CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS: TERRORIST THREAT ON RISE IN FERGHANA VALLEY – US STATE DEPARTMENT
Joshua Kucera

Eurasianet

May 8, 2009

The threat posed by Islamic militant groups in Central Asia, especially
in the Kyrgyz and Tajik portions of the Ferghana Valley, appears to
be growing, according to the US State Department’s recently released
annual report on terrorism.

The State Department’s 2008 Country Reports on Terrorism, released
April 30, suggest that the membership in Kyrgyzstan of Hizb-ut-Tahrir,
a group that the State Department says advocates "the establishment
of a borderless, theocratic Islamic state throughout the entire Muslim
world," grew from 5,000 in 2006 to 15,000 in 2008.

The members live mainly in the ethnic-Uzbek southern region of
Kyrgyzstan, but "are reportedly achieving an increased following
in the north as well," the report said. "Kyrgyz officials reported
growing support for and bolder public outreach by HT."

While Hizb-ut-Tahrir is growing in Kyrgyzstan, that does not mean
that people there subscribe to all of its radical beliefs, asserted
Eric McGlinchey, a Central Asia expert at George Mason University.

"The report highlighted the fact that Hizb ut-Tahrir was radical and
anti-Semitic and all that, which it is. But when you take a look at
the rank-and-file members in Kyrgyzstan, they may be knowledgeable
about that rhetoric, but that’s not the reality of Hizb ut-Tahrir
for the vast majority who are part of it," he said.

Most members are more attracted to the group’s social welfare
activities and small-scale development projects, which fill a space
that the ineffective government is unable to, McGlinchey said.

On Uzbekistan, whose government has had a combative relationship with
Washington since the 2005 Andijan events, the report said relatively
little. Over the past year US officials have sought to reestablish
cordial ties with Uzbekistan, which is serving as a key conduit for
the transport of non-lethal equipment to support the war effort in
Afghanistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"The Government of Uzbekistan pursued modest steps in resuming
counterterrorism cooperation with the United States," the report said,
without providing details. The Uzbekistan section of the report was
notable for the omission of any discussion of terrorist groups in
Uzbekistan. The previous year’s report listed several groups that
the United States believed were operating in Uzbekistan in 2007:
"Supporters of terrorist groups such as the Islamic Jihad Group
(IJG), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the IMU-affiliated
East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and other al Qaeda-affiliated
groups were active in the region, and terrorist groups in the region
continued to target both the Government of Uzbekistan and western
interests." The report for 2008 contains no such discussion.

Tajikistan also is home to an unknown number of Hizb-ut-Tahrir
members, primarily in the northern part of the country, as well as
other Islamist groups including al Qaeda, the report stated.

The report highlighted various US-led counterterrorism initiatives
that the government of Tajikistan participated in, but noted
that impoverished circumstances in Tajikistan made it difficult
to effectively combat terrorist groups. "Individual border guards
and other law enforcement personnel were not motivated to interdict
smugglers or traffickers due to systematic corruption, low income,
conscripted service, and lack of support from senior Tajik government
officials," the report said. "As a result, extremists and terrorists
may exploit Tajikistan’s border to travel to and from Afghanistan."

The Kazakhstan section of the report highlighted various international
counter-terrorism efforts that Astana undertook in 2008, and
specifically mentioned cooperation with Slovakia and the United
Arab Emirates. "When you look at the Kazakhstan section, of all the
cooperation they’re doing, there is one major player that is missing:
the United States," McGlinchey said.

Nevertheless, Kazakhstan did cooperate with the United States,
the report said: "Kazakhstan detained and prosecuted suspected
terrorists and took tangible steps to cooperate and share information
with the United States and international organizations." The report
said Kazakhstan now has 16 groups that are banned as "terrorist and
extremist" organizations, but the report did not estimate the extent
of their membership.

Turkmenistan cooperated with international counterterrorism efforts,
but the country’s borders remained vulnerable because of difficult
terrain and the "small size and uneven quality of Turkmenistan’s
border guard and customs services," the report said.

The report mentioned the September 2008 violence in the Khitrova
district of Ashgabat, where a protracted gun battle took place under
circumstances that remain murky. The incident "forced the [g]overnment
of Turkmenistan to reevaluate its counterterrorism program, training
partners, and readiness," the report said, without providing details.

Terrorism is an unlikely prospect in a place as tightly controlled
as Turkmenistan, the State Department stressed: "Turkmenistan’s law
enforcement and security agencies exert stringent security control
over all aspects of society, making it unlikely that Turkmenistan
could easily be used as a terrorist safe haven."

Indeed, Turkmenistan remains one the most repressive on earth. The
State Department’s latest evaluation of human rights conditions in
the country stated that Ashgabat "continued to restrict severely
political and civil liberties."

On Armenia, the report said that the country’s ties with Iran
hampered its anti-terrorism efforts. "As a result of the increased
diplomatic activity, Armenia continued to be reluctant to participate
in international efforts that criticized or placed pressure on Iran
for its non-compliance on issues related to nuclear proliferation
and terrorist financing," the report said.

Iran also featured in the Azerbaijan section of the report: "Azerbaijan
is a logical route for extremists with ties to terrorist organizations,
including several organizations which have been ‘inspired’ or directed
by Iran. These groups have sought to move people, money, and material
through the Caucasus, but the government has actively opposed them
and has had some success in reducing their presence and hampering
their activities."

The State Department also noted that while efforts to combat
money-laundering in Azerbaijan have been lacking, the country is
trying to implement reforms.

Georgia has improved its ability to stop smuggling of contraband like
drugs, money and weapons, the report said. It also suggested, without
providing detail, that the de facto Russian occupation of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia could promote terrorism. "Border crossings into Russia
from the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia continued,
but were not under the control of the [g]overnment of Georgia. This
situation allowed for the unrestricted and unidentified flow of
people, goods, and other items from Russia into these regions,"
the report said.

Editor’s Note: Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC-based freelance writer
who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus and
the Middle East.