WHO WILL REMAIN LEADER IN THE REGION?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.06.2009 GMT+04:00

Iran plays rather an important role in the system of the Great Near
East, and the future of region depends on what track the country
will choose.

As it seems, events in Iran develop according to a plan, not foreseen
by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Instead of quietly dispersing to their
houses after the Friday Mohammedan prayer, in the course of which the
Supreme leader of Iran announced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected President,
opposition nevertheless requires re-voting, unsatisfied by the re-count
of votes. By the way, only 10% of votes will be recounted, selectively,
what is not even a concession, but simply a gesture of "good will".

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Confrontation of the opposition and the spiritual
power, which may cost Iran a revolution and even a collapse, may
extend for longer period of time, but no more than a year. Accusations
of the West and first of all the USA in weakening the country will
play their role for the time being. If opposition, at first glance
somewhat alienated, is able to unite, it will put the beginning of a
new Iran. By the way it is not necessary at all that this new Iran
arise as a result of a civil war, although ethnic disturbances in
this poly-ethnic country will be unavoidable.

However, all is not so simple: Iran plays rather an important role
in the system of the Great Near East, and the future of the region
depends on what track the country will further choose. Roughly
speaking – the matter is who will be the leader: the intentionally
vanished Turkey or the new Iran? Let us note that the President of
Turkey has not yet congratulated Ahmadinejad on re-election, though,
logically, he was supposed to. Turkey waits, and the future behaviour
of Mir Hossein Mousavi depends on how the events will develop. In
any case, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu is to conduct
negotiations in Moscow. For Turkey and, naturally, for Azerbaijan,
the candidature of Mousavi is more pleasing, even on the basis of
purely ethnic considerations. As it is known Mousavi is Azerbaijani,
though it is necessary to note that Iranian Azerbaijanis treat their
northern "brothers" with indifference. The only point is that Mousavi
will carry out a more open policy and it is what gives him power today.

The plans of reformists suit also Israel, which is truly interested
in calm and predictable Iran that does not threaten to wipe the
Jewish state off the face of the earth. Though it might be assumed
that statements of Ahmadinejad are only schema, called to prove that
Iran can do in the region what it finds necessary, but in any case,
it is never pointless to play safe. Most likely, for this very reason
Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon predicts the unrest
in Iran will lead to a full revolution in the Islamic Republic. "Since
I was head of Military Intelligence, I have said, and I say it again
now, that some 70 percent of Iranians are opposed to the ayatollah
regime," Ya’alon said, according to the Jerusalem Post. "Opposition
leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife have brought a new spirit of
openness, and so I repeat — there will be a revolution in Iran. It’s
impossible to hide the energy there now, and the Iranian regime is
going to have to take that into consideration. What is happening now
will not change the nuclear issue, but it is still an encouraging
development for the West… It’s a confrontation between Jihadists
and the West," Ya’alon said, Israeli media outlets report.

He also declared, "There must be a sprout of change alongside
the dialogue. This is also what the Sunni Muslims are telling the
Americans, ‘Be careful not to hold talks with Iran at our expense’. I
still cannot see the sprout, and if there is not sprout, then the
dialogue will be a waste and will work against us."

Meanwhile, British newspaper The Guardian reported that Iranian
reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi began marching towards the
Interior Ministry, accompanied by 10,000 demonstrators. The report
came from sources the newspaper defined as "credible". In the regions
crowded with demonstrators intensive police units and members of the
militarized pro-government militia "Basij" were deployed. Members of
the Ahmadinejad police are armed with knives and metallic rods, which
means there is still blood to be shed on the streets of Tehran. Whether
Ali Khamenei will be able to stop the unavoidable bloodshed, and how
Tehran will live after it, is open to question.

In general, Presidential Elections gave birth to a number of questions,
to which as yet there is no answer in view of the absence of any
information about the processes, which take place in parallel in
the world, enveloped by destructive tendencies. Against the general
background thus far appears unclear the position of Russia, one of
the central players in the Near East, attempting to preserve in the
Islamic world her positions lost after the collapse of the USSR. And
finally, how serious are the reasons for the Armenia Parliament
Speaker’s visit to Iran against the background of recent developments?