WHAT PLANS DO OBAMA AND MEDVEDEV HAVE?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
06.06.2009 GMT+04:00
In the issue the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation we have only
one truly serious problem – the status of NKR.
The impending visit of the US President to Moscow next month can be
considered symbolic: both Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev represent
the new generation of pragmatic politicians, not burdened with the
load of the past and having a clear view of peace. This view can at
first sight be unexpected for the majority of politicians of older
generation, such as Brzezinski, Albright, Thatcher, Carter, just like
certain ‘rebooted’ Yalta understandings.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Moreover, it is absolutely obvious that the entire
system of world order and the carcass remain the same as 60 years ago;
only the political vectors are changing. If after Churchill’s "Fulton
speech" Eastern Europe and Near East became priority regions, the
center has now shifted into the Caucasus and Central Asia. Moreover,
taking into account the significance of the Caucasus for the system
of regional and international security, we perceive that X Hour will
soon arrive for the region, whose future will depend precisely on
what Medvedev and Obama will agree on. Naturally no one is going to
surrender their position in this fight, a problem we have already
analyzed in discussing the spheres of influence. But there is
one more player worth remembering – Europe, or to be more exact,
President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, who is eager to show that
without the European Union, any initiative in the region is doomed
to failure. It was exactly what Sarkozy attempted to prove last year,
introducing the plan of Georgian-Ossetian conflict regulation. By the
way, he succeeded. And now he is flying to Moscow to participate in
the negotiations on regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Let us
note that earlier there had appeared information on Sarkozy planning
to visit the countries of the South Caucasus in the middle of July.
If we believe the last statement of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs
on the "possible meeting between Sargsyan and Aliev in July", we can
declare with absolute confidence that in Moscow talks the co-chair
countries, in the person of their presidents, will exert pressure on
the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. And who will win the fame
of a peacemaker is difficult to predict. But evidently it won’t be
Sarkozy, although the position of the EU is possible to be taken into
account and used by one of the negotiators as counterbalance. In case
resolution is adopted on the level Obama-Medvedev-Sarkozy, it would
be all the same who would voice it.
In the issue the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation we have only
one truly serious problem – the status of NKR. All the other "basic
principles" and Madrid proposals are based precisely on it. And,
naturally, it is exactly the status of independent Karabakh that
cannot satisfy Baku. Largely, Karabakh is necessary to Aliyev for
settling the internal problems of his country, and more than once has
it been discussed. The situation is similar to the Palestine-Israeli
conflict – Arab leaders condemn "the unwillingness of the authorities
of Israel to compromise" in order to distract their own population
from misery and radicalism. Thus, the bellicose statements of the
Azerbaijani President are simply statements. Obama and Medvedev
need a region that would send its energy resources along the routes,
selected for them by Russia and the USA, while the opinion of oil-
and gas-producing countries won’t be asked. At the moment there is
a banal trading going on – who will pay more? Iran proposed buying
all of the natural gas, mined from the second port of the Azerbaijani
deposit Shahdeniz at acceptable prices; China proposed $3 billion to
Turkmenistan for the development and purchase of gas, to say nothing of
"Gazprom" that purchases gas everywhere, even in Algeria and Libya. But
first conflicts need to be solved in order to ensure the security of
the gas pipes: be it Nabucco or anything else. Moreover, on the basis
of the same considerations of security it is also necessary to solve
the Armenian-Turkish problem.
But until the Presidents’ meeting there is still a month, during the
Presidential elections of Iran are to take place. Much depends on who
will become the new head of the only country in the region that is
almost independent from the USA. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is elected,
the region will remain as restless as now. However neither can anything
be predicted in case of the victory of Musavi – the highest spiritual
power in Iran belongs to Ayatollah Khamenei and without his blessings
nothing can ever occur.
Sure, there is also the Turkish factor, which cannot be ignored. The
visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Washington
showed that in distribution of influence spheres in the Caucasus,
Ankara is not determined to remain in the role of an observer. Ankara
is persistently trying to participate in the normalization of the
situation in the Near East, but she hasn’t succeeded so far. However,
she is also trying to play her role in the OSCE Minsk Group, where
she is always met with closed doors. But as soon as the mediators of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation are tired of reconciling
the conflicting sides, they may turn to Turkey for help. And what
outcome it will have for Armenia and the NKR is as clear as a day.