SMALL KNIGHTS OF BIG POLITICS

Hayots Ashkharh
April 29 2009

Yesterday, political expert Igor Muradyan was the guest of the De
Facto club. He interpreted the latest events linked to the processes
of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and genocide [killings
of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1918] recognition from the
broad-spectrum geopolitical developments aspect.

The analyst was convinced that the genocide recognition by any state
in the world should not be separated from geopolitical processes. He
cited the example of France which recognized the genocide in order,
first of all, to close the European Union doors in front of Turkey. As
to the US policy, Muradyan noted that in the years of the George Bush
administration it was more predictable and that the focus was mainly
on the issues the calculations of which were evidently proceeding
from that state’s interests.

He thought that the situation was a little bit different now. "Those
who are governing today, who have come to power with humanitarian
slogans and strive to regulate different regional issues actually
repeat Bill Clinton’s "The USA has intentions to actively interfere
in international relations and also in the regional policies. Today
whatever is happening is the reflection of that new policies. But in
the years of Bill Clinton’s presidency the USA had more opportunities
to consistently ensure its presence everywhere than today in condition
of the economic crisis."

The political expert was of the opinion that in addition, other changes
also took place in the world in the last years which could hamper the
US policies. New nuclear powers and "regional macro powers" emerged who
tend to control their regions. "So the new US policies, as I observe,
will be inconsistent and hence incomprehensive for the majority."

Turkey is one of the regional macro powers that try to independently
pursue their policies. "Turkey is leading with its foreign policy. And
the USA cannot let this happen. And yet in the 1990’s the USA developed
means to stop Turkey’s political ambition. In this the Armenian factor
is the most delicate and effective one."

As to the genocide recognition policy, "it is one of the important
constituents of the geopolitical matrix. So we should look at it from
that angle. Whatever is happening today is the result of a systemic
approach of the world policies."

Muradyan noted that though "mets yeghern" (massacre) expression had
been pronounced by the American administration, on other occasions
such approach would not record any results, from the legal point of
view, in the genocide recognition process. In regard to [US President
Barack] Obama’s 24 April [day of commemoration of the killings in
the Ottoman Empire] address he added: "Turkey found itself in an
unpleasant situation. Here the important point is not that expression
but the text of the speech. It opens the opportunity for the American
public to go to the end in their genocide recognition efforts. Obama’s
speech is just the president’s announcement but a law is adopted by
the Congress."

As to the prospects of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations and
opening the border he said: "It will be possible only if Turkey
understands that exploitation of the Armenian factor by the others
damages them immensely.

There is a chance that the USA-EU alliance, acting within the framework
of transatlantic interests, will lead Turkey to that situation.

"And there won’t be any alliance between Russia and Turkey since
Turkey cannot exist without its Western partners’ financial support. So
there are obstacles for the Turkish desire to expand towards the east."

Muradyan had a careful attitude towards the Armenian-Turkish foreign
ministers’ joint statement signed in Switzerland because he had
concerns that the processes would not take the desirable turn. A
process was built in the course of which nothing was changed within the
short period but in the long term unexpected results could be recorded.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress