AZERBAIJAN: BAKU CAN LEAPFROG OVER UKRAINE, GEORGIA FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP — SOURCE
Shahin Abbasov

Eurasianet

June 4, 2009

A senior source within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Joint
Force Command has told EurasiaNet that Azerbaijan stands a better
chance of gaining NATO membership in the near future than either
Georgia or Ukraine.

"Earlier, the perception in both Brussels [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization [NATO] headquarters] and Baku was that Georgia should
integrate into NATO first and Azerbaijan should follow," the source
said. "However, the situation has changed and it might be that in the
year to come Azerbaijan will become the frontrunner. Baku may enter
NATO earlier than Ukraine and Georgia."

After Georgia’s 2008 war with Russia, "[m]any NATO member-states
believe that . . . it is simply impossible to provide membership to
Georgia," the source continued.

Ukraine’s domestic divisions over NATO and political turmoil have
reduced its membership chances, he said. "It is unclear who will
represent the Ukrainian government in six months or a year and what
its position on NATO membership will be."

By comparison, Azerbaijan appears a bastion of stability. Among its
other "strong advantages" are the country’s "strong cultural links"
with NATO member Turkey and its strategic importance for the planned
Nabucco and TGI (Turkey-Greece-Italy) gas pipelines, projects which
"will deepen Western support [for] Azerbaijan in the coming years,"
according to the source.

If Azerbaijan opted to petition for NATO accession, "no one could stop
it," he continued. "And if NATO will decide to accept Azerbaijan,
Russia would hardly be able to hold it back." The source did not
state whether or not there are active consultations underway with
Baku on membership.

A NATO diplomatic source, who did not want to be named, said some
key officials at NATO headquarters in Brussels were pushing hard for
engaging Azerbaijan on the membership question. "Turkey, Romania,
Italy, Poland, [the] UK and [the] Baltic states," are among the
member-states also backing a fast track for Azerbaijan’s NATO
membership, the diplomatic source said.

A senior source within the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry confirmed the
information, but added that not everyone in Brussels is enthusiastic
about the idea of Baku’s membership in the alliance. "There are many
opinions there," the Azerbaijani government source said, referring
to opinion in Brussels.

One potential accession weak spot is democratization in
Azerbaijan. Baku has faced mounting international criticism for
the recent lifting of term limits on President Ilham Aliyev. [For
details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to the Joint
Forces Command source, however, the country’s political stability
and strong government could make the accession process "smoother."

Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan, long careful about balancing
its ties with both the West and Russia, has never openly expressed
an aspiration to join NATO. Baku’s relations with the alliance are at
the second stage of IPAP [Individual Partnership Action Plan], which
supposes ongoing military and other reforms in compliance with NATO
standards. By contrast, Georgia and Ukraine are at the "Intensified
Dialogue" stage, ordinarily the last step before a Membership Action
Plan and, eventually, a formal membership invitation. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs
declined to comment about Azerbaijan’s relations with NATO, referring
a EurasiaNet correspondent instead to Deputy Foreign Minister Araz
Azimov’s remarks on the topic last month.

At a May 5 NATO-Azerbaijan conference in Baku, Azimov stated that,
although he did not rule out Azerbaijan’s eventual accession to the
alliance, "NATO membership is not a universal panacea. The example
of Georgia showed that appropriate conditions must emerge for it."

"Appropriate conditions" could be interpreted as shorthand for
Moscow’s reaction. Amid recent talk of a potential breakthrough in
its 21-year struggle with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan
has worked dexterously to massage the Kremlin’s ego — particularly
on security issues.

At a May 30 meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission on
Azerbaijani-Russian Cooperation, Azerbaijani First Deputy Prime
Minister Yagub Eyubov expressed interest in expanding the two
countries’ defense industry ties, the Turan news agency reported. In
this game, energy also plays a role. Similar emphasis has been put on
negotiations with Russian energy giant Gazprom about Azerbaijani gas
sales, and on an agreement to increase gas deliveries to Russia by
80 percent in 2009. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

At the same time, Baku has made clear its interest in closer ties with
NATO. In late May, the government officially approved the transit
of non-military NATO cargo to Afghanistan, and the parliament voted
in March to double the number of Azerbaijani peacekeepers serving
in Afghanistan to 184. A month later, President Aliyev told NATO
Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer that further troop increases
could be possible.

In May, Baku also hosted two large conferences on partnership with
NATO, marking the 15th anniversary of Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the
Alliance. The month before, it hosted NATO military exercises, and took
part in broader, month-long exercises in Georgia that ended on June 3.

One Baku-based political analyst, however, does not believe that
these actions signal a change in Azerbaijan’s official go-slow policy
on NATO. "The Karabakh conflict is the most important problem for
Azerbaijan. It is clear that Azerbaijan’s NATO aspirations would make
Russia an open ally of Armenia in the Karabakh conflict," noted Elhan
Shahinoglu. "Therefore, Aliyev’s government is likely to continue
its balanced foreign policy until the time when and if it receives
clear support from NATO members on the Karabakh issue."

The NATO Joint Forces Command source conceded that Azerbaijan’s further
integration with the alliance "would make the military alliance between
Armenia and Russia even stronger," but did not elaborate. Azerbaijan’s
likely problems with Iran on the topic are also understood, he added.

Some NATO member-states have already publicly declared their interest
in Azerbaijan joining the alliance — albeit, on condition that
"[d]emocracy and human rights . . . and a strong and free economy"
are established, according to Romanian Ambassador to Azerbaijan
Nikolae Ureke, speaking at a May 12 NATO conference in Baku.

In the end, the case for Azerbaijan comes down to geography and
energy. Said Ambassador Ureke: "Azerbaijan is NATO’s strategic point
in the South Caucasus."

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress