TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA TRIANGLE
Kamer Kasim

Journal of Turkish Weekly
May 27 2009

Continuing negotiations in order to normalize relations between Turkey
and Armenia produced a "Road Map", which created discussions also
about Turkey-Azerbaijan relations and future of the politics of the
Caucasus, particularly, security and energy dimension of it. Although
Turkey recognized Armenia as an independent state, normal diplomatic
ties have not been established between the two countries and the
territorial borders of the two neighbours were closed. Armenian
genocide allegations and the Armenian policy towards the allegations
and Armenian administrations’ hesitance to accept inviolability of
borders prevented the normal diplomatic relations to be established
between Turkey and Armenia. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also caused
the closure of Turkish-Armenian land border. Since Turkey closed the
land border with Armenia, after the Armenian occupation of Kelbecer.

There were negotiations between Turkey and Armenia, which reached
a new stage in 2009, with the "Road Map". The developments in the
Caucasus in August 2008 had also implications on Turkish-Armenian
relations. The conflict between Russia and Georgia changed the West’s
view about Russia, and also increased Turkey’s strategic importance for
the West in the Caucasus. There are parallels between the developments
in August 2008 and events just at the end of the Second World War, when
eastern European states became under the control of the Soviet Union,
and Stalin demanded military stations in Bosporus and territory from
Turkey. These developments, and increasing tension between East and
West, opened the way for Turkey’s membership of NATO in 1952. Similarly
today, tension between Russia and the West forced the Caucasian states
to recalculate their strategic parameters and foreign policies. The
US also reassessed its policy towards Armenia after the Russia-Georgia
conflict. Some policy makers in the US thought that Armenia should be
tied to the West and "rescued" from the Russian domination as soon as
possible. The key country in this strategy is Turkey. For this reason
Turkey faced pressure to open the land border with Armenia. The US and
Europe wanted dialogue to be started between Turkey and Armenia. In
this atmosphere, the Armenian President’s invitation to the Turkish
President to watch together a football match between the two national
teams was seen as reminiscent of the ping-pong diplomacy during the
thaw in US-Chinese relations in 1971. After long discussions, Turkish
President Abdullah Gul went to Armenia for the football match on 6
September 2008.

Armenia also faced difficulty during the conflict between Russia
and Georgia since Georgia is important for Armenia’s trade to the
outside world. Two thirds of foreign goods come to Armenia from
Georgia. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey were closed due
to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Armenia’s dependency on Russia should
be reconsidered after the Russian-Georgian crisis, and Armenia should
also consider its relations with Turkey in this atmosphere. These
were the factors that the Armenian administration considered in the
rapprochement with Turkey. For Turkey to normalize its relations with
Armenia would support its zero problem with neighbors policy and would
reduce pressure from the US and the EU. It would also be helpful for
the US administration to prevent Armenian diaspora’s attempts to pass
a resolution supporting "genocide" allegations from the Congress.

The establishment of the normal diplomatic relations between Turkey
and Armenia depends on Armenia’s position regarding the 1915 events
and Armenia’s acceptance of inviolability of the Turkish-Armenian
border. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian land border depends
on the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In the current
situation and the stage, Turkey would expect Armenia to accept its
proposal to set up an international commission to search the 1915
events. The idea to set up a scientific commission and study the
matter is an idea that the Armenian diaspora strongly rejected. To
establish normal diplomatic relations Armenia should also sign a
declaration to accept inviolability of borders with Turkey. There are
problems due to the Armenian Declaration of Independence (article 11)
and statements from high level Armenian officials regarding this issue.

It seems that after the long negotiations there are improvements in the
above mentioned issues regarding the establishment of the diplomatic
relations between Turkey and Armenia. However there are also still
risks about these issues. Armenian domestic politics and opposition of
some political groups for the rapprochement with Turkey pose potential
danger for the negotiations. The Armenian government might have less
constrain after the withdrawal of Armenian Revolutionary Front from
the coalition government. However, Armenian diaspora and their efforts
to get a resolution about the allegations from the Congress create
another danger for the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. If the US
administration manages to reduce the diaspora’s influence on Armenia,
that would be helpful to improving Turkish-Armenian relations.

The opening of Turkish-Armenian land border is more difficult
issue since it depends on the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Negotiations conducted under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk
Group have not produced a result and "Frozen Conflict" situation has
continued since the cease fire of 1994. The occupation of the territory
of Azerbaijan and the use of force to change the recognized borders of
Azerbaijan were violations of the Helsinki Final Act, the UN Charter,
Charter of Paris and OSCE decisions. Azerbaijan expects the UN and
international community to take the lead to end the occupation of
its territories. There were several UN Security Council Resolutions
calling for withdrawal of the occupying forces: UN Security Council
Resolution 822, passed on 30th April 1993; resolution 853 passed on
29th July 1993; resolution 874 passed on 14th October 1993 and 884
passed on 11th November 1993. The most recent important resolution
was adopted in the 62nd session of the UN General Assembly on 14th
of March 2008. The resolution on "The situation in the occupied
territories of Azerbaijan" was adopted with 39 votes in favor, seven
against and 100 abstentions. The resolution supports the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan within its internationally recognized borders
and demands the withdrawal of all Armenian forces from the occupied
territories of Azerbaijan. The resolution confirms the integral
right of the population expelled from the occupied territories of
Azerbaijan to return to the homes. The position of the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs regarding the UN resolution disappointed Azerbaijan,
since all co-chairs voted against the resolution.

The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Prague to discuss the
problem. However, they have not reached an agreement yet. Possible
solution would be on the basis of Madrid Principles of November
2007. Both sides also signed declaration in Moscow in November 2008.

Armenia would benefit much more than Turkey in the case of the
opening of the land border between the two countries. Armenia could
not be a meaningful economic partner for Turkey since Armenia’s trade
volume so small and its economy is very much depends on out side
help. However, as was shown during the Russian-Georgian conflict,
for the stability of the Armenian economy, it would be necessary for
Armenia to have open land border with Turkey and to normalize its
relations with all neighboring countries. For Turkey, Azerbaijan is
more important country than Armenia in terms of Azerbaijan’s energy
resources and economic potential. Therefore Azerbaijan’s reactions
are being considered by Turkey in the process of rapprochement with
Armenia. Energy issue should also be taken in to account in the
politics of the Caucasus. Russia wants to continue its domination on
the natural gas and opposed the Nabucco project, which would reduce
Turkey’s and other European countries’ dependency on Russia. Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan’s support are crucial for the future of the Nabucco
project. Therefore Western states should be careful about Russia’s
attempt to damage relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan and/or
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Russia may not be very keen for the
solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the normalization
of Turkish-Armenian relations, since Russia wants its military and
economic domination continue in Armenia. Democratization would make
Armenia closer to the Western states and would also help to normalize
its relations with Turkey. A democratic Armenia might also find ways
to decrease Russian, "Cold War era type" domination over Armenia and
Armenia would follow a multi dimensional foreign policy.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress