ARMENIA: IS PRESIDENT SARGSYAN’S AMNESTY OFFER POLITICS OR PR?
Marianna Grigoryan

Eurasianet

May 29, 2009

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent announcement that he
is prepared to consider a prisoner amnesty has fueled debate about
his motivations. Some Armenians believe it is a tactical maneuver
designed to influence the outcome of Yerevan’s May 31 City Council
elections. Opposition politicians, meanwhile, suggest the president
is trying to burnish Armenia’s international human rights record.

In his May 28 statement, Sargsyan asked political parties and the
Public Council, a 36-member advisory body, to submit suggestions about
what form an amnesty should take. "I am ready to use my constitutional
right if the idea of granting new amnesties has taken hold in society,"
Sargsyan declared during a visit to Sardarapat battlefield, where
Armenian forces defeated Ottoman Turkey in 1918.

Opinion pollsters are not allowed to release surveys in the week
preceding the vote, but some analysts see the election as a critical
showdown between the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)
and ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s Armenian National Congress
(ANC). The City Council vote offers voters their first opportunity
to express their political preferences since the highly contentious
and ultimately violent 2008 presidential election. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The council vote is also the first that will determine who will be the
capital’s mayor. Previously the mayor was a presidential appointee. In
this election, the party that controls more than 40 percent of the
seats will see its candidate named as mayor.

"The major competition will again evolve between the opposition —
the ANC — and the authorities, the RPA," said independent political
analyst Yerevand Bozoian. Another analyst, Andranik Tevanian, head of
the PolitEconomy research center, seconded that view, though predicts
fresh support for the Prosperous Armenia Party, a member of Armenia’s
governing coalition, and the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, which recently left the coalition over
the government’s talks with Turkey. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

Republican Party of Armenia representatives deny that the president’s
statement was a "campaign trick." Sargsyan’s amnesty offer "is an
expression of his goodwill and has no connection with getting votes,"
commented Republican Party spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov.

For now, analysts are refraining from predicting how either the
opposition or the RPA might benefit from a potential amnesty. One
senior Ter-Petrosian supporter believes that Sargsyan is now talking
amnesty as a sop to the international community; in particular, to
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), which
has twice considered applying sanctions against Armenia in the wake
of the March 2008 crackdown on opposition protesters that led to
the death of 10 people and the imprisonment of scores of opposition
activists. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

PACE will again examine Armenia’s reform progress on June 5, five
days after the Yerevan council vote. "It’s somewhat unclear what the
authorities will exactly get in the upcoming elections by saying those
words, but, obviously, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to please the PACE
to gain more time," commented opposition activist Suren Sureniants.

International observer missions, including 15 observers from the
Council of Europe’s Congress of Regional and Local authorities, have
stated that they will closely monitor the Yerevan vote. They have
expressed a clear expectation that the conduct of the citywide election
should mark a considerable improvement over the handling of the 2008
presidential vote. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive].

Appeals for an amnesty have been repeatedly made by international
organizations — the latest coming in an April 30 PACE report. Until
now, however, Sargsyan has dodged questions about his intentions to
grant an amnesty. On April 10, for example, he said during a news
conference: "We’ll see when the time comes."

Analyst Bozoian believes that Sargsyan has now declared himself open
to the idea because he senses opposition support is waning. Attendance
at recent opposition rallies has fallen off considerably from earlier
gatherings. "I have the impression that the opposition is becoming
weaker and the authorities do not feel them to be that dangerous
anymore, so they will gradually release people, and will grant an
amnesty," Bozoian said.

Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based
in Yerevan.