LEBANON’S CHRISTIANS STAND TO PLAY ELECTION KINGMAKERS
Rana Moussaoui

Agence France Presse
May 27, 2009 Wednesday 1:34 AM GMT

Lebanon’s divided Christians represent the swing vote in a legislative
election in which the Iranian-backed Hezbollah is vying to oust the
pro-Western faction which currently dominates parliament.

"The Christian vote will tip the balance," Melhem Chaoul, a sociology
professor at the state-run Lebanese University, told AFP.

"They are the arbiters from a numerical or technical viewpoint rather
than because of their political weight."

Once the dominant community in terms of numbers, Lebanon’s Christians
are now a minority made up mainly of Catholics, Maronites, Orthodox
and Armenians.

For decades, Christian emigration from Lebanon was rampant and their
numbers have shrunk inexorably over the years.

Today, Christians make up an estimated 35 percent of Lebanon’s four
million inhabitants and their political loyalty is deeply divided
between the two camps facing off in the June 7 vote.

One side, ironically identified in Lebanese circles as the "Shiite
Christians," backs the Hezbollah alliance while the so-called "Sunni
Christians" favour the curent majority led by Saad Hariri, son of
slain ex-premier Rafiq Hariri.

"Lebanon’s Christians have failed to create for themselves a true
force capable of transcending the political divisions in the country,"
Chaoul said.

He was referring to the political crisis that shook Lebanon in the
aftermath of Rafiq Hariri’s murder in 2005 and brought the country
close to civil war last year.

"The Christians didn’t manage to set their own political agenda and
simply follow one side or the other," Chaoul added. "Some campaign
with the Shiites against the Sunnis, and vice versa."

A campaign banner for one of the few independent candidates sums up
the reality on the ground.

"We do not want a Shiite Maronite, we do not want a Sunni Maronite,
we want a true Maronite: Yes to a strong Christian role," it reads.

The 1990 Taif Accord, which helped bring an end to Lebanon’s 15-year
civil war and Syria’s dominant role in Lebanese affairs for nearly
30 years, stripped the Christians of much of their power.

But thanks to Lebanon’s complex confessional system, they can still
influence the outcome of the upcoming legislative poll as the 128 seats
in parliament are allocated equally between Christians and Muslims.

For that reason, candidates in a handful of districts will be battling
to win over the Christian vote.

One key battleground, for example, will be the eastern town of Zahle,
a Christian stronghold in the mainly Muslim Bekaa Valley, where five
seats reserved for Christian candidates are up for grabs.

The outcome of the vote for the town’s two other parliamentary seats,
one for a Sunni candidate and another for a Shiite, is already a given.

"If it weren’t for the Christians, there would be no electoral battle,"
said Okab Sakr, a Muslim candidate allied with the US-backed majority
in Zahle.

The town’s voters, for their part, say they are preparing for a tough
battle to ensure ther side wins.

"If Hezbollah wins, we risk another war with Israel and Syria
will regain its influence here," said Elie Hallak, a 56-year-old
teacher. "It already has a lot of power, and if it wins, it will do
what it pleases."

Tamar Apkarian, an Armenian supporter of the Hezbollah-led faction,
disagrees.

"As long as there is no guarantee that Israel will not attack us,
we need Hezbollah’s weapons to defend our country," she said.