A SHAKY ALLIANCE
By Sergain Balashov

Russia Profile
id=International&articleid=a1245090441
June 15 2009

Russia’s Continued Standoff with Belarus Signals Serious Trouble in
Bilateral Relations and Highlights Problems within the CSTO

The row between Russia and Belarus seems to have no end. The latest
round started with Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicting a
grim future for the Belarusian economy and Russia’s unwillingness to
make loans in foreign currency to its neighbor and closest strategic
ally. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko responded by attacking
Kudrin and the Russian government, and even taking a thinly veiled
shot at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin himself while instructing
his government to keep out of Russia and look for better fortunes
elsewhere.

The Russian reaction came rather sooner than later, when a ban was
imposed on imports of milk products from Belarus, further damaging an
already struggling economy. For Belarus the alliance with Russia is
more about the economy, while Russia has more of a political interest
in its Western neighbor. Lukashenko decided to act on that and ignored
the June 14 summit of the CSTO, a Russian-dominated strategic alliance
comprised of seven former Soviet states, predominantly located in
Central Asia.

The point of the summit was to work out an agreement to set up joint
rapid-reaction forces, meant to stabilize the situation in the region
amid what Medvedev called a "very high conflict potential accumulated
within the CSTO territory."

Russia is supposed to provide half the manpower for the forces, which
would be deployed on Russian territory. These threats presumably
come from Afghanistan, with its terrorism and drug traffic, and
Georgia, as further military conflicts there are not ruled out and no
non-aggression pact between Russia and Georgia is yet in place. That,
however, will have to be done without Belarus, as it refused to sign
the agreement and participate in the summit altogether.

Lukashenko has been known for his habit of putting pressure on Russia
to get more economic benefits for his country, which exists in a
mild state of self-imposed isolation in Europe and has faced heavy
criticism for its lack of democracy and the authoritarian style of
its government. Russian protection and economic cooperation was thus
key to the survival of Lukashenko’s regime.

Now, however, both sides have gone too far, and the media had
reported that Russia is prepared to start a new gas row with Belarus
in response.

Belarus was also supposed to assume the presidency of the CSTO at
the summit. Due to the absence of Belarus, Russia had to assume the
presidency instead. The Kommersant daily quoted a source "close to
the Russian government" who asserted that Russia intended to stay put
"until the end," and that any attempts to put pressure on it wouldn’t
work."Russia’s shortsightedness is really surprising. We are seeing
the same scenario repeated over and over again, first in Georgia and
Ukraine and now in Belarus. Russia has the same blueprint for handling
this kind of situation: first there are harsh political statements
followed by import bans, and finally these economic sanctions turn
into a political standoff. If Russia could be a little less arrogant
it would help the situation considerably," said Alexei Mukhin, the
general director of the Center of Political Information.

Lukashenko has two possible ways out; either to make peace with Russia
or to rely on international financial institutions, in which case
he would see Belarus’ proclaimed sovereignty, and his own political
influence, diminished. "The EU made it clear that they would not
aid Lukashenko, while the World Bank would be happy to do that. The
Belarusian economy would become addicted to foreign aid and then we
wouldn’t be talking about any sovereignty. It’s also very likely that
Lukashenko’s tenure could then slowly come to its end," said Mukhin.

The bitter split between Russia and Belarus has also exposed the
problems that exist within the CSTO, an organization initially set up
mostly to support the notion that Russia still dominates the former
Soviet region strategically and economically. While Belarus ignored
the summit completely, Uzbekistan refused to sign the joint forces
agreement unless changes are made. The Uzbeks are calling for decisions
regarding the use of the new forces to be made on a consensual basis
and not by a simple majority of votes, and want Uzbekistan to be left
with the option to refuse to participate in military operations on
foreign soil if it violates the country’s constitution. Armenia also
had objections prior to the summit, but ended up signing the document.

Lukashenko also opined that there was a rift within the organization,
and it seems that he wasn’t far from the truth. "The CSTO’s problem is
the lack of consensus between its members. If you want to be a powerful
influential global organization the members have to be consolidated,
but that’s something we aren’t seeing here. There is no doubt we
can’t even be talking about any rivalry to NATO; the CSTO is more of
a regional, or I’d even say local, organization," said Eugenia Voiko,
a foreign policy expert at the Center of Political Trends.

The adjustment of the member countries’ military doctrines to emphasize
the danger of local military skirmishes and the new joint forces
initiative could also mean that the CSTO is gaining some practical
meaning, as opposed to just being little more than a formal strategic
alliance. "This also demonstrated that the organization did not
intend to engage in any competition with NATO, strengthening their
own political stance and stripping NATO of an excuse to expand its
military presence in certain regions," said Mukhin.

But to retain its own influence, Russia needs to figure out how to
come to terms with Belarus, which never stopped being an important
ally. "Belarus has been one of Russia’s most consistent allies in
the former Soviet Union until this moment. Should Belarus slip out
of Russian control, Russian positions in the region would weaken and
it certainly wouldn’t help the image of either Russia or the CSTO,"
said Voiko.