Today’s Zaman, Turkey
May 24 2009
Normalization and Peace in the South Caucasus: Ä°s it still possible?
by
SUAT KINIKLIOÄ?LU
Where are we now with the normalization process between Turkey and
Armenia? What is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group process? Are
the optimistic predictions for a stable Caucasus over?
These are some of the questions that continue to occupy the minds of
people who are concerned with the South Caucasus. Such questions also
busy decision-makers and pundits outside the region. If a sober
stocktaking is needed — maybe this is the time to do it.
First of all, we must underline that the normalization process between
Turkey and Armenia is still on track. True, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip ErdoÄ?an’s speech to the Azerbaijani parliament and the
press conference in Baku has produced an atmosphere that suggests the
process has become more problematic, but the fact remains that the
sides are committed to continuing the process. It was never going to
be easy, and frankly, I was predicting opposition to Turkish-Armenian
normalization to materialize even earlier. If it was going to be easy,
this issue would have been resolved much earlier. The fact that the
challenges appear to be greater for Turkish-Armenian normalization
should not discourage us. Ultimately, the basic reasons why
normalization is important remain there.
There is no doubt — and recent weeks confirm that — that
Turkish-Armenian normalization contributes positively to the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. From a selfish point of
prioritization, we need to focus on Turkish-Armenian normalization and
the Karabakh peace process simultaneously. When it comes to these two
issues, one needs to see them as two parallel processes which are
`mutually reinforcing each other.’ There is a certain level of
`interaction’ between them, and from this perspective, they need to be
monitored closely. It is satisfying that all three Minsk Group
co-chairmen — from France, Russia and the US — have a common
position on the Karabakh peace process and are working together to
bring the sides closer to a roadmap for a solution. However, without
the necessary political will in Baku and Yerevan, it will not suffice.
Having said that, we believe there is a historic opportunity at hand
and almost all of the stars are lined up in the right
place. Therefore, all parties must contribute to make this historic
rapprochement a reality. A normalized South Caucasus will benefit
Russia and Turkey as well as the three states of the South
Caucasus. Russia particularly bears significant responsibility as it
has great influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan and is a traditionally
powerful actor in this region. The European Union and the United
States also have an interest in seeing normalization and the peace
process on Karabakh succeed. What needs to be done? First of all,
there is no doubt that public opinion on all sides is having an
unhelpful effect and therefore must be managed carefully. Secondly,
there needs to be leadership and vision to carry these two very
delicate processes through. Thirdly, the US, Russia and the EU must
bring appropriate pressure to bear.
The coming weeks and months will be critical in seeing how this
process will evolve. There is no doubt that no one will have the
luxury of an extended vacation this summer. There needs to be hard
work done this summer to hopefully facilitate a breakthrough.
Turkey, as a regional hegemon toward which all eyes are directed,
bears a heavy burden in this issue. Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan
must rise to the occasion and should view this as a win-win
situation. We owe peace in the South Caucasus to our children and our
peoples.
24 May 2009, Sunday