ARMENIA EXPERIENCING FIRST STAGE OF GLOBAL CRISIS

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
23.06.2009 14:59 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The world economy has not reacted to the financial
crisis properly yet, said Tigran Jrbashyan, Director of Development
Department of Ameriabank.

"Yesterday’s fall of oil price and U.S. stock market slump alludes
to the fact," he said, adding that there are possible scenarios for
the development of world economy, apart from the two ones existing
already: L-shaped development and W-shaped development, the latter
being more realistic.

In that connection, our interlocutor added that recent official data
published by US recorded 9.7% unemployment. As reported by President
Obama’s Press Secretary, that rate may increase up to 10%. "That
means there are still difficulties to be overcome," Jrbasyan noted.

According to him, situation in Armenia is not consoling either. GDP
in January was -15.7% which is conditioned by decline in construction
sphere (56.1%). Decline in industrial production sphere made up 10.5%,
while good circulation decreased by 33.7%. "Macroeconomic situation
in Armenia testifies to the fact that we are experiencing the first
stage of world crisis," Jrbashyan said. Delays in implementation
of certain programs reduce tax revenues and investment volumes, he
finds. "The anti-crisis programs elaborated by RA government are, in
my view, properly planned. The whole problem consists in transforming
the decision in the private sector," Jrbashyan explained, adding that
it would have fundamental importance for Armenia in terms of helping
overcome the crisis impact.

As noted by Ameriabank’s Development Department Director, economic
entities are currently facing a problem of reducing production
volumes and consumer demand. And that leads to the situation we are
facing now. When investment activeness weakens, the state has to
attract additional financial means. And that’s what it is actually
doing, Jrbashyan added. The whole problem consists in speeding up
implementation of the decisions made. "During crisis when situation
constantly changes it is very important to have rapid reaction
mechanism," Jrbashyan said.