RIVAL LEBANESE CHRISTIAN FACTIONS NOW HOLD POLITICAL CARDS IN LEVANT
Anthony Elghossain
Daily Star
May 11 2009
Lebanon
WASHINGTON: One year after the Lebanese clashed with each other in
an eruption of violence that cost the lives of some 200 individuals,
the country tensely awaits parliamentary elections on June 7. One
month from now, the Lebanese will take to the streets again. This
time, however, the battle is for ballots. Unfolding in a playground
open to the ambitions of regional and international powers alike,
the Lebanese election is likely to impact American policy with respect
to Syria and Iran.
To make clear the consequences of a Hizbullah victory, some State
Department officials have stated that American aid to Lebanon hinges on
the election results, although there are some murmurs that Lebanon will
not be isolated like Gaza, regardless of the electoral outcome in June.
The struggle in Lebanon has been framed as part of a regional stand-off
pitting the United States, Sunni Arab regimes, and Israel against
Syria, Iran, and various non-state actors (including Hizbullah). Much
is true in this view the region, but the Lebanon’s fate now lies
elsewhere. For all the emphasis on democrats and despots, moderates
and extremists, and Sunnis and Shiites, rival Lebanese Christian
factions now hold the political cards in the Levant. Christians and
Muslims receive equal representation in Lebanon’s Parliament, making
Christians politically significant even after relative political
decline. In Lebanon, internal unity is a prerequisite for effective
communal politics: Shiites have coalesced around Hizbullah and Sunnis
have united behind the Hariri family, but the Christians remain
divided. An ideological rift over Lebanon’s orientation toward the
West and the Middle East has combined with a barebones struggle for
internal supremacy to severely hinder Christian cohesion in Lebanon.
On the one hand stands former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel’s
Phalange party and former militia leader Samir Geagea’s Lebanese
Forces (LF). Both parties are hostile to Syrian interference in
Lebanese affairs, and are currently part of a coalition supported by
the United States and the West. On the other hand stands a camp that
revolves around former General Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM). At a crossroads, the FPM advocates for Lebanese sovereignty
and a Christian voice in the political system, but has allied with
Hizbullah, which receives Syrian and Iranian support.
Rivalry between these factions has divided the Christian community
since the late 1980s, when Geagea and Aoun disagreed over negotiations
to end the Civil War and struggled for power in an autonomous Christian
enclave. The dispute culminated in a "war of brothers," which resulted
in the emigration of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese Christians and
allowed Syrian troops to enter the Christian enclave. This remains
a bittersweet moment in the Christian psyche for, although Syrian
involvement ended the Civil War, it also brought a 15-year-long
occupation.
Aoun’s subsequent exile and Geagea’s imprisonment (both arguably
orchestrated by Syria) silenced Christian opposition to Syrian tutelage
in Lebanon in the 1990s, but common cause led to cooperation between
the parties. Two decades after the end of the Civil War, with Syrian
troops out of Lebanon, the rivalry has renewed.
In 2005, Aoun returned to Lebanon and swept the Christian vote (Geagea
was released from prison after the elections). Surprisingly, Aoun’s
FPM assembled a large parliamentary coalition without support from
other major parties. Shortly thereafter, the growing rift between Aoun
and other Lebanese leaders led him to sign a controversial memorandum
of understanding with Hizbullah.
Whatever Aoun’s motivations for realignment were – indeed, there
are valid claims that the anti-Syrian coalition shunned him to check
his growing influence – the FPM’s move is at the heart of Christian
uncertainty in the country. Cooperating with Hizbullah has clearly
cost the party support, but this has not necessarily translated into
affirmative gains by the other factions.
Much of the Christian electorate remains (publicly) undecided;
though Aoun’s FPM is still the largest Christian group in Lebanon, a
large measure of its success in 2005 was due to alliances with local
politicians. Some alliances have faltered, and those that survive
may actually hinder Aoun this time around.
In the pivotal Metn region, for example, local boss Michel Murr left
the FPM’s umbrella coalition last year. Murr’s hold on municipal
authority and close ties to the crucial Armenian swing vote make him
a kingmaker in the area. In what would be a crushing blow to Aoun’s
political prospects, Murr is on the brink of forming a coalition with
the Phalange.
Elsewhere, in the town of Zahle, local chief Elias Skaff continues
to support Aoun. However, Skaff is at the center of a controversy
surrounding last year’s shooting of two Phalange party members. The
opposing parties are still trading accusations and ramping up support,
and it remains to be seen whether the Phalange and LF can defeat the
FPM-Hizbullah bloc in this historically anti-Syrian district.
Finally, Aoun’s troubles were made worse by an uproar over Hizbullah’s
presence in Kesrouan, a staunchly nationalist district in the Christian
heartland. Hizbullah has triggered insular Christians’ suspicions
by placing outposts in the area, which lies north of Beirut, and
failing to explain how such activity fits with its external fight
against Israel. Aoun may have swept Kesrouan in 2005, but his allies’
actions have moved the district back into play.
Of course, Aoun’s FPM may very well triumph in the elections,
particularly if a year-long political truce has blunted Christian
indignation over a May 2008 Hizbullah offensive on Beirut
(Sunnis, who bore the brunt of the fighting’s consequences, remain
bitter). Importantly, though, close contests exist where none did
before. With the Shiite, Sunni, and Druze seats a foregone conclusion,
only the Christian corridor running through Lebanon’s center is up
for grabs.
Christian division may have contributed to a fall from grace, but
it has also carried the seeds of new relevance. With Lebanon’s other
communities squarely in one regional camp or another, Christians are
the sole wildcard. Those playing games in the Middle East had better
take notice.
Anthony Elghossain is a J.D. candidate at The George Washington
University Law School and a former journalist for The Daily Star.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
