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Ma y 29, 2009

1. A state within a state?: May 31 elections launch a new government
model for Yerevan

2. Election trivia: FAQ for Yerevan polls

3. Urban planning: Voters largely skeptical of pledges by politicians
in local race to respect `Tamanyan Yerevan’

**4.** Elections or Balance of Power: What will change in Armenia’s
political arena after May 31**

5. Election cleanup: Asphalting, tree pruning, garbage removal help
spruce up Yerevan ahead of municipal vote

6. Media and mayoral race: Parties say TV mostly neutral, newspapers
divided in Yerevan election coverage

7.** Elections and geopolitics: How regional tangles can influence
Yerevan polls

8. Awaited amnesty: President Sargsyan gives hope, but fails to
impress opposition

9. Tatev in Focus of Attention: Ninth century monastery latest tourism
site highlighted by AMAP

10. Weathering the Storm: economic crisis in focus

11. Policy Forum: Economists predict further decline of economy

12. **Battle of Shushi: Pan-Armenian charity plans landmark fundraising
for key Karabakh town

13. AGMA: Musa Dagh photo collection for Armenian genocide museum in
Washington

14. Sport: Armenia secures seven medals at AIBA world junior
championships in Yerevan

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1. A state within a state?: May 31 elections launch a new government model
for Yerevan

By Gayane Abrahamyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

In two days Yerevan residents will, for the first time since 1992, go to the
polls to elect a city assembly and indirectly a city mayor, thus launching
a
new government model for the city according to which Yerevan will,
figuratively speaking, become a small parliamentarian state within a state,
with its separate budget, police, `parliament’ (a 65-seat assembly) and
`president’ (mayor).

The first time Yerevan residents had an opportunity to elect an assembly and
mayor was 130 years ago, in 1879, when they elected Yerevan’s first head
and
members of the Duma. In Soviet years, the mayor was elected also by members
of the city council that in turn was elected through a direct popular vote.
However, in 1995, after the adoption of the Constitution of the Republic of
Armenia, the post of the mayor became an `appointed’ one and it was only at
the request of the Council of Europe (to which Armenia acceded in 2001) that
it became `elected’ again.

The government model and the law have been changed. But what will change in
the lives of ordinary Yerevan residents when the elections are over and the
tall promises typical of the election campaigns become history?

Some say that the new model will enable a better use of the city’s resources
and provide more effective governance; however, many insist that in reality
nothing will change in the life of Yerevan residents, or if it will, the
change will be for the worse.

`As the saying goes, they mean to fix the eyebrow, but end up damaging both
the eyebrow and the eye,’ says former parliament member and expert in the
law on local government bodies Sos Gimishyan. `Yerevan needs a two-tier
government system, that is, elected prefects and an elected mayor, but now
we have neither.’

In line with the Law `On the Local Government in the City of Yerevan’,
the
institution of elected prefects that has operated since 1996 will be
abolished and instead the new mayor will appoint so-called administrative
leaders that will be accountable not to their constituencies but to those
who appointed them.

`While in the past [city district] prefects were closer to their residents
[constituencies] and at least on the threshold of elections spared no effort
to take care of the needs of the area’s residents and mainly tried to
satisfy potential voters, then now access to them will be essentially
blocked for residents, as in any case they will not be dependent on voters,’
explains Gimishyan.

The election of the mayor for a city that holds more than a third of the
country’s populace and where a considerable part of the national economic
and financial strength is concentrated appears a more intricate issue.

The mayor will be elected by the assembly and it is the assembly that later
can dismiss the mayor by a move of its third, but only a year after the
mayor’s election.

The debate about this indirect election does not cease and the `bonus’
provision introduced into the election code in January only heated it up and
drew more critical and skeptical reactions.

`It is because of this `bonus’ that even the coalition members will go for
each other’s throats during the campaign and then during the election,’ says
People’s Party chairman Tigran Karapetyan, who tops his party’s ticket
in
the May 31 elections.

Under the law, the top candidate of the party that polls more than 50
percent of the vote automatically becomes mayor. If there is no party that
gains an absolute majority, the major is elected from among the candidates
nominated by all parties that enter the body.

The so-called `bonus’ provision implies, however, that if any party manages
to gain 40 percent plus one vote, then it will be given an additional 10
percent as a bonus and thus this party will gain the majority and the right
to install its top candidate as mayor.

Co-author of the law Hrair Tovmasyan says this bonus was introduced for the
sake of preserving stability.

`Without this bonus it would mean that the party that gets 40 percent will
still have to negotiate with others, in which case everything might depend,
say, on the party that gathered least votes, and this may cause clashes,
corruption risks, pressures. And this bonus provision was introduced to
avoid all this,’ Tovmasyan explains to ArmeniaNow.

However, many insist that it is a violation of the principle of equality
during elections and directly contradicts to the Constitution.

`This is not an election,’ says MP Stepan Safaryan from the opposition
Heritage faction. `The party that gathers more than 40 percent gets a bonus,
but the rest 60 percent can, before the assembly session or during it,
combine their efforts and make a [real] majority that will allow them to
elect another candidate. And you [refers to the authors of the law] foist a
majority on us with a bonus and in fact foist a `bonus’ mayor on us. This
isn’t a seasonal sale discount, is it?’

Despite the long debate, the bonus provision still stays and it is possible
that in a few days we will already have a `bonus mayor’, who, by the way,
will have quite wide powers.

As independent MP Victor Dallakyan says, the mayor has wider powers than
even the president. The mayor is placed in charge of the whole property of
Yerevan communities, as well as state institutions, enterprises with state
shares, lands, etc.

It is the mayor who disposes of the Yerevan budget funds and ensures their
purposeful use, solves problems in the urban construction sphere, land
allocation, gives rights to land usage.

By the new government system, Yerevan will have its own budget whose funds
will be generated from the taxing of land and property located in the
territory of Yerevan. Part of income tax and profit tax that enter the state
budget will be also provided to Yerevan (it is not yet decided how big that
part is going to be) and there will be another 24 sources of revenues for
the city.

Even agricultural matters are within the mayor’s powers. The mayor must
implement measures envisaged under state programs of preventing diseases of
agricultural crops and fighting pests and weeds and even `implement works on
precise registration of heads of livestock.’

This new system is not for improving Yerevan, but for increasing instruments
of their own power,’ says Heritage’s Safaryan. `And extended powers mean
much power. It is not without reason that the governing parties are jostling
for this position with such great vigor.’

The powers of the 65-seat assembly are also wide. It will control the
activities of the mayor, the budget, it will be empowered to check any
budget action, demand an account, it is to confirm the appointments of
district prefects made by the mayor, as wells as heads of departments at the
municipality itself.

However, the hope of coming to power through the municipal assembly that the
opposition has is not that realistic, since in the event of any significant
opposition from the assembly the country’s government is entitled to
dissolve it and appoint pre-term city elections.

`The history and experience of the parliament shows that the legislature
mainly rubberstamps decisions made by the executive, in this case this will
be the mayor, and one should not connect great hopes with this new system
where, like in parliament, issues will be raised, commissions will be set up
for examining issues, however in reality nothing will be done,’ concludes
political analyst Martin Poghosyan.

************************************** ***********************************

2. Election trivia: FAQ for Yerevan polls

By Gayane Abrahamyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

While media attention in the last four weeks of campaigning has been
reasonably focused on what politicians promise and analysts predict for the
upcoming elections of the Yerevan municipal assembly, the legislatively
imposed `day of silence’ on the eve of the vote seems a natural time for
reflection on what the current elections are and what they mean for voters
and political parties in the city that is officially home to more than a
third of Armenia’s 3.2 million-strong population.

Below is some basic information of interest to both voters and observers in
the May 31 Yerevan elections compiled by ArmeniaNow reporter Gayane
Abrahamyan in a `digestible’ Question-and-Answer format.

Information on election coverage and returns may also be found at
sponsored by International Research and Exchanges
Board (IREX) and prepared by journalists who include ArmeniaNow staff.

ABOUT THOSE SEEKING ELECTION

Q. What are the May 31 elections and what is their significance?

A. On Sunday, May 31, eligible voters in Armenian capital Yerevan will go
to the polls to elect a 65-seat municipal assembly that they will entrust
with electing the city’s next mayor at the first session.

What makes the current elections significant is that they enable citizens in
Yerevan to elect, even though indirectly, their mayor, something they have
been unable to do since 1995 when the constitution adopted in a referendum
made the mayor of Yerevan a president-appointed post. This also in practice
implied that the mayor would be more dependent on and accountable to the
head of state than to his or her constituencies, i.e. the townsfolk. This
`undemocratic’ model of city governance had to be revised after the 2005
constitutional reform that was part of the country’s commitments to the
Council of Europe.

Q. Who are we electing?

A. Only political parties or blocs are eligible to participate in the
elections to the Yerevan municipal assembly under the system of proportional
representation. The top candidate on each party’s ticket is the likely
candidate for the mayoral post, i.e. by voting for the party voters also
cast their vote for its top candidate to become mayor.

Six political parties, namely (in no particular order) the Republican Party
of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia, Orinats Yerkir, the Labor Socialist Party of
Armenia, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the
People’s Party, and one bloc, namely the Armenian National Congress, are
participating in the upcoming elections.

Q. Is there a hurdle for political forces to clear to be voted into the
municipal assembly?

A. Political parties must poll at least 7 percent of the popular vote and
blocs need to clear a 9-percent hurdle to be represented in the assembly.
Some experts consider this barrier high enough to amount to discrimination
against smaller parties. Despite months of debates this provision has
remained unchanged.

Q. How will the mayor be elected?

A. Any political party or bloc that sweeps the election polling more than
50 percent of the vote will automatically be entitled to install its top
candidate as mayor. If none of the participating forces manages to win an
outright majority, the mayor will be elected, by a simple vote, from among
the candidates nominated by the forces voted into the assembly.

An amendment made in the electoral code in January introduced the notion of
so-called bonus, which means that if any party or bloc manages to gain 40
percent of the vote, an additional 10 percent will be given to it as a bonus
to form an absolute majority and become entitled to have its top candidate
as new mayor.

ABOUT THOSE ELECTING

Q. Who is eligible to vote?

A. All citizens who have attained the age of 18 and have a permanent
legal address or at least have been registered for a year in Yerevan are
eligible to vote in the May 31 elections. This applies not only to citizens
of the Republic of Armenia, but also foreigners who have been registered as
residents of Yerevan at least for the past one year. Only soldiers in active
military service are not eligible to vote in these elections.

Q. How to check whether you are on a voter register or not?

A. Voter lists are pasted on all polling stations 40 days before the
elections for voters to be able to check by visiting the station where they
are supposed to or usually cast their ballot (all voters are also to be
notified in writing where their polling station is). Alternatively, all
eligible voters can visit the Central Election Commission’s official website
at

Q. If you don’t find your name on the voter list*85

A. **Before election day:** If a voter finds an inaccuracy in the voter
list, s/he should turn to the community administration office or (until May
26) to the district’s passport department. Call on 8220 for additional
information on the hotline.

On election day: To get his/her name on the extended voter list a voter
should turn to a given community’s court of general jurisdiction or the
police department. For turning to court, a voter should have an authorizing
statement from the chairman of the polling precinct election commission. No
such document is needed, though, if a voter directly turns to police. The
sample form of application for introducing changes in the voter list is
available at the following website: The
addresses and telephone numbers of courts are available at the website

Q. When do the polls open?

A. Polling stations will be open to voters from 8.00 am to 8.00 pm on May
31. The voter who has been in the voting station at the polls closing time
still has the right to cast his or her ballot.

Q. What requisites are needed for voting?

A. A voter must carry an identification document to the polling station
and produce it when required to be allowed to cast a ballot. An
identification document is a passport, a document substituting for a
passport, a military certificate for military officers and non-commissioned
officers, and a military card for other servicemen.

Q. How to fill in the ballot-paper?

A. A ballot-paper will be considered valid only if marked correctly. A
`V’ sign must be put in the box next to the name of the party or bloc
mentioned in the ballot-paper.

Q. If your are unable to mark the ballot yourself*85

A. After informing the election commission chairman about this
circumstance, a voter can invite any person, except a proxy for any party,
to the voting booth for assistance. Otherwise, the presence of another
person in the voting booth is forbidden.

Q. If your passport validity has expired*85

A. A voter whose passport validity has expired still has the right to
vote. This circumstance is no ground for disqualifying a voter.

RISKS OF MALPRACTICES

Q. Is my ballot secret?

A. No one is allowed to know who you voted for. Moreover, inside the
polling station it is prohibited for voters themselves to show or declare
who they have voted or are going to vote for. Those failing to respect this
provision in either circumstance will be prosecuted by law.

Q. If you are offered a bribe*85

A. Both giving and receiving a bribe in exchange for a vote is considered
a crime and those involved in this malpractice will be prosecuted by law
(facing from 3 to 6 years in jail).

Q. Why passport data have been collected (from some) in the pre-election
period and how this data can be used?

A. First, no one has the right to demand a passport or its data from you.
But if you have given it to anyone at any point, don’t worry.

Passport data can be used only if you don’t go to the polls and someone else
can vote instead of you using your data. Otherwise, the data cannot be used
to establish what party or bloc a voter cast his ballot for. The ballot
paper does not mention either the name or passport data of the voter.
Psychological pressure is the only effect of this method and sometimes it
does work.

Q. Are there [hidden] cameras inside the voting booth?

A. There are no cameras inside the voting booth, although some
distributing election bribes might mislead those whom they give the bribes
that cameras are installed inside the voting booths to monitor whether they
vote for the candidate they were given money to vote for. Don’t believe
that, these are groundless threats.

Q. Is taking a picture with your mobile allowed inside the voting booth?

A. This was a reported practice during the latest parliamentary and
presidential elections when a voter would receive money for his vote only if
he or she could prove it with a picture of the filled ballot paper taken
with the aid of a mobile phone camera. But the Central Election Commission
prohibits the use of a mobile phone for any purposes or the use of any other
photographing or recording device inside the voting booth.

Q. Will your passport be stamped?

A. Unlike the previous presidential elections when a voter’s passport was
stamped to prove his participation in the vote (to prevent repeated voting),
this time the Central Election Commission has decided not to use this
practice.

A spokesman for the opposition Armenian National Congress recently claimed
that they had revealed 300 repeated names of citizens (with identical names,
surnames, middle names, dates of birth), in different districts: `And
repeated not once, but five to ten times,’ said Arman Musinyan, emphasizing
that the practice of stamping voter passports would minimize the risk of
repeated voting.

ELECTION RESULTS

Q. When are results expected?

A. Early (preliminary) results will be announced no later than 24 hours
after the end of the voting.

Final results will be announce within seven days after the vote, i.e. by
June 7 when recounts of paper ballots (if required) are to be completed in
election commissions.

Q. What is the procedure of protesting the vote results?

A. Applications demanding a recount at election commissions can be
submitted only to a corresponding precinct election commission by 2.00 pm on
the day after the election. A recount is to be done within five days.

Q. Can election results be appealed at the Constitutional Court?

A. Results of only nationwide elections, such as parliamentary and
presidential elections, can be appealed at the Constitutional Court.
Elections to the Yerevan municipal assembly are considered to be a local
election and to appeal the results of these elections parties may appeal to
the court of general jurisdiction.

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3. Urban planning: Voters largely skeptical of pledges by politicians in
local race to respect `Tamanyan Yerevan’

By Gayane Lazarian

ArmeniaNow reporter

Political forces running for the Yerevan municipal assembly make special
references in their platforms to widespread concerns of the capital’s
residents over construction and urban development projects, some of which
have been a matter of great controversy in recent years.

Campaigns of nearly all candidates for the city’s top post pledge
consideration of peculiarities of planning typical of large cities in
construction and redevelopment projects that they say will preserve the
spirit of the Yerevan once designed by famous architect Alexander Tamanyan.

But few residents appear to believe them in a period when there seems to be
no lack of `tall’ promises.

`They have deformed the city center in a way that nothing is left from the
Yerevan we used to know. The developers’ interests are in the first place,
and they are not interested in what the city will look like at all. I do not
believe that the new mayor will be able to change anything anymore,’ says
Armine Karapetyan, a resident of Yerevan’s western Malatia-Sebastia
district.

During one campaign rallies, Gagik Beglaryan, the incumbent mayor and top
candidate on the ruling Republican Party’s ticket, announced that on May
31
residents of Yerevan will vote in a way that will ensure they live in the
next four years in a city they have dreamed about.

`We have the master plan of Yerevan. There are the most competent
specialists on the City Planning Council who largely determine the prospects
of the capital city’s development. In advance, any project that has a public
interest will be shown to the public for ten days, and it will be presented
for large-scale public discussions,’ said Beglaryan. `In this respect,
our
doors will be open to all specialists and non-governmental organizations
that care about the city.’

Sedrak Baghdasaryan, who heads the `Victims of State Needs’ NGO, an
organization embracing citizens who were evicted from their homes under
court rulings to vacate some city center locations for developers, is
skeptical of the promises made by pro-government politicians. He says he
mostly pins his hopes on the opposition.

`The godfather of construction in Yerevan’s center is the Republican Party,
and they still try to promise something. I do not believe the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Dashnaktsutyun, the Prosperous Armenia Party,
and the Orinats Yerkir Party. As part of the ruling coalition they did not
manage to do anything, and now they try to promise that a number of things
would be changed,’ says Baghdasaryan. `I consider what the opposition
Armenian National Congress (ANC) suggests to be a more modern approach. I
believe that they will manage to reinstate us in our rights.’

It is mentioned in the election program of the ANC that all citizens who
found themselves in the redevelopment zones in 2000-2008 will get a fair
compensation. The order and principles of the compensation will be agreed
with either the victims or with the organizations representing their
interests.

`The construction of Yerevan will be carried out not according to the
principle of elite arbitrariness and construction norms will not be
superceded by the caprice of a customer. The further construction of the
city’s `point’ and yard areas, as well as the public green zones and
slopes
will be excluded. A complex program of relieving the burden of the center of
Yerevan will be implemented,’ says ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who
currently tops the ANC list of candidates in the city elections.

Heghine Bisharyan, the top candidate on the Orinats Yerkir slate, says that
in order to make her election program different from those of her male
opponents, she suggests creating gardens in the roofs of multi-apartment
buildings, as well as planting trees and creating a garden for each
multi-apartment building.

It is mentioned in the election program of Orinats Yerkir that the essential
part of the elite construction in Yerevan was realized according to the
following principle – `land is money,’ which resulted in destruction
of
green territories and wholesale violations of citizens’ rights. Orinats
Yerkir suggests strengthening legality in the sphere of city building and
preventing various manifestations of illegal construction. As a result of
non-systemized building the capital city appeared on the edge of an
environmental disaster; the architectural image and harmony of Yerevan are
violated, the program mentions.

Artsvik Minasyan, the top candidate on the ARF Dashnaktsutyun ticket states
that as a result of the non-coordinated city construction carried out during
the past 18 years, as well as the uncontrolled and at times chaotic building
process Yerevan lost 40 percent of public green areas (928 hectares). As a
result of cutting trees and devastating the green areas and parks in Yerevan
currently the index of 4.5 sq. m./person is registered instead of the
previous 7.5 sq. m./person of green territory. Whereas according to the city
planning norms, that index was supposed to be 2,600 hectares (21 sq.
m./person).

`Unfortunately, Yerevan governance is now perceived at the level of
solutions to urban problems. The most essential issues for the city
authorities are road construction and renovation, but they do not adopt a
strategic approach for Yerevan’s sustainable development,’ the ARF election
program states.

Residents of Yerevan suburbs warn that their communities are in a more
difficult plight than the city center.

`It is already a few days that the center of the city is being asphalted,
but I would suggest they enter the yards and inner secondary roads and see
what the situation is like there. During the electioneering they try to
close people’s eyes. But we are not stupid, and we understand very well why
they started those works especially now,’ says Anahit Harutyunyan, a
resident of the city’s southeastern Erebuni district.

The election program of the Republican Party clearly states what
construction works and improvements are envisaged for Yerevan.

Tigran Karapetyan, the top candidate on the People’s Party ticket, says that
they would be especially strict towards city developers, they would increase
the green areas, the number of garages would also be decreased, and instead
underground parking facilities would be constructed.

But Baghdasaryan, an activist who himself lost the comfort of his home to
one of the most controversial city center redevelopment plans in Yerevan
since independence, says all these promises by politicians only make him
laugh.

`It is amazing. During this electioneering they try to persuade people what
they are planning to do if they are elected. It’s like I am hired to work in
an office and I promise to be there on time, like at nine o’clock. The most
important thing is what else they offer,’ says Baghdasaryan.

*********************************** **************************************

4. Elections or Balance of Power: What will change in Armenia’s political
arena after May 31

Aris Ghazinyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

Many Armenian political analysts believe that the forthcoming Yerevan
municipal elections will not have a fundamental influence on the layout of
political and economic powers in the country, at least in the initial stage,
as it is not the election that will create a new palette of domestic
politics, but the already shaped domestic policy palette itself will
`create’ the election results.

There is little doubt that the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) will
concentrate all the levers of Yerevan government in its hands. That concerns
both the mayor’s chair and those of heads of Yerevan communities.

At the same time, the ruling coalition members – Prosperous Armenia and
Orinats Yerkir – can and will `demand’ posts, for example, at a level of
deputy mayor or of leaders of two-three communities.

The biggest changes in the country’s post-election domestic policy will be
connected to the orientation of the wealthiest political party – Prosperous
Armenia. That opinion is shared by the majority of political analysts.

`Armenia’s ruling coalition is facing a serious crisis, and the further
deepening of that crisis can lead to fundamental divergence of standpoints
and actions of the powers representing the coalition,’ says Manvel Sargsyan,
an expert at the Armenian Center for National and International Studies.

He particularly emphasizes the role of Prosperous Armenia. Considering the
existing disagreement on certain issues between the party leader Gagik
Tsarukyan and the government, that political force might turn into
opposition. As Sargsyan says, in order to be able to make any forecast on
the coalition’s future we have to wait and see who will become the
dominating force in it, but it is very complicated, since `all the
components of the coalition have started to develop independently.’

`It is for the first time that Armenia is facing a situation when power is
not monopolized and when some of its components may opt for cooperation with
a really strong opposition,’ the expert says.

The opposition itself thinks that if the City Council elections are
transparent, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by first president
Levon Ter-Petrosyan will have 40 percent of the votes, and Prosperous
Armenia will hold the second position by the number of votes. This statement
was made by ANC member Hovhannes Hovhannisyan, who also added that the
authorities are trying to make the election campaign look bleak and gloomy
in order to discourage potential voters and minimize their participation in
the election. The clashes between the supporters of the RPA and Prosperous
Armenia are a proof of that.

There is an impression today that if the municipal elections do influence
the further power layout in Yerevan and countrywide, it will be in terms of
Prosperous Armenia’s post-election standpoint. If it defects to the ANC’s
side, a brand new political situation may take shape in the country.

Such prospects cannot be excluded since re-division of the shadow sector
will follow immediately after the election, and that can provoke a conflict
between `the main shadow business owners’: RPA and Prosperous Armenia.

Public relations specialist Karen Kocharyan says that the RPA has become
noticeably popular `due to the right choice of a candidate for the mayor’s
post and the competently built election campaign. Psychologically, people
start liking the previously unapproachable official who now says hello,
shakes their hands, embraces them and behaves like an equal.’

According to him, both the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
Dashnaktsutyun and the ANC have a certain electorate which usually remains
the same. Kocharyan says Dashnaktsutyun’s withdrawal from the ruling
coalition may have weakened its position, but hardly resulted in any
shrinkage of its supporters. `Orinats Yerkir has a very weak position, as, I
suppose, it lost the majority, if not a 100 percent of its supporters after
the presidential elections in 2008,’ the specialist adds.

Meanwhile, Armen Rustamyam, an ARF Executive Council representative, says
that `none of the parties will manage to poll 40 percent of the votes during
the Yerevan City Council elections.’ According to him, buying votes, using
government levers or any other methods used during the campaign will not
help the participants to reach the 40 percent benchmark – unless glaring
violations and forging of election results occur, which, the parties will
not venture to do.

Hence, Yerevan municipal elections can create prerequisites for certain
changes in the long term. However, such changes, first of all, will be
conditioned by more important and essential issues, such as improving
relations with Turkey and settling the Karabakh issue.

The fact that the authorities, and first of all the RPA, are challenged with
the need for solving these issues as soon as possible, can provoke a serious
conflict both within the party and among the authorities on the whole.
Apparently if by then Prosperous Armenia has established tighter and more
public bonds with the ANC, a threat may emerge of power turnover by the `new
opposition’. However, if the RPA and Prosperous Armenia come to a complete
mutual understanding on all the issues in the process of `shadow division of
Yerevan’, no serious changes should be expected in the power layout.

***************************************** ********************************

5. Election cleanup: Asphalting, tree pruning, garbage removal help spruce
up Yerevan ahead of municipal vote

By Siranuysh Gevorgyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

This year residents of Yerevan notice with surprise that during the
pre-election period the city becomes cleaner and `greener’ day by day.
Many
believe the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is thus trying to raise
its rating and the rating of its top candidate on the ticket, who is the
incumbent mayor, ahead of the May 31 municipal assembly elections. Some
opposition media speculate that even though the current greenery planting
and city infrastructure improvement works are being carried out at the
expense of budget resources, they still have pre-election purposes.

Since April 1, Yerevan’s municipality has being involved in large-scale
tree-planting and yard cleaning operations in different communities of the
city. Streets are being asphalted, new electricity posts are being installed
and old ones are being renovated, street lights are being installed, and
water irrigation systems are being restored or constructed in yards.

According to the data provided by the Yerevan Municipality, in all the
communities of Yerevan a total of 4,100 trees have been pruned and
rejuvenated. Suren Maksapetyan, deputy head of the Environment Protection
Department of the Municipality, says that 15,000 new trees have been planted
during the spring tree-planting campaign and flower stands with flower
seedlings were hung on nine bridges with the aid of special hooks. And the
liming of trees along the streets in the city center had been completed by
May 20.

Frunz Basentsyan, head of the Construction and Improvement Department of the
Municipality, says all yards and secondary roads leading to them have been
asphalted in all city communities since April. In total, an area of around
500,000 square meters has already been asphalted, he adds.

`Upon Mayor Gagik Beglaryan’s instruction, asphalting is done according to
the necessity, that is to say, in those sections where there is a need for
asphalting,’ Basentsyan says.

Yerevan’s neighborhoods carry out extensive garbage removal and sanitary
cleaning works in the streets and yards. Besides, 4,354 new electricity
posts have been installed in the yards and in the secondary streets leading
to the yards; 416 old posts have been restored and 3,839 street lamps have
been installed.

According to Basentsyan, it is yet impossible to calculate the exact amount
of money spent on city improvement measures because `the works are still
in
progress and the final figures will be known in 20 days.’

PR specialist Karen Kocharyan recently spoke about an increased rating of
the RPA in the pre-election period and connected it with the party’s
`non-standard campaign’, i.e. its ability to organize its activities
correctly with an effective combination of administrative, human and
financial resources.

Politician Ruben Mehrabyan thinks that city improvement activities had been
designed to have an influence on the electorate. But he adds that nowadays
such actions no longer have any significant impact on voter moods.

`The improvement works are the direct responsibility of the municipality,
and these activities are funded from the municipality budget, and there is
no need to serve it as a favor for Yerevan residents,’ Mehrabyan says.

Publicist Hrant Ter-Abrahamyan, who is known for his in-depth political
analyses, also believes that it will have little influence on voters.

`Street lamps are installed in my mother’s yard, too, and maybe the last
time that yard had lighting was during the Brezhnev era. But I believe that
it will have little influence on people’s opinions,’ he says.

Ter-Abrahamyan thinks the RPA electorate will give their votes to the ruling
party not for garbage removal or improvement works, but in exchange for an
election bribe.

Spokesman for the opposition Armenian National Congress Arman Musinyan says
the works carried out by the municipality may have some influence on
citizens’ political orientation. But he also believes there will be very
few
such citizens.

`A majority of residents in Yerevan have the level of consciousness to
understand that the large-scale city improvement works are simply a bait:
voters are well aware of this nature of the authorities,’ Musinyan says.

RPA spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov, meanwhile, thinks that connecting the
improvements of the city with the party’s election campaign is totally
baseless.

`Asphalting and planting greenery are done every year in this period. The
City Hall couldn’t postpone them until the 1st of June. The city would be
paralyzed, citizens would complain. Simply in this case the opposition,
feeling they have no chance of winning, becomes nervous. We are used to it,
in all countries the opposition criticizes the government,’ Sharmazanov told
ArmeniaNow.

******************************** *****************************************

6. Media and mayoral race: Parties say TV mostly neutral, newspapers
divided in Yerevan election coverage**

By Armine Grigoryan

ArmeniaNow reporter

The political forces running for the Yerevan City Council in the May 31
elections are mainly dissatisfied with the quality and way of coverage of
their campaigns in print media. While they consider that television stations
are mostly neutral in their reports involving candidates and their
campaigns, they see a division in print and online media into two parts –
pro-governing and pro-opposition that are openly engaged in smear campaigns
against the opposite camp.

Seven TV companies were monitored to see how balanced they are in their
coverage of the election campaign. Among them one is public (Armenian Public
Television H1) and six are private (H2, ALM, ArmNews, Yerkir Media, Kentron
and Shant).

According to the data of the first and second stages of TV monitoring
published by the Yerevan Press Club, most references to the six political
parties and one bloc contesting the City Council elections were neutral.

No monitoring of campaign coverage in print and online media has been
conducted for these elections. But political parties participating in the
race already have their own observations.

Heghine Bisharyan, who heads the Orinats Yerkir ticket, believes that
newspapers are mainly engaged in `foisting their own opinions on readers.’

`I have not met a professional analysis yet. The press does not manage to
present properly how important these elections are,’ Bisharyan says.

Naira Zohrabyan, who runs the Prosperous Armenia Party campaign, says
readers like `easily digestible food’ and only specialists read analytical
articles. She thinks that the press fails to educate readers on the
significance of these elections.

`Newspapers are divided into two main groups – pro-opposition and
pro-governing. The pro-government press has become a crowbar threatening to
smite the opposition’s head, and vice versa – the opposition press is a
crowbar for hitting the government. Because of lack of professionalism the
press has been trammeled into politics and thus moved away from its main
mission,’ says Zohrabyan, who worked on a daily newspaper before becoming a
member of parliament with Prosperous Armenia in 2007.

Tigran Karapetyan, the top candidate on the People’s Party ticket, has not
met serious analytical articles, either. He says neither pro-opposition nor
pro-government newspapers write about him and his party.

`I think that the opposition and pro-government press does not write about
us because both of them are afraid of me,’ says Karapetyan. `While
supporting one, the press ignores another. So I have to make speeches on my
TV Company – ALM,’ he adds.

The opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) that runs for the Yerevan
City Council as a bloc, on the contrary, is pleased with the work of the
printed press. ANC spokesman Arman Musinyan thinks that both newspapers and
online publications have diversity and clash of different ideas, which he
says TV lacks.

`TV companies are mainly trying to avoid sharp angles and that’s why public
activeness in the elections does not rise,’ Musinyan says.

Artashes Shahbazyan, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
Dashnaktsutyun campaign manager, thinks that the press is too much
politicized, and instead of covering one event or another, it executes a
political order.

Musinyan, meanwhile, does not share this viewpoint; he believes that there
is no political order, simply the authorities with the help of
pro-government press present that everything is fine; and the opposition
press shows what, in fact, exists.

Movses Shahverdyan, who leads the Labor Socialist Party of Armenia in the
elections, thinks that the press is very motley. He is not satisfied with
the professional level of the press and the culture of information.

`The reason is probably that the press does not have independent funding, so
it is mainly one-sided, and it does not manage to stand above the domestic
level and properly present the importance of these elections,’ Shahverdyan
contends.

He is not satisfied with the attitude of the press towards his party in the
pre-election period, because, as he believes, they are not included in the
scenarios of either the opposition and pro-establishment parties.

`Maybe this is the reason why there is a negative attitude towards us in
the
press. May be they believe that we are an undesirable participant and are
trying to sideline us,’ he says.

******************************************* *****************************7. Elections and geopolitics: How regional tangles can influence Yerevan
polls

Analysis by Aris Ghazinyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

Some political analysts in Armenia tend to think that the municipal
elections due in Yerevan this Sunday (May 31) may undermine the country’s
fragile stability. However, that is not quite true.

Undoubtedly, certain complications of the situation are always possible, and
especially after the elections, however one cannot overlook the fact that
the most fatal changes in countries like Armenia are determined by foreign
interest and foreign influence.

The main foreign interest is the perspective of building relations with
Turkey, and the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem as soon as
possible. That’s where the actual threat of destabilization for Armenia’s
current authorities comes from.

During the past two months the co-chairs of the Minsk Group of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have made more
statements on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue than they had
during the whole year. In their statements the mediators did not exclude the
prospect of settling the issue within the coming few months.

Armenia’s leadership have faced the need to settle the Karabakh issue as
soon as possible. And that, in a sense, is a deadlock.

The American co-chair of the Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, has repeatedly
stated that five `Azerbaijani districts’ have to `come out’ of Armenian
control (Getabek, Fizuli, Aghdam, Zangelan, Kutabli). He was pointing out to
the need to think up some interesting status for Nagorno-Karabakh (within
the limits of the former Autonomous Region of Nagorno-Karabakh). However,
the issue is that the moment Armenia’s leadership agree to such a unilateral
concession, they’ll sign their resignation.

No one in the country will agree to give away to Azerbaijan Karabakh’s
historic regions won back at the cost of blood. Hence, the first step on
the way of the putative solution of the issue would lead to destabilization
of the situation in Armenia. Moreover, former president Robert Kocharyan
might return to major-league politics and form a coalition with
Dashnaktsutyun.

The possible readiness of the Armenian authorities to make unilateral
concessions may become the subject of speculations in domestic politics,
this time on the part of the opposition Armenian National Congress.

The current administration is in a deadlock also on `the western border’.
With Turkey.

On the one hand, it has to maintain communication with the Turkish side and
declare about its eagerness to establish diplomatic relations without any
preconditions. At the same time, the Armenian side doesn’t mind the opening
of the border. As for Ankara, at the initial stage it won’t raise the
Karabakh issue, as the most important thing for it now is the ratification
of the Armenian-Turkish border.

The moment the current administration takes that step (nothing different is
expected to happen in the case with Turkey), there will be a shift of power
in the country. In modern Armenia there cannot be a government which could
afford to sign a paper that includes a point on inviolability of the border
(with Turkey) and retain the reins of power.

The Armenian Diaspora scattered all over the world realizes that the
Armenian-Turkish border (or rather, the Soviet-Turkish border) is temporary,
regardless of today’s realities or a certain feebleness of the Armenian
state and the political elite representing that state.

Any representative of the country who would agree to sign an agreement on
inviolability of the frontier is doomed. They will simply be forced to step
down by a protest movement. Consequently, the authorities are in a deadlock
and have no choice but keep repeating something quite obvious: `the Karabakh
issue is not a precondition in the negotiations with Turkey’.

Armenia’s neighbors are as concerned about the prospect of opening the
border as Armenia. The transport ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia
met on May 24 to discuss the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project.

An intergovernmental agreement on creating a railway corridor
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars was drawn in February 2007 by Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey. The project includes the construction of a
98-kilometer Kars-Akhalkhalaki railway section, of which a 68-kilometer
stretch will run through Turkey, and 30 km through Georgia.

The project also envisages the reconstruction of the Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi
section, for which Azerbaijan has given a long-term preferential loan of
$200 million. Construction works as part of that project will require an
estimated $422 million ($202 million for the Georgian section, and $220
million for the Turkish one.) The project budget including the provision of
adjacent infrastructure is more than $600 million. The railway is expected
to become operational by mid-2011.

Why, however, did all of a sudden the transport ministers of the three
states urgently meet in Turkey?

The thing is that in the highlight of a possible opening of the
Armenian-Turkish border and the quite real prospect of the re-operation of
the Gyumri-Kars railway road, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project becomes almost
completely pointless.

And it is not only about all the assets invested in that project. Apart from
other things the project had been designed to isolate Armenia. Washington
raises objections to this project by not financing the construction and
views the South Caucasus as one indivisible whole.

Armenia’s leadership knows perfectly well that possible complications in
domestic affairs connected with the municipal elections can be used against
them as a mechanism of external pressure. It is in this and only this regard
that the `international community’ is interested in the municipal elections.

Today the authorities understand that `flirting’ with Turkey over the border
issue has turned into a real trap for them. The same can be said about the
promises of readiness to settle the Karabakh issue. The only thing President
Serzh Sargsyan can do now is to `freeze’ the launched process of active
relations in two parallel areas and govern the country `in Robert
Kocharyan’s mode’.

However, Sargsyan’s predecessor Kocharyan was a more independent president
and rejected all proposals to build relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan
right from the outset. It is, of course, beyond Sargsyan’s strength. Or is
it?

The answer to that question will become clear in the months to come*85

***************************************** ********************************
8. Awaited amnesty: President Sargsyan gives hope, but fails to impress
opposition

By Karine Ionesyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

Last week, Speaker of the Parliament Hovik Abrahmayan said that President
Serzh Sargsyan was prepared to grant amnesty to 70 or so opposition
supporters who are still kept in jail on charges stemming from their alleged
roles in last year’s post-election clashes. The Speaker said the release
might be made on May 28.

On May 28, however, Sargsyan deferred his power to Armenian political
parties, saying that he would entertain their motions on whether or not the
prisoners should be released.

The announcement, coming on `First Republic Day’ drew mix reactions from
various parties and skepticism from opposition.

The opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by ex-president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan does not share the general optimism of some, and its spokesman
Arman Musinyan called such talks empty.

`He (Sargsyan) did not say anything concrete in his speech,’ said the ANC
spokesman.

On May 28, while visiting the Sardarapat memorial (40 kilometers west of
capital Yerevan <;), the president said,
talking to the media, that he did not rule out the possibility of exercising
his constitutional right to declare an amnesty.

`I call on all political parties and the Public Council to submit their
suggestions on the necessity and conditions concerning the amnesty to the
president’s office,’ Sargsyan said.

A possible decision by the president to declare an amnesty on jailed
oppositionists has been the talk of recent days. Larisa Alaverdyan,
secretary of the opposition Heritage party’s parliamentary faction, believes
it was not a coincidence that the president expressed the idea of amnesty
and it is likely the jailed oppositionists will be released.

`Even though before they said that only the President could grant amnesty,
now they once again call on the political parties. Yet we are ready to
repeat our previous position demanding amnesty. We hope that other political
forces follow suit,’ said Alaverdyan.

She believes that the President decided to speak about it just now so as to
calm pre-election fervors before Sunday’s Yerevan City Council Election,
and
because the authorities understood that it is necessary to settle everything
in a calm way.

Artashes Shahbazyan, a National Assembly deputy from the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Dashnaktsutyun, stated that the president’s
announcement is determined by the upcoming elections to Yerevan’s municipal
assembly. He said Dashnaktsutyun still had to decide on its position
regarding the president’s appeal to political parties in the near future.

`We raised that issue before. And maybe we were among the first who
suggested the idea of amnesty. We believe that it was not without reason
that the parliament speaker spoke about it, and it was not without reason
either that the president reaffirmed that statement,’ said Shahbazyan.

************************************* ***********************************9. Tatev in Focus of Attention: Ninth century monastery latest tourism site
highlighted by AMAP

By Julia Hakobyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

The twisted road carved in the lofty mountains to the reclusive Tatev
monastery was full of people on May 27, who gathered for the inauguration of
information panels installed inside and outside of the monastery complex.

Seven information panels containing information about the complex in
English, Armenian, Russian, Italian, and French now welcome visitors to one
of Armenia’s most revered religious and cultural destinations.

Tatev became the eighth site targeted by the Armenian Monuments Awareness
Project (AMAP) in its second year of aiming to make visitors’ experience
to
Armenian cultural and religious monument more educational and meaningful.
The carefully researched information on the panels was prepared by AMAP
researchers and has been approved by the Ministry of Culture and by the
Armenian Apostolic Church.

AMAP grew out of ideas by chief of party Rick Ney and ArmeniaNow editor John
Hughes, who both traveled across Armenia and saw the need for visitors to
Armenia to have more relevant information about the locations they visit.

`Few places are as awe-inspiring as Tatev,’ Ney says. `Far from the more
accessible landmarks such as Geghard and Echmiadzin, Tatev is a perfect
example of wedding a great monument with incredible natural surroundings.
It
is an honor that our NGO was chosen to help promote the beauty and history
of Tatev.’

Tatev Monastery, one of the most spectacular sights in Armenia is a
candidate for UNESCO World Heritage Status, and like many monuments in
Armenia suffered from a lack of publicly-available information, leaving
visitors to either guess at its significance or rely on tour-guide accounts.

Further, as a Christian landmark, its religious significance was deleted
from historic or cultural information during 70 years of communism. Only now
is the story of its spiritual heritage publicly represented on the site in
the panels prepared by AMAP through its sponsors: United States Agency for
International Aid, Italian Consul and Viva Cell-MTS.

Considering that the road to Tatev goes through rocky slopes and often
barely passable, changing from steep decent and ascents to sharp bends,
information ports that will guide the visitors and provide detailed
information about the spot was especially important for the mountainous
monastery.

Tatev, a mountainous pearl of Syunik province about 5 hours south of Yerevan
was founded in the ninth century in place of a tabernacle well-known in
ancient times. Even though Tatev is situated on a mountain top, its location
is strategically advantageous, as it was initially built as a defense
complex.

The inauguration of the information kiosks was warmly welcomed by villagers
of Tatev, who organized a stand up meal party for the guests, with
traditional Armenian bread lavash, cheese, honey and cookies. Among the
guest were Antonio Mataldo, honory counsul of Italy, United Nations
representative Consuela Vidal, Armenian Assembly of America Country Director
Arpi Vartanian, deputy governor of Syunik Ara Dolunts and others.
Competitive Armenia Program representative Alan Saffery, whose agency
supports AMAP as a USAID contractor, emphasized the value of the AMAP
project. Saffery told the crowd of about 100 villagers that he had
previously visited Tatev with his mother-in-law, who was disappointed that
there was no information available. Through CAPS’ support foreign and local
tourists now will have a more educational experience in Tatev and other
designated sites that include Karahundj, Amberd, Geghard – among locations
to be marked this year.

During Wednesday’s ceremonies, Montaldo (who was AMAP’s first sponsor) was
named an `Honorary Citizen of Goris’ for the work he has done in the region,
including building a hospital in Goris during the Karabakh war of the early
1990s.

During his comments, Goris mayor Nelson Voskanyan told about government
plans to make Tatev a more vital tourism destination, including plans for a
5 km funicular way that would take visitors up to the monastery.

Tatev is AMAP’s third installation this year, following successful
presentations at Amash and Yeghegis within the past month. In its pilot
project last year AMAP made installations in Giumri, Zvartnots, Khor Virap,
Noravank and Garni, putting up a total of 54 panels and 33 directional road
signs. At the end of this project cycle, AMAP will have erected more than
120 information panels and 100 directional road signs for 19 Armenian
monuments.

By end of this year AMAP expects to have completed projects that include
marking the historic `Silk Highway’ through Armenia from Georgia to Iran.

******************************************* ******************************
10. Weathering the Storm: economic crisis in focus

By Richard Giragosian

Despite the significance of Armenia’s approaching municipal election set
for
31 May, there was a flurry of activity in Yerevan this week devoted to the
country’s economic not political crisis.

The week opened with an important first-ever economic forum featuring a
number of current and former Armenian economic officials, as well as several
leading international economists, working together to assess the
implications and formulate Armenia’s possible policy responses to the global
economic crisis (see `Armenia brings together current and former economic
policymakers’).

Organized by the independent Washington-based group, Policy Forum Armenia,
the event attracted a diverse audience who were provided with several
objective presentations on the current state of the Armenian economy. Most
notably, many of the experts warned that the Armenian government seemed far
too ill-prepared to manage the effects of the economic crisis, with most of
the most recent responses offering far too little, too late to adequately
deal with the mounting economic challenges.

According to Policy Forum Armenia’s co-founder, prominent economist David
Grigorian, the forum sought to leverage `the expertise not only that has
been accumulated in Armenia since independence in terms of economic policy
making, but also distinguished guests from outside that have very relevant
experience in terms of crisis management.’

The forum’s participants also sought to formulate a set of recommendations
for the Armenian government, which they saw as urgently overdue in light of
the crisis that many predicted would only worsen through the coming year.
Much
of the focus of the recommendations centered on the need for `systemic
responses’ and `structural and institutional reforms’ to best address the
declining Armenian economy.

Reporting on the state of the economy, Vache Gabrielian, the Vice Chairman
of the Armenian Central Bank, only confirmed the severity of the crisis,
reporting that the Armenian economy was now expected to decrease by between
7-8 percent, based on the bank’s latest statistical analysis. Former Prime
Minister Hrant Bagratian went further, arguing that according to more
objective statistical findings, the Armenian economy has already sustained
a
steep contraction of 9.7 percent for the first four months of the year
alone.

One of the proposed policy responses, crafted by Russian economist Abel
Aghanbegyan, called on the government to `develop small and medium
business,’ intended to serve as an engine for growth and job creation. But
former premier Bagratian pointed to the larger challenge of corruption and
the structural distortion of the economy, contending that some 51 percent of
the country’s total production is actually controlled by a small elite who
continue to refuse to pay their fair share of taxes and that exerts a
stranglehold over Armenian imports.

In response to these deeper challenges, Bagratian recommended a new
`anti-crisis program’ that would be based on a further depreciation of
the
currency and would address the structural deficiencies of the economic
system. But despite the high-level nature of the setting, it is far from
certain whether the current Armenian government was receptive to such
critical assessments and constructive proposals. It is also not clear if it
was even listening

Transforming Economic Potential into Business Reality

Only two days after the economic forum, VivaCell-MTS General Manager Ralph
Yirikian, one of Armenia’s leading corporate executives, delivered a speech
at the Gyumri Information Technology Center (GITC). Yirikian’s lecture,
entitled, `VivaCell-MTS: A Business with a Mission,’ offered unique insight
into the `operational processes and managerial culture’ of Armenia’s
leading
mobile operator company, and presented an overview of the state of mobile
communications technology in Armenia.

What was most significant was the fact that Yirikian, as a leading advocate
of `corporate social responsibility,’ whereby business should `give back’ to
the community, focused on one of the relatively few examples where Armenia
actually demonstrates a capacity to transform economic potential into
business reality. And VivaCell’s executive stands virtually alone in
following transparent corporate practices and pursuing a healthy competitive
engagement of the market, rather than seeking to corner the market.

But he also stressed that `business should above all be the supporting tool
of education,’ noting that for VivaCell, `any evolution is strictly
connected to the level of education’ and education offers `one of the means
to create job opportunities and utilize local human potential to keep our
young generation in our country and stop "brain drain" from Armenia.’

Is Anyone Listening?

Although the overwhelming need is to better manage the mounting economic
crisis, judging by the events of this week, it is promising that that there
is a new, more serious focus on Armenia’s economic crisis. But such
presentations and lectures are not enough. What is really needed is for
Armenian policy makers and government officials to listen. Thus, the
imperative, as VivaCell’s Yirikian understands, is to not only transform
potential into reality, but to also translate crisis into response; before
it is too late.

*85*85*85*85*85*85*85*85*85*85*85*85.

Rich ard Giragosian is the director of the Yerevan-based Armenian Center for
National and International Studies (ACNIS). `Weathering the Storm" is a
weekly column exclusively for ArmeniaNow.

************************************* ************************************
11. Policy Forum: Economists predict further decline of economy

By Sara Khojoyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

Armenia, which has experienced a steady month-on-month economic decline
since the beginning of this year, can overcome the heavy consequences of the
continuing global economic crisis only if it manages to create conditions
for a more competitive economy and tackle monopolistic practices and
protectionism.

This was the dominating opinion at this week’s panel discussion in Yerevan
attended by a number of the country’s former and current economic
policymakers as well as several leading international experts.

On May 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a 5 percent
economic decline in Armenia, and on May 22 the Central Bank of Armenia made
a less optimistic prediction of a 5.8 percent decline.

On May 25, during the `Weathering the Global Storm’ forum, Deputy Chairman
of the Central Bank Vache Gabrielyan said the Armenian economy might
contract by 7-8 percent in 2009.

Gabrielyan made predictions based on the data provided by the National
Statistical Service, according to which in January-April 2009 (four months)
Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 9.7 percent, compared to
the GDP reduction of 6.1 percent reported for the first quarter of this
year.

`We believe there are no grounds to expect any deeper economic decline. The
economy is likely to contract by between 7-8 percent year on year,’ said
Gabrielyan addressing the forum participants.

David Grigorian, an economist at the IMF in Washington and co-founder of
Policy Forum Armenia (a Washington-based independent group that organized
the Yerevan forum) told ArmeniaNow that the purpose of the event was to
combine together Armenian and outside experience: `It is difficult to say
whether or not the government is tuned to this and will be listening to
this. But we certainly hope so.’

Meanwhile, Gabrielyan was the only senior representative attending on the
government side.

Former Central Bank chairman Bagrat Asatryan sounded less optimistic in his
predictions. He said his projections reflected the trends revealed by the
official statistics available for January-March 2009.

`The reduction of cash remittances as well as the losses of jobs that have
started in Russia this spring and are likely to continue for the next few
years will lead to an 11 percent economic decline [in Armenia] in 2009,’
said Asatryan.

Unlike the government that hopes the economy will start picking up its pace
in 2010, Asatryan predicts another year of decline with the economy
contracting by 9 percent.

`Up to now I have not seen any serious event or program implemented by
Armenian authorities which would alleviate the further consequences of the
crisis. This is the reason why I believe that the negative tendencies will
continue in 2010 as well,’ said Asatryan, reminding that the Government is
currently acting according to the program that envisages a 9.2 percent
economic growth.

Presenting the actions of the Government Gabrielyan clarified that the
chosen primary trends are neither the new technologies nor the branches
having huge potential for development, but rather the development of
substructures, as well as the financing of small and medium-sized
enterprises, because these are the sectors that provide the highest
employment.

Another participant of the high-level economic forum, former Armenian
Minister of Economy Armen Yeghiazaryan does not believe in the productivity
of this provision of the Government’s program.

`The mechanism of giving credits to small and medium-sized business will
not
be very productive, when the banking system finances only 17 percent of the
GDP. It means that the economy and the financial system are in parallel
worlds,’ said Yeghiazaryan.

And Gabrielyan agreed with him. `I do not say that everything is in bright
colors, and that money will be easily directed to the economy,’ said
Gabrielyan presenting the scheme of credit funds distribution.

Gabrielyan thinks that other means of alleviating the crisis that the
Central Bank and the Government have at their disposal are the promotion of
the economy at the expense of increasing the budget deficit, as well as the
implementation of some interest rates policy.

`The 9.7 percent reduction in GDP reported for four months of this year made
us take more drastic steps as we reduced by one percent the refinancing
rate,’ the Central Bank’s deputy chairman told reporters.

However, Asatryan considers these means to be at least unsatisfactory: `The
interest rates have never been a tool in our country, nor will be in the
next 5-10 years.’

The forum drew participation by Armenia’s former prime ministers, including
Vazgen Manukyan, who evaluated the actions of the current Government as not
satisfactory.

`One in a hundred always gains in times of crisis while the rest suffer.
Can
we be that one? I’d like that to be so. But to tell the truth, I do not see
any project that would help Armenia gain rather than suffer from the
crisis,’ said Manukyan, who served as prime minister in the early 1990s.

****************************************** *******************************
12. Battle of Shushi: Pan-Armenian charity plans landmark fundraising for
key Karabakh town

By Naira Hayrumyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

The funds to be raised through this year’s annual telethon of the
All-Armenian Fund `Hayastan’ (Armenia) in November will be spent on the
reconstruction of Shushi, a strategically important stronghold town in
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Seventeen years after the liberation of the town, Armenians all over the
world will be urged to join hands to revive Shushi, whose battle marked the
turning point in the national-liberation struggle of Armenians in the early
1990s.

Shushi, whose dominant location had been used by the Azeri military to shell
capital Stepanakert and nearby areas with mainly civilian population, was
stormed by Armenian forces and liberated on May 8-9, 1992. Nearly 15 years
have passed since the end of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, but Shushi
(situated 16 kilometers to the south of Stepanakert), is still in a state of
misery. Houses there are destroyed, streets are full of puddles, while in
summer and winter the town experiences shortage of water. But the town meets
its visitors with the renovated Savior Church Ghazanchetsots and a monument
to Vazgen Sargsyan, a Karabakh war hero.

For many years authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have said that reconstruction
of the town is impossible through state budget funds.

The townsfolk say the telethon may become unprecedented in terms of the
money it will raise, since Shushi means a lot to Armenians. It is only
necessary to assure Armenians all over the world that the money they are
going to donate will be spent not on `buying new SUVs,’ but rather on
reconstruction works.

In the meantime, the Government of Nagorno-Karabakh made a decision to
dismiss Head of Shushi District Administration Vardan Gabrielyan and appoint
Georgy Hayriyan as his successor. Nagorno-Karabakh Prime Minister Ara
Harutyunyan said this year many things will depend on the head of the
district administration.

A number of projects were implemented in Shushi in 2008: the water-pipe
system and water line connecting Shushi with the Tadevos spring that
supplies the town with water were partly restored. Installation of gas
supply systems is near completion. About one and a half billion drams ($5
million) from the state budget was spent on the projects.

The Shushi Revival Fund has supported the construction of a tourism center
in the town as well as the current reconstruction of buildings of a
printing-house and the historical `Green’ pharmacy. Works on the
reconstruction of an urban water sewage network are in progress. Oriental
bathhouses and the old market are also under reconstruction. The Tufenkian
Foundation sponsored the renovation of the museum of local lore of Shushi.

As stimulus for development, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh relocated
a
number of state institutions to Shushi, such as the Ministry of Culture,
courts, the State Cadastre Committee, and some others. Currently the
building hosting the Ministry of Culture is under reconstruction. It is not
yet decided, however, how the employees of those institutions will get to
work in wintertime when the serpentine road from Stepanakert to Shushi
becomes dangerous for driving.

Shushi now has a population of 3,600 people, even though at the end of the
19th century its population was about 45,000.

It is yet unknown what exact buildings will be reconstructed with the funds
raised at Telethon-2009. Concrete projects are likely to be developed before
November. But it is obvious that Armenians living abroad will not donate
money getting only a `word of honor’ instead, especially that many Armenians
willing to contribute already have a sad experience. Many say in private
conversations that when they visited Shushi they found out that even the
ruins there had been privatized and that it takes an incredible amount of
money to buy out the site for construction from the owner of those ruins.

The names of these owners are known, but they are mentioned only off the
record. When ArmeniaNow asked one American-Armenian dissatisfied with the
situation to speak about it openly, he said he wouldn’t do that not to
disappoint those who treat Shushi as a sacred land.

People in Shushi say that before investing huge funds in the reconstruction
of the town, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh will have to settle the
issues connected with property. Moreover, it is not possible to do without
drastic measures. Someone suggests nationalization of earlier privatized
buildings, especially those which have historical and cultural significance.
Some believe it is necessary to `dispossess’ and to bring to account the
state officials who on preferential terms had privatized vast territories
for pennies.

**************************************** *********************************
13.** **AGMA: Musa Dagh photo collection for Armenian genocide museum in
Washington**

Arpi Harutyunyan

Rare and historically significant photographs of the Armenians of Musa Dagh
will be among the Genocide-era images featured in the Armenian Genocide
Museum of America (AGMA) thanks to the generosity of a private collector who
is providing the museum with exclusive access to the photos.

This unique collection of black-and-white photographs, dating from 1915 to
1939, is the life’s work of Dr. Vahram Shemmassian, a Los Angeles-based
historian who is the world’s leading expert on the Armenians of Musa Dagh.

`We are profoundly grateful to Dr. Shemmassian for allowing the museum to
use his priceless photo collection to help tell the heroic story of the Musa
Dagh Armenians against the backdrop of the larger and much more tragic story
of the Armenian Genocide,’ said Van Z. Krikorian, AGMA Board Trustee and
Building and Operations Committee Chairman. `In addition, as the foremost
authority on the subject of Musa Dagh, Dr. Shemmassian is able to provide
authentication of the evidence documented in these photographs.’

Musa Dagh (Musa Ler in Armenian) or the Mountain of Moses, stood on the
Mediterranean Sea south of the coastal town of Alexandretta (modern-day
Iskenderun) and west of ancient Antioch, was the site of the famed
resistance during the Armenian Genocide. Of the hundreds of villages, towns,
and cities across the Ottoman Empire whose Armenian population was ordered
to be removed to the Syrian desert, Musa Dagh was one of only four sites
where Armenians organized a defense of their community against the
deportation edicts issued by the Young Turk regime beginning in April, 1915.

Krikorian said the Musa Dagh photo collection is the fourth significant
collection of Genocide-era visual materials which, in the past year, have
been made available for use by AGMA. AGMA has been granted access to the
archives of the Near East Foundation and the Armenian Genocide
Museum-Institute in Yerevan, Armenia, and has received a donation of a
privately-held research library containing books, maps, photographs and
other materials focused on the Armenian Genocide and its documentation.

Dr. Shemmassian has also undertaken pioneering research on the fate of
Armenian women and children during and in the aftermath of the Genocide,
another focus area of the museum. Shemmassian, who is currently Director of
the Armenian Studies Program at California State University, Northridge,
said the Armenian Genocide Museum in Washington, DC is a "perfect match" for
his collection.

`The thousands of people who will visit the museum will be able to look into
the faces of those brave Armenians of Musa Dagh and learn of their unique
story,’ Dr. Shemmassian said. `They resisted and most of them survived, but
they were forced to leave their homes. These photographs document the trying
conditions and difficult challenges that the displaced Musa Dagh Armenians
faced as survivors and refugees.’

According to Dr. Rouben Adalian, Director of the museum’s research arm, the
Armenian National Institute, `The story of Musa Dagh is one of the rare
instances during the Armenian Genocide era where Armenian villagers, who
were targeted for annihilation by the Ottoman Turkish Army, put up an
organized resistance for 49 days and were eventually rescued by Allied
warships patrolling the Turkish coast.’

Adalian said, `There are no known photographs of the actual defense of Musa
Dagh, however, the rescue and delivery to safety in Egypt of over 4,000
survivors made headline news.’ The Austrian author Franz Werfel also
immortalized the gripping events in his `Forty Days of Musa Dagh,’ which
became a best-seller upon its release in 1933 and was
subsequently translated into numerous languages.

The AGMA recently received a copy of the Dutch edition of `Forty Days of
Musa Dagh’ from a Canadian donor whose family had lived through World War
II. Adalian added, `The book is important supplemental material to the Musa
Dagh photo collection, and points to the world-wide impact of the story of
the resistance of the Armenians of Musa Dagh.’

Of the three other sites where Armenians defied the deportation orders,
Shabin Karahissar, Urfa, and Van, only the Armenians of Van were rescued
when the siege of their city was lifted by an advancing Russian army. The
Armenians of Urfa and Shabin Karahissar were either massacred or deported.
Musa Dagh stood as the sole instance where the Western Allies at war with
the Ottomans averted the death of a community during the Armenian Genocide.

That story inspired the Prague-born Austrian writer, Franz Werfel, to write
a novelized version of the events as The Forty Days of Musa Dagh. Published
in 1933, the book became an instant bestseller, but with the rise of Hitler,
Werfel, himself a Jew, fled Vienna that same year. The Forty Days of Musa
Dagh was eventually translated into eighteen languages, while
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the Hollywood film company, announced plans for the
production of a movie version of the novel. The Turkish ambassador’s
protestations to the Department of State resulted in the intervention of the
United States government in the matter. In response to a veiled threat to
ban American-made films from Turkey, MGM studios permanently shelved plans
to produce the movie.

`Our analysis of the book indicated that if the world did not come to the
rescue of the Armenians, who were Christians after all, how could we, Jews,
expect help? No doubt Hitler knew all about those massacres and the
criminal neglect by the free world, and was convinced that he could proceed
with impunity against the helpless Jews,’ Adalian said.

In Eastern Europe many Jews read Werfel’s The Forty Days of Musa Dagh as
a
warning about their fate. During the Holocaust years, copies of the novel
are reported to have been circulated as a source of inspiration and a call
to arms in some of the ghettos to which the Nazis confined the Jews.

******************************************* ****************************** 14. **Sport: Armenia secures seven medals at AIBA world junior
championships in Yerevan

By Suren Musayelyan

Boxing

Seven of the eight Armenian boxers who had reached the quarterfinal stage at
the International Boxing Association (AIBA) world junior championships won
their bouts on Wednesday in front of a delighted home crowd in Yerevan thus
qualifying for the semifinals and securing at least bronze medals.

Hayk Khachatryan (70 kg) and Aleksan Nazanyan (80 kg) beat Turkish coevals
Burak Aksim and Dogan Er, respectively.

In other bouts involving Armenian boxers, Koryun Soghomonyan (46 kg) beat
Gianny Garcia (Cuba), Jonik Tonoyan (54 kg) beat Giorgy Manllkyan (Russia),
Artur Kajoyan (60 kg) beat Alexander Malinin (Russia), Volodya Hayrapetyan
(63 kg) beat Semajay Thomas (USA), and

Gor Margaryan (+80 kg) beat Artyom Vassilenok (Kazakhstan).

Samvel Voskanyan (75 kg) lost his quarterfinal bout to Russia’s Idris
Shakhmanov.

Five other Armenian boxers represented in other weight categories lost their
bouts at earlier stages.

The semifinal and final bouts are scheduled for Friday and Saturday,
respectively.

(Sources: Boxing Federation of Armenia; )

Soccer

FC Pyunik Yerevan have extended their lead to five points after Round 9
matches played in Armenia’s premier league. Scoring the winner only in
injury time of the second period, Pyunik registered a 3-2 victory over Ulis
last weekend and now have 25 points in nine games. The defending champion’s
chaser Banants surprisingly lost to Gandzasar (Kapan) 1-2 and let Mika,
which beat Gyumri’s Shirak in an away game 4-0, overtake the second place.
Mika have 20 points, while Banants are third with 18 points.

Meanwhile, last season’s runner-up Ararat continued their decline with yet
another defeat suffered in this season’s premier league games. This time
they lost to Kilikia 2-3 despite leading twice within the last half an hour
or so of the game. With nine defeats in as many games Ararat remain bottom
in the eight-club league.

In another development, Ararat have also lost an appeal against the national
soccer governing body’s decision not to issue it a license for participation
in the Euro-League, the successor of the former UEFA Cup competition,
meaning that Ararat will not participate in the UEFA 2009/2010 club
tournament commencing this summer, reported Armenpress news agency.

Meanwhile, the next round of matches in the league is expected over the
weekend, with Pyunik playing away with Kilikia and Banants hosting Shirak.
Ararat are due to play Mika and Ulis will entertain Gandzasar.

(Sources: Football Federation of Armenia; Armenpress)

Chess

Armenian grandmaster Gabriel Sargsyan scored 5 ½ points out of 7 and shared
the 1st-2nd places with grandmaster Jaan Ehlvest (USA) in a open tournament
held in Chicago, USA, reports Ehlvest beat Sargsyan in the
Blitz Armageddon play-off.

GM Varuzhan Hakobian (USA) was behind the winners with half a point and took
the 5th place. GM Tigran L. Petrosyan (Armenia) was 9th with 4 ½ points.
None of the three Armenian grandmasters lost a game.