RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN WAR CAN START AFTER JULY 6?

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
26.06.2009 13:31 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On June 29, Russian troops begin massive military
exercises on Georgia’s borders as well as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
– Kavkaz 2009. The exercises are planned to end on July 6, when Obama
lands in Moscow. The troops will be deployed and fully ready to go
into action for at least several weeks after July 6, which apparently
makes July the most dangerous month in the troubled South Caucasus.

There are other outstanding contentious issues. Kremlin-connected
Russian political commentators have been stating, "Obama’s visit to
Moscow can only be successful if he publicly announces a 20-25 year
moratorium on Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO."

There are speculations that the exercise is meant to attract attention
to Georgia’s fruitless attempts to join NATO.

In a recent opinion piece in The New York Times, three former diplomats
called on the United States to lead efforts to prevent a "new tragedy"
in Georgia. They argue that the West must step in to prevent a fresh
escalation of violence.

Some Georgian politicians, including President Saakashvili himself,
point out to the signs of new tensions.

It’s worth mentioning that Russia banned international observers from
the exercise, which will enable 8.5 thousand servicemen, dozens of
helicopters, 450 infantry fighting vehicles and 250 artillery pieces.

Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev thinks resumption of Russian-Georgian
hostilities is unlikely. "It will not happen if Saakashvili doesn’t
resort to unconcealed provocation," he said.

According to him, a military conflict in Georgia is possible "because
of a separatist movement in Javakheti, where numerous Armenian
Diaspora lives."

Paata Davitaya, Georgian parliament vice speaker, thinks that Moscow
can provoke Nagorno Karabakh scenario in Samtskhe Javakheti.

Meanwhile, colonel general Leonid Ivashov insists that was in Javakheti
is unreal. "I am confident that Russia will never wage war against
Tbilisi," he said, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.