ROAD MAP OF DISCORD
by Andrei Korbut

WPS Agency
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
May 12, 2009 Tuesday
Russia

THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH RAPPROCHEMENT TIGHTENS THE KNOT OF THE
KARABAKH CONFLICT; Will the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement help with
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement?

Armenia and Turkey made another go at rapprochement. With no diplomatic
relations between these two countries, the state border has been
closed since 1993 on the pretext of the latent and so far unsolved
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Badgered by the United States and
other Western countries, Ankara and Yerevan reactivated the bilateral
process despite objections raised by the political opposition.

Joint statement made by the foreign ministries of Armenia and Turkey
and the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland was
published on April 22. The document stated that the involved parties
had made considerable progress in the matter of normalization of the
bilateral relations and hailed them for mutual understanding. Authors
of the document emphasized that the principles agreed upon allow for
continuation of the negotiations.

The statement was released on the eve of anniversary of the genocide
of the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.

Addressing the Armenian community on April 24, US President Barack
Obama used the Armenian word for "genocide" and this indirectly
recognized the fact that this ethnic minority had been oppressed in
the Ottoman Empire.

Official Ankara took it in stride and but reiterated the intention
to normalize relations with Armenia. The whole issue of genocide in
the meantime remains on the Armenian-Turkish agenda. Turkey denies
genocide and insists on a professional panel (of historians) that will
study the matter. Armenia demands from Turkey to recognize genocide of
the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Turkey in its turn demands that
Armenia and Azerbaijan finally settle the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Anyway, certain progress in the bilateral relations is undeniable
indeed. Turkish newspaper Sabah reported that the so called Road
Map action plan Ankara and Yerevan had agreed on included five
steps. First, Armenia ratifies the Treaty of Kars (1921). Second, the
state border between Turkey and Armenia is to be open again. Third,
Armenia and Turkey establish diplomatic missions again. Fourth,
parliaments of both countries ratify the Road Map. And fifth, a
panel of historians is set up. According to Sabah, however, the Road
Map actually stipulates that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is
settled first.

There is no saying of course whether or not the Turkish newspaper is
to be believed but that the Azerbaijani leadership remained blissfully
unaware of the progress made in the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement is
a fact. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was recently quoted as
saying that "… information on the Road Map contents is equivocal"
but "… the region and the Azerbaijani are entitled to being kept
updated." "We want to know if the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is on
the agenda yet," Aliyev said. "That’s a simple question and we want
a simple answer to it."

The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and even veteran servicemen
who were supposed to remain neutral on the issue are clearly distressed
by the possibility of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. Colonel
Arkady Karapetjan, the first commander of the Karabakh Self-Defense
Forces and active participant in the Karabakh movement, told this
correspondent that he expected no good to come of the Armenian-Turkish
agreement.

"First, no good ever comes of whatever is done behind the people’s back
and we have lots of example in history proving this point. Second,
they believe for some reason that it’s all right to promote "mutual
respect" and "neighborly relations" at our expense. Proclaiming the
borders open, Turkey actually continues the blockade and proceeds
with aggressive actions against Armenia in absolute defiance of
international law," Karapetjan said.

The Armenian opposition is of the same frame of mind. It is convinced
that reactivation of the Armenian-Turkish relations cannot help
leading everyone involved into a cul-de-sac because sooner or later
Turkey will demand from Armenia to settle the conflict over Karabakh.

Richard Giragosjan, Director of the Armenian Center for Strategic
and National Studies, called the Armenian-Turkish Road Map a "tragic
development" for Armenia.

Russian political scientists share this skeptical pessimism. "There are
certain obstacles like, for example, official position of the Turkish
leadership that regards Karabakh conflict settlement on Azerbaijani
terms as the first condition for advancement of the Turkish-Armenian
relations. The United States in the meantime insists on normalization
of the Turkish-Armenian relations without any preliminary conditions
which is fine and dandy by Yerevan, but… Saying it is easier
than doing. Anyway, the very fact that Washington insists on it
plainly shows that ideas concerning the situation in the Caucasus
are discussed in the language of the United States rather than that
of Russia. That’s a fairly alarming trend clearly visible in Moscow’s
relations with Yerevan and some other post-Soviet capitals," to quote
Andrei Areshev, Assistant Director of the Strategic Culture Foundation.

The US Department of State hailed the joint Armenian-Turkish
declaration concerning normalization of the bilateral relations. Turkey
in its turn promised Azerbaijan that it wouldn’t be slighted. Position
of Turkey and its allies (the United States and, broader, the Western
community) is unequivocal: internationalization of the conflict,
solution to the territorial problems of Nagorno-Karabakh for
stabilization of the region.

Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group meanwhile arranged for presidents
Aliyev and Serj Sargsjan (Armenia) to meet in Prague on May 7
and continue the conflict settlement talks. Observers expect no
breakthroughs from the meeting.

People keep getting killed in the conflict area. According to what
information became available to the media alone, at least 15 residents
of Karabakh were killed and as many wounded in 2008. The Azerbaijanis
lost 12 killed and 3 wounded. French Chairman Bernard Fassier said
30 had been killed in skirmishes in 2008 and 6 in 2009. Most men in
the conflict area are killed by snipers.