NEW WAR OVER KARABAKH WILL HAVE DEVASTATING REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
08.06.2009 21:58 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is far from
frozen. Indeed, Nagorno-Karabakh is probably a more dangerous ‘frozen
conflict’ than those in Moldova and Georgia. Both sides continue
to compete in an arms race, making the region the most heavily
militarised in Europe. Azerbaijan is currently spending $2 billion
(~@1.4 bn) on military procurement, which is more than the state
budget of Armenia. In both countries, the animosity is very evident,
and hate-full propaganda appears each day. Peace remains a distant
prospect, with the ‘Minsk Group’ talks being held under the aegis
of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
producing no visible results, European voice reports. According to the
authors of the article, "Another Peace Role for the EU", a war over
Nagorno-Karabakh would have devastating regional consequences. It would
destroy the region’s fragile stability and undermine and seriously
threaten the security of energy supplies from the Caspian to the
international markets, including the prospects of the southern gas
corridor connecting the EU gas market with Caspian producers. Turkey
and Russia might find themselves supporting opposing sides, while
Europe and the US would be hard pressed to intervene. The price of a
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would be extremely high for the European
Union, as it has been in the case of Georgia – and so it is surprising
how little attention Europe is giving to the conflict.

"The EU needs to integrate itself into the Minsk Group. If Europe
is to become the main implementer and guarantor of a peace deal,
Europe also needs to be a part of the deal-making process. That means
France will have to trade in its seat, and the new EU representative
in the Minsk Process would need a clear and strong mandate, with room
to negotiate on behalf of the twenty-seven member states. Besides,
Europe needs to decide whether it supports Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity or not. There will also come a time when Brussels will
have to ask the Armenian government to withdraw its troops from
the occupied territories, and use leverage – including the threat
of suspending talks on a free-trade agreement and an association
agreement – if Yerevan refuses. It is impossible, on the one hand,
to laud Azerbaijan as an indispensable strategic ally in the quest
to improve Europe’s energy security while, on the other hand, to
fail to support Azerbaijan in its efforts to regain control over its
territory. Countless UN resolutions, NATO declarations and Council of
Europe positions have reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,"
says the article.

The EU’s new Eastern Partnership cites as its goal stability, security
and prosperity in the Eastern Neighborhood. "Without the resolution
of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict this will never be achievable and
the region will remain a ticking time bomb. Therefore the EU needs
to show that it has learned its lesson in Georgia and become an
active peacemaker in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan,"
the authors emphasize.