LEBANON’S RULING COALITION CLAIMS ELECTION VICTORY OVER HEZBOLLAH
Hugh Macleod in Beirut

The Guardian
Monday 8 June 2009

– Saad Hariri expected to become prime minister
– Vote deemed fairest in country’s history

Jubilant supporters of Lebanon’s US-backed ruling coalition took to
the streets last night, claiming a decisive election victory. It marks
a dramatic reversal of fortunes after polls showed it losing its slim
majority to a Hezbollah-led coalition backed by Syria and Iran.

Fireworks streamed from the Beirut home of Saad Hariri, leader of the
governing coalition and the top Sunni politician who is now expected
to become prime minister. The post was held five times by his father,
whose assassination in 2005 triggered a prolonged crisis.

"We extend our hand to work together seriously and in earnest for the
sake of Lebanon … to build a strong and sovereign state," Hariri told
supporters in the early hours of the morning. "Long live democracy."

Appearing to concede defeat, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah told the
Hezbollah-run Al Manar television: "Whatever the results are, it won’t
change the sensitive equilibrium. Lebanon’s only choice is consensus."

Official results will be announced early today, but supporters
of the ruling coalition, known as March 14, last night began the
celebrations on the streets of Beirut, blaring car horns and flying
party colours. Local media reported that with 80 % of the votes
counted, March 14 – which won elections in 2005 by opposing Syria,
which they blame for Rafik Hariri’s assassination – had a slim lead
over the Syrian-backed opposition.

Voters patiently queued all day outside polling booths, many for
several hours, watched over by 50,000 soldiers and police in what
monitors said was Lebanon’s most free and fair parliamentary election
to date.

Isolated voting booths, indelible ink and a voter education campaign
launched by the interior ministry made the elections a significant
improvement on 2005, with turnout averaging more than 50%.

The vote pitted a moderate Sunni-led government, supported by the
west, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, against an opposition led by Hezbollah,
the Middle East’s most powerful militant group, which fought Israel
in the devastating 2006 war and is financed by Iran’s Shia government.

Presidential elections will take place in Iran on Friday and
fears about growing Iranian influence were evident in some Lebanese
voters. "My main concern is for the army to be the only ones to carry
arms," said Georges Abdo, a Christian hairdresser who voted for the
current ruling coalition.

Such fears were dismissed by voters supporting the Hezbollah-led
coalition.

"We don’t listen to everything Hezbollah says," said Harout Vartanian,
a 30-year-old Armenian kung-fu champion who said he was voting with
the opposition in order to secure his community’s represen tation
in cabinet.

There were widespread reports of vote-buying before the poll, with
some Lebanese expatriates being offered free air tickets home. Though
voting passed off largely without incident, tensions in the capital
and the battleground Christian towns remained high, with the army
imposing a midnight curfew on the capital.

"Democracy is a blessing we must preserve, a blessing that
distinguishes Lebanon in the Middle East," said President Michel
Suleiman after voting in his home town of Amchit, north of Beirut. He
urged Lebanese to vote "calmly and with joy".

With Sunnis largely aligned with the incumbent government coalition
and Shias solidly behind the Hezbollah-led opposition, Christians,
who make up nearly 40% of Lebanon’s 3.26m eligible voters, provide
the crucial swing vote.

Christian leader Michel Aoun redrew the political map in 2005 when
he forged an unlikely alliance with Hezbollah, weathering fierce
criticism from opponents. Aoun’s party, the Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) could have delivered victory to Hezbollah’s coalition if it
had gained 10 extra seats in the 128-member parliament, which is
divided equally between Muslims and Christians. The FPM has defended
its alliance with Hezbollah as helping to stabilise Lebanon rather
than give Hezbollah a platform for renewed conflict with Israel.

"If the west wants to make serious negotiations with Islamist groups
like Hezbollah then the FPM has set a precedent," Ziad Abs, who
negotiated the FPM’s alliance, told the Guardian. "The main threat
to us is from Israel. There can be no stability in Lebanon without
peace in the region."

While the US continues to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation,
Barack Obama has offered dialogue with Iran and is sending his Middle
East envoy, George Mitchell, to the region this week to work on an
Arab-Israeli peace deal, with a visit to Damascus expected.

In a break with US policy, Britain announced in March that it would
re-establish contact with Hezbollah politicians, making a distinction
between the group’s armed wing and its politics.