged Turkey to come to terms with the past and
open its borders.

The "positive mood" created by the Turkish-Armenian roadmap "gives a
new energy to accelerate our work to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict" according to US envoy Matthew Bryza.

The EU, which will formally launch a new Eastern Partnership this week
with six former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan and Armenia,
has so far stood back from the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

But the EU could gain a lot from a deal, as it attempts to secure
energy supplies by completing the Nabucco gas pipeline project which
would carry Caspian gas to European markets, reducing their dependency
on Russia.

The opening of borders and easing tension in the region suits both the
US and EU, as they attempt to prize Armenia gently away from Russian
influence.

Limited window However, there are problems to be overcome.

Azerbaijan hints that it is not happy at Turkey having the opening of
the Armenian border "in mind", though Turkey continues to insist that
this would be dependent on an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Azerbaijan also does not seem to be in the mood to make any
concessions regarding its territory.

President Aliyev has said recently that self-determination of Azeris
and Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh "can happen within the framework of
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan" and the conflict can be resolved
"only on this basis".

Rasim Musabeyov, an Azeri political pundit told the BBC Azeri Service
that if this chance of settling both the Turkey-Armenia rift and the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem is lost, "it might bring the region to the
very brink of a new war".

Many experts believe that it will still take several months of
intensive diplomatic effort involving the EU, US and Russia before any
substantial breakthrough is made.

But if the negotiating parties fail to achieve a peace deal in the
coming months and the window of opportunity closes, it is feared that
the West, including the EU, may turn their political energies away
from what may by then seem an intractable problem.