PanARMENIAN.Net

Stakes on Presidential Elections of Iran

Karine Ter-Sahakyan

Quite possibly Iran enters a new phase that was once interrupted after
the withdrawal of Khatami, one of the first reformers.
11.06.2009 GMT+04:00

In the Iranian Presidential Elections, the first stage of which is on
June 12, main opponents are current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the latter supported by
reformers and, what is quite important, by the youth up to 30 years
old, who form 60% of the country’s population. The elections in Iran
are not so much important for the country itself. The vital point is
whether the country will be able to join the world-wide system of
values, which it has been refusing for 30 years already.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, it’s worth mentioning that these 30 years
were not lost. After Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, Iran that was
on the verge of collapse, developed into a strong and prosperous
country, presently pretending to the position of the regional
power. The nuclear ambitions of Iran played an important role in
achieving this, although it is yet unknown whether they are real or it
is simply a game with the muscles of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one of the
participants in the assault on the American Embassy in 1979. They say
Ahmadinejad lives in an old house of his, drives an ordinary car and
is in no way like a president of a regional power. Nevertheless, he
was able to win the previous elections and now has all the chances to
duplicate the success, of course if he is really agreeable to the
western partners. And here the complicacies begin. In the issue of
Iran, the USA and Europe have opposite positions, to say nothing of
Russia that has her own interests in the region and holds age-long
ties with the Persian Empire. For Europe, Iran is important as the
supplier of alternative energy and Teheran knows it well. For the USA,
she is an `Empire of Evil’ or something closest to it. But the Obama
Administration is far from Rice and Cheney, who managed to convince
the world that Iran must be punished for her nuclear program. There is
one more important detail in the difference of approaches of Europe
and the USA towards the future of Iran – the ocean. America is rather
far and the problem of energy security of Europe doesn’t worry her
much. Or, better to say, it worries her but from purely imperial
points of views. The same is true about Russia, but she is nearer and
therefore – more dangerous.
`To me, this election is basically a referendum on President
Ahmadinejad,’ says Nasser Hadian, Political science professor at
Tehran University. In order to gain victory the current President used
all the existing resources. The official media outlets, television and
majority of newspapers are under his control. He travels through the
Iranian province, where majority of his electorate lives. But his
opponent is strong too. Fifty-four per cent of Iranians are ready to
vote for former Prime Minister of Iran Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Let us
note that he used to be the prime minister of the country for 8
hardest years – during the Iran-Iraq war. In 1988 Iran signed
cease-fire, reached through the UN mediation. A year later Ayatollah
Khamenei replaced late Ayatollah Khomeini in the position of the
Spiritual Leader of Iran. The posts of the President and the Prime
Minister were combined into one. President of the country became Ali
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mousavi had to leave political
life. After former President Khatami declared his unwillingness to
participate in the coming elections, Mousavi announced his
candidacy. And today he is the main rival for Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. Both Khatami and Mousavi are ethnic Azerbaijanis, but in
a wider sense this makes no difference; any President of Iran will
carry out the policy, which is advantageous to his country. The only
matter is whether he will be able to carry it out and whether both
internal and external forces will let him do it. Quite possibly Iran
enters a new phase that was once interrupted after the withdrawal of
Khatami, one of the first reformers. But, who knows, the positions of
Ahmadinejad are rather strong too. On the other hand, Mousavi has
promised to make the country more democratic. For instance he intends
to repeal the order in which the standards of Moslem morals are
controlled by the special police of dispositions; he is also ready to
change the role of woman in the society.
To make predictions in this case is rather difficult – parties
interested in the victory of this or that candidate are too
many. Stakes are high too – the Iranian gas, so necessary to Europe,
especially when the realization of Nabucco is becoming ever more
illusive. The outcome of elections in Iran barely plays any role for
Armenia, but it is of great significance to Azerbaijan. Some
politicians in Baku have already been hasty in stating that in case of
Mousavi’s victory the country’s treatment towards Azerbaijan will be
changed, for he is Azerbaijani. However, these hopes are too
naive. Mohammad Khatami is Azerbaijani too; however, the policy of
Tehran towards Baku hasn’t changed at least for the last 30 years. Let
us not make predictions, as not always they prove to be true for
Iran. Naturally, the world is tired of the scandalous statements of
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but is there any guarantee that the one replacing
Mir-Hossein Mousavi will be more `convenient’?