ECONOMIST ABEL AGHANBEGIAN PRESENTS HIS BOOK "CRISIS: A MISFORTUNE AND CHANCE FOR RUSSIA"
NOYAN TAPAN
JUNE 8, 2009
YEREVAN
By preliminary forecasts of Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development,
in case of the pessimistic scenario of development of events, Russia
will reach the 2008 level of its GDP growth in 2013, with 2011 being
the first year of growth. By the optimistic scenario of forecasts,
3.5 years instead of 5 years will be required to restore the GDP
growth rate. Academician of the RF Academy of Sciences, economist
Abel Aghanbegian stated this during the June 8 presenation of his book
"Crisis: A Misfortune and Chance for Russia" at the National Academy
of Sciences of Armenia.
In his words, "the main intrigue of the Russian crisis is how high the
second – debt wave of the crisis will be". He explained that Russian
enterprises have debts not only to foreign investors, but also debts
of a total of 13.8 trillion rubles (over 449.5 billion USD) to local
banks. The population has a debt of 6 trillion rubles to Russian
banks. In the opinion of A. Aghanbegian, the Russian enterprises have
no money to pay these debts, while the possibility of these debts’
restructuring by the banks is limited by the fact that the debts
subject to restructuring cannot be taken from the banks’ capital. The
capital/unpaid credits ratio of Russian commercial banks makes 17%. The
academician added that by information of the head of the RF Deposit
Insurance Agency Alexander Turbanov, this index may increase up to 20%
in the future, whereas foreign experts give an interval of 30-37%.
A. Aghanbegian said that the maximim amount of non-repayment of
credits may be observed in the autumn of 2009, so the Central Bank
of Russia has reserved 500 billion rubles to deal with this problem
of commercial banks, and provision of money to banks at non-security
auctions has now begun.
He added that in order to withstand the impact of the global financial
and economic crisis, both Russia and Armenia have an opportunity to
get financing from foreign sources. He said he is going to publish
a re-edited version of his book in September 2009.