DESPITE ARMENIA’S WILL, CSTO PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES TO PREVENT CRRF INTERFERENCE IN REGIONAL CONFLICTS: EXPERTS

Trend
June 10 2009
Azerbaijan

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) participating
countries will prevent the interference by the Collective rapid
reaction forces (CRRF) in domestic regional conflicts, despite of
Armenians will.

"The probability of interference of CRRF in the Nagorno-Karabakh is
zero," Azerbaijani political scientist Tofig Abbasov said.

At a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev CSTO Secretary
General Nikolai Bordyuzha informed the president that a package
of documents to the next summit of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, which will be held on June 14, has already been
prepared. The document includes an agreement on CRRF, annexes
concerning the issues of command, rules of conduct, documents that
define the composition of military units belonging to CRRF and a
roster of forces, RIA Novosti reported.

The decision to form the CRRF was made at the February summit of the
CSTO in Moscow.

Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan are members of the CSTO.

According to Bordyuzha, CRRF is not occupied with regional conflicts
of CSTO participating countries.

Armenia is not satisfied with the decision, considering that the CRRF
group must defense CSTO countries of local conflicts.

"Yerevan is interested in a logic question what will be CSTO’s reaction
in case of military aggression to Armenia by its eastern neighbor. The
answer that we have heard (the reaction will be reserved or neutral)
does not satisfy us," senior official of Armenian Foreign Ministry
told the Vrema Novostei newspaper, who asked to remain anonymous.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. –
are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Despite Armenia’s will, CSTO participating countries will refuse the
interference of CRRF in local conflicts.

Armenia seeks a clarification of the rapid reaction force’s potential
use in the South Caucasus region, and wants a military security
guarantee from the CSTO that the force can be used to defend Armenia
"in times of crisis," reflecting Armenia’s threat perception form
both Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenian political scientist Richard
Giragosian said.

The CSTO will most likely neither provide Armenia with the specific
military guarantee that it seeks nor will it become any sort of
pressure against Azerbaijan.

Moscow seems to have a pronounced tendency to improve relations with
Baku, Giragosian said.

"Moscow may even see a need to entice Azerbaijan to seek some sort
of cooperation with the CSTO over the long term, and will not adopt
any decision that could turn the CSTO into any kind of balance of
counter against Azerbaijani interests in the region," Director of
the Armenian Center for National and International Studies Richard
Giragosian wrote to Trend News in an email.

Relations of Azerbaijan and Russia will not damage regardless of
decision to be made at the upcoming meeting of the CSTO, Azerbaijani
Political Scientist Abbasov believes.

"Russia is interested that its peacekeeping potential will play
a decisive role in the Karabakh crisis settlement," Expert of the
Lider TV Analytical Group Abbasov told Trend News. "Russia’s building
partnership relations with Azerbaijan relies on basic interests."

He said just these interests have a direct impact on a safety reserve
regarding presence in the South Caucasus, as well as the fate of the
global and long-term economic plans.

Observers believe not only Russia, but also the countries of Central
Asia will not allow the use of collective rapid reaction forces,
desired by Armenia.

The CSTO participants, particularly the countries of Central Asia
do not want to assume military responsibilities and to intervene
in the conflicts of two other states, said Kazakh political analyst
Dosim Satpayev.

"The remained participants of the CSTO will unlikely support the use
of the collective rapid reaction forces in the inter-state conflicts,"
Director of the Risk Assessment Group Satpayev said to Trend News
by telephone from Astana. "It does not meet the interest of other
participants in the organization, particularly, the countries of
Central Asia."

During a recent meeting of Defense Ministers of Collective Security
Treaty Organization in Moscow, Uzbekistan also opposed the concept of
the collective rapid reaction forces, precisely because, Uzbekistan
believes these forces have even too many opportunities and powers
that be a regional provider on safety, he said.

"If Armenia insists on strengthening of these forces, then Uzbekistan,
by contrast, supports those forces to be under control and less
involved in issues related to the security of sovereign states,
on which Russia," Satpayev said.

Armenia may just stay with its opinion on the matter, said the
expert. "I do not think it will be able to provide some pressure
on the process, because Armenia has no leverage on the countries of
Central Asia," Satpayev said.

As to aggression actions that may cause intervention for the collective
rapid reaction to be formed, the situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict has its own characteristics. The act of aggression has already
been committed more than 15 years ago, which has been clearly indicated
in four UN resolutions, Abbasov said.

"If Azerbaijan decides to liberate its occupied territories due to
failure of mediator-countries’ peace efforts, this will become an
action of compelling to peace as it was done by Russia during the
crisis in South Ossetia," Abbasov said.

E.Ostapenko contributed to this article.