PRESIDENT SARGSYAN’S "OTHER" FOREIGN POLICY: TREND NEWS COMMENTATOR
Trend News Agency
May 19 2009
Azerbaijan
Trend News European Desk commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva.
Observers and mediators do not get tired to speak, if not about break,
then about significant advances in the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh
problem. Indeed, over the last year of Serzh Sargsyan’s presidency,
the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has intensified
and even acquired a systematic nature – the two Presidents met four
times for one year.
Moreover, silence between Turkey and Armenia over the last seventeen
years was broken this year. There even was a possibility of opening the
border between these countries, even through following preconditions.
Armenia’s foreign policy can be divided into three periods: the policy
of Levon Ter-Petrossian, Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan. Sargsyan
began very actively to solve foreign policy issues, which was not
made by previous presidents, immediately after coming to power.
Yerevan qualitatively and significantly changed its foreign policy, but
is the Armenian political elite and establishment pleased? Alas, no.
Serzh Sargsyan is in a very precarious position within his own country
and in his relations with the powerful global Armenian Diaspora. The
Dashnaktsutsun party left the ruling coalition because of the
disagreement with the policy of establishing diplomatic relations
with Turkey. Dashnaktsutsun turned to opposition forces.
Given party’s national focus and its close relationship with the
international Armenian lobby, Dashnaktsutsun is a potentially serious
opponent for the current government.
This party could be the last hope for the Armenian lobby to bring
Armenia to desired line after the next presidential elections.
Dashnaktsutsun focused primarily on domestic political effect of
this step, giving the party the revolutionary color of opposition
forces, and rid it of responsibility for coalition’s inconvenient
consequences. The failure of Sargsyan’s policy has been repeatedly
linked with the Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkish processes by party
representatives.
Armenians’ dream to occupy others’ territories has been run the
risk during Sargsyan’s presidency. The idea on a possible agreement
seems blasphemy for the population. Major negotiators to resolve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs – do not use
the disposition of Armenian press. President’s activity, as well as
the activity of negotiators and representatives of Turkish political
system has been criticized on the political scene in Armenia.
A dangerous situation occurred round the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
head of the Dashnaktsutsun Revolution Federation Parliamentary Group
Vaan Ovannisyan said, the Mediamax reported.
"This situation has arisen because of our unreasonable policy towards
Turkey. It is not a secret that one of the main preconditions for the
restoration of Turkey’s relations with Armenia is the subordination
of Armenian interests to Azerbaijan’s in Karabakh and forced Armenia
to make assignments," Ovannisyan said.
If a real progress would be in the Karabakh conflict through signing of
a basic document, then Armenia will face heated internal developments
and perhaps even a political crisis that will focus to replace the
leadership.
Not only the political elite, but also the establishment is not pleased
with president’s policy. Experts and observers are asking a timely
question: What would happen if Turkey did decide to open the border
with Armenia? The first thing that threatens to Armenia is that after
opening of the notorious border with a fragile economic system, it will
be subjected to instant and fully justified Turkish economic expansion
Using advanced oligarchic system in Armenia’s economy, Turkey would be
able to simply "buy" Armenian oligarchs that significantly undermine
the national security of the country.
So whether President Sargsyan well to insist on improving the
long-frozen relations between Armenia and a half of neighboring
countries? The answer is not obvious, because strangely enough,
and what would be beneficial for the country, alas, will not please
the population.