TURKEY AND RUSSIA WILL WAIT TILL IRANIAN ISSUES ARE SETTLED
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
23.06.2009 GMT+04:00

Practice shows that it is almost impossible to please everyone, and
what is acceptable for Yerevan and Baku, might be totally unacceptable
for Stepanakert.

On the eve of the planned meeting of June 26 due in Paris Heads
of the Armenian and Azerbaijani MFAs managed to exchange stinging
statements, which in reality gives the impression of a desire to
make the forthcoming negotiations look more significant. On the eve
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov once
again declared in Istanbul about the "unconstructive policy" Armenia
has set in regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Armenian MFA reacted almost instantly, stating
that Mr. Mammadyarov’s statement testifies exactly the opposite – the
intention of Azerbaijan to continue her counter-productive policy in
the same spirit and just another time to attempt to shift the blame
onto Armenia. In other words, the statement meant a new break-up
of negotiations. However, it is necessary to note that break-up
of negotiations, in case it occurs, does not depend on Yerevan or
Baku. The only matter is that the latest events in Iran gave the West
to understand that even "controlled chaos" can become uncontrollable
and it is more preferable in this case to adhere to one’s previous
positions. The negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh continues for
this very reason. And it is unimportant for how long the process will
go on and whether at the end of the year there will be signed the
framework agreement, so often indicated by Mathew Bryza. Most likely,
nothing will be signed either before the end of this year or after it,
just like the regional energy projects hanging in mid-air.

Hardly will Edward Nalbandyan and Elmar Mammadyarov discuss in Paris,
for example, the Nabucco project, but this project will be implied,
just as 10 years ago in the negotiations was invisibly present the
oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. And thus, no pipeline will ever
bring to resolution of the conflict, no matter how eagerly Europe
and USA should be looking forward to it. The meeting of the Foreign
Ministers of conflicting sides, will be, most likely, dedicated to
the preparation of next meeting between the Presidents in Moscow due
in July. But again, it’s useless waiting for anything definite.

Nevertheless, let us try to predict the possible developments in
the region so far as it concerns the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Iran
will still long be feverish; it will keep the whole world community
in tension for rather a long time. Most likely, Ahmadinejad will
stay in power, but the possibility of conducting special elections
is not excluded: everything depends on how strong the positions
of Rafsanjani are and whether he will be able to throw down Ali
Khamenei. Possibly we’ll get the answers to these questions in the
near future. And only when the situation in the region is somewhat
normalized, Turkey and Russia will appear with their proposals on
conflict regulation. Moreover, these proposals will be too sharp
neither for Armenia nor for Azerbaijan, although practice shows that
it is almost impossible to please everyone, and what is acceptable
for Yerevan and Baku, might be totally unacceptable for Stepanakert.

Following the example of US new Assistant Secretary of State Philip
Gordon, all the interested parties began to speak of two and even
three principles of regulation. But, naturally, this is not the
point at issue. Everything is considerably simpler: renunciation of
Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for participation in regional energy
projects. In a word, what Armenia has always refused and will
refuse. Therefore no progress in negotiations, let alone the signing
of a framework agreement.

However, somewhat alarming is the latest statement of Ambassador
Vladimir Kazimirov. According to the Russian diplomat, the public
opinion in Armenia should be prepared for necessary concessions from
both Armenian sides concerning the Karabakh issue. "I believe the
Armenian community should be prepared for certain concessions it will
have to make to the Azerbaijani side. The Armenians of Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh can’t but be interested in the settlement of this
conflict", said Kazimirov.

Public opinion, of course, should be prepared, only the matter is that
in the last 15 years these societies have gone so far from each other
that "to prepare" them for anything simply sounds impossible. And
all words about "creating an atmosphere of confidence", "tolerance"
are nothing else but consonant to such expressions as "progress has
been achieved", "base principles", about which more than once have
we written.