NOT ENOUGH SILK FOR NABUCCO
Pyotr Iskenderov

en.fondsk.ru
19.05.2009

Energy of the Future

The organizers of the new "Drang nach Osten" in Brussels were
disappointed with the results of the "Southern Corridor-new Silk
Road" conference, which was held in Prague on May 8 as part of the
Eastern Partnership Summit Format. It was expected that former Soviet
republics, which yet had not been invited to join the Partnership
(EU wants Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, Egypt and Iraq to comprise the ‘new silk route’), would
confirm their intention to approve the EU`s energy policy (in which
Russia is not viewed as partner). The key moment of the conference
would have become the ratification of a political declaration on
Nabucco, which says that all EU members countries involved in the
project, EU membership candidate Turkey and former Central Asian
republics of the Soviet Union should undertake all necessary efforts
to sign an intergovernmental agreement on Nabucco by June 2009.

But Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the countries which are
expected to supply gas to the EU through the Nabucco pipe, refused
to sign the anti-Russian declaration. The authors of the document did
not even mention Moscow as a key EU`s energy partner but attempted to
torpedo the agreements Russia had already signed with its partners
on purchasing natural gas an its transportation to Europe via the
existing pipe lines and the construction of the South Stream gas pipe
(from the Black Sea to Bulgaria and further to Italy and Austria).

Why they were in such a hurry? The reason is quite clear. Brussels
expects to put the Nabucco gas pipe in operation in 2014 in order
to outrun the South Stream, at least for a few months. But since
some Balkan states (Bulgaria,Hungary and Serbia) had already signed
bilateral agreements with Russia, the EU planned to achieve a deal
between a greater number of countries to repudiate the already existing
agreements (if not de jure, at least de facto).

The scenario for bandoned their Cold War thinking and continue to
play geopolitical games which show ‘zero result’.

On May 14 President of Bulgaria Georgy Pyrvanov published an article
in the country’s most circulated Trud newspaper daily. Although the
article says nothing about either the Eastern Partnership or the "new
Silk Road", it is obvious that Mr. Pyrvanov wrote it after the EU had
failed to press former Soviet republics on the Nabucco project. He
emphasizes the need of cooperation with Russia and suggests that the
South Stream project be as important for the EU as Nabucco.

"When we talk about energy security, we can`t ignore Russia. It
is necessary to decide whether the diversification policy will be
implemented without Russia’s participation, or will Russia, EU and
other countries rich in energy resources develop their strategic
cooperation. Russia will remain Europe’s major energy supplier, and
thus any attempts to ‘isolate’ Russia would have undermined the process
of diversification and hampered Russia-EU cooperation in many other
spheres. In the meantime, partnership with Russia would have put the
international energy cooperation on a brand new level",- President of
Bulgaria writes. Mr. Pyrvanov says both projects are necessary in the
interests of energy security and due to anticipated gas demand until
2025 and further. "Bulgaria makes its own contribution to the process
and will continue the implementation of both projects since for the EU
Nabucco is a project of high priority. But I also believe the South
Stream must be on the agenda as well. We cannot make far-reaching
plans on energy security without Russia. However, we want Moscow to
understand that we are going to defend our national interests-like it
was during the talks in January 2008, when we signed an equal agreement
on the South Stream, and like it was this spring. We should stick
to the agreements which have been made". The Eastern Partnership and
the Nabucco project in particular have already faced some financial
difficulties. Although the EU leaders were all smiles on 7-8 May in
Prague and looked optimistic, the initiators of the Nabucco project say
the pipeline is estimated to $7,3billion (about 5,4 billion euros), and
all the money will be from the EU budget. At the conference in Prague,
the sides approved a program which stipulates a 600-million euro aid to
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldavia and Ukraine until 2013.

Apparently, the Eastern Partnership aims to isolate Russia from the
process of energy cooperation despite the likelihood of financial and
political loses. However, not all countries in Eastern Europe, to say
nothing about the leading energy producing countries, are ready to step
on this slippery path. Although maybe too cautious, the conclusions
made by the President of Bulgaria in his article prove this quite well.