ARMENIA GOES TO NATO

WPS Agency
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
June 22, 2009 Monday
Russia

RUSSIA’S BUMBLING POLICY TOWARD ARMENIA WILL COST IT DEARLY, AND SOON;
Is Russia about to lose Armenia, its last genuine ally in the Caucasus,
to NATO?

Alarm bells are ringing in the Caucasus. Russia’s inept policy and
proficiency of the United States may cost Russia its last reliable
partner in the region, Armenia.

Joint statement of the foreign ministers of Switzerland, Armenia, and
Turkey proclaimed normalization of bilateral relations between Yerevan
and Ankara. It was an absolute impossibility until recently. Relations
between these two countries have been strained ever since the tragic
events of the early 20th century. Moreover, Turkey wholeheartedly
and actively backed Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia.

Russia’s lackadaisical and incoherent policy toward its faithful
ally compelled the Armenians to start looking for other ways out
of the siege. Neither was Yerevan entirely blind to the fact that
uncertainty with the status of Nagorno-Karabakh suited Moscow
to the hilt. In fact, the unsolved problem of Nagorno-Karabakh
was the only thing that shackled Armenia to the zone of Russian
influence. Assuring Armenia of its support, Russia blithely signed a
strategic partnership agreement with Azerbaijan – a document with a
clear emphasis on military-technical cooperation (!). Moreover, Russia
kept saying that it did not regard the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh
with its unclear status even remotely resembling the so called Kosovo
Precedent. It was Moscow’s way of saying that it was not going to
recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. A member of the CIS Collective Security
Treaty Organization, Armenia was plainly told by Russia that the CSTO
couldn’t and wouldn’t help Armenia with its domestic and external
problems. In a word, Russia did everything to make sure that Armenia
would grow increasingly more and more disillusioned with the alliance.

Opening of the border with Turkey will enormously benefit Armenia. Its
participation in the Euro-Asian transport corridor via the southern
part of the Caucasus to Turkey will secure air traffic to and from
the rest of the world. (As matters stand, Azerbaijan and Turkey are in
the position to suspend air traffic to and from Armenia literally any
moment.) Also importantly, Armenia will be able to expect the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh and its status to be at least suspended. A NATO
member, Turkey wields considerable clout with Azerbaijan.

All this progress was made after US President Barack Obama’s recent
visit to Ankara. It means that the Armenia and Turkey owe their
dialogue to Obama. In the meantime, Armenia will go for a genuine and
serious rapprochement with Turkey only with serious military-political
guarantees from Washington. With something like a promise of membership
in NATO. Georgia nearby will be happy. This turn of events will rid
Tbilisi of a Moscow’s partner nearby.

Besieged on all sides, Armenia is getting friendly promises from its
recent adversaries. Turkey, a NATO country undeniably encouraged by
the United States, is elbowing its way into the Russian sphere of
influence. In order to leave Russia without its last genuine ally in
the Caucasus.