PanARMENIAN.Net

The world on the pan of Russian-American balance scales

Karine Ter-Sahakyan

Against the background of impending changes, settlement of conflicts
simply pales into insignificance and is shelved.
04.06.2009 GMT+04:00

US President Barack Obama’s dynamic foreign-policy activities have
equal chances of proving triumphant or destructive for the USA. To all
appearances, Obama wants to look a `peace dove’ or at least a
`conciliator’ in the eyes of the Islam world and not only
there. Delivering a speech at Cairo University, the US President
declared the aim of his visit – to seek a new beginning between the
United States and Muslims around the world: the cycle of suspicion and
discord must end.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ `Based upon the truth that America and Islam are not
exclusive, they need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and
share common principles – principles of justice and progress;
tolerance and the dignity of all human beings. There must be a
sustained effort to listen to each other; to learn from each other; to
respect one another; and to seek common ground. So long as our
relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who
sow hatred rather than peace, those who promote conflict rather than
the cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and
prosperity,’ Obama said.
The second major source of tension, according to the President, is the
situation between Israelis, Palestinians and the Arab world. `For
decades, there has been a stalemate: two peoples with legitimate
aspirations, each with a painful history that makes compromise
elusive. But if we see this conflict only from one side or the other,
then we will be blind to the truth. The only resolution is for the
aspirations of both sides to be met through two states, where Israelis
and Palestinians each live in peace and security. I intend to
personally pursue this outcome with all the patience that the task
requires. For peace to come, it is time for them – and for all of us –
to live up to our responsibilities,’ stated Obama.
All this is good; however, it can be derived from Obama’s words that
the USA can at some moment simply leave Israel and then the Jewish
state will cease to exist. And though the Jewish lobby won’t have it,
the idea itself about the creation of two states on the holy earth
already puts you on your guard. The US Administration may even be
tempted to resolve both the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the conflict
between Georgia and the separated republics in the same way; or, at
least, in a similar way, because, as practice shows, Washington can’t
boast a variety of conflict-settling ways, quite like Moscow…
Next month Barack Obama is leaving for Moscow. The visit predicts a
more serious conversation, or, to put it more accurately, a trading
for the new repartition of influence spheres. The good point is that
the new geopolitical map of the World will be divided peacefully,
without special bloodshed: naturally, small skirmishes are not
counted. If we take into consideration the fact that Russia almost
voluntarily yielded to the US control over Eastern Europe, most
apparently the South Caucasus will be under deal, because the issue of
Central Asia is almost resolved: Russia preserves control over
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The example of closing the
air base `Manas’ in Bishkek is more than sufficient. Another primary
task of Moscow is not to allow the flow of Turkmen gas through
Azerbaijan and Turkey into Europe, bypassing Russia. But, most likely,
she will manage that problem.
Thus, remains only the South Caucasus – most difficult and
unpredictable from the point of view of geopolitical
calculations. Whether Russia will be able to finally push the USA out
of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan and to insist on her own plan of
settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and normalizing the
Armenian-Turkish relations will become clear after the Presidents’
meeting in Moscow. Such turn of events in Medvedev-Obama negotiations
is possible, if we take into consideration certain statements of the
American President about non-polar peace, which, by the way, will lead
to even greater chaos and to an absolute dictate of one power. Thus,
there will be absolute unipolarity, in which neither Russia nor the
USA will have a place. For the rest of the world such an outcome of
the struggle for supremacy will develop into the great efforts of
China and India to control the demographic factor, worth thorough
consideration. Great is the role of the economic factor too, since the
main debtor of China is the USA, followed by Russia.
Against the background of impending changes, settlement of conflicts
simply pales into insignificance and is shelved. Probably, it would be
the best outcome for the whole region and for Artsakh in particular.