PanARMENIAN.Net

Armenia is under the pressure of international projects

Karine Ter-Sahakyan

In contrast to her neighbors, Armenia is stable and predictable, and
in our restless region it is sometimes valued considerably higher than
hydrocarbon reserves.
25.06.2009 GMT+04:00

Only in the last month Presidents of Croatia, Syria and Georgia
visited Yerevan; two other visits – those of the Presidents of Cyprus
and Serbia – are expected next month. Even if we do not take into
consideration the shuttle visits of the Head of the Armenian MFA to
Europe, it becomes clear that the West makes every effort to tear
Armenia away from the Russian influence, or to reduce that influence
to a minimum. However, yet only the mechanisms of `soft’ pressure and
promises are put to use.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ It is natural that the weaker the country, the
easier it is to prevail upon it, and Armenia, alas, cannot yet pretend
to the role of a strong state in the South Caucasus. Sure, in contrast
to her neighbors, Armenia is stable and predictable, and in our
restless region it is sometimes valued considerably higher than
hydrocarbon reserves. Not without purpose do the talks on Nabucco
quietly come to naught after the Iranian events, just like the project
of South Stream. No one will be discussing any project until relative
stability is established in the region. And here, strange as it is,
comes to the fore Armenia, a country that can become a bridge between
the West and Iran, between the West and Russia not in words but in
deed. Georgia cannot play this role because of her unpredictability
and, to put it mildly, the indistinctness of her foreign and home
policy.
Nor is Azerbaijan fit for this role – it can only set conditions in
the energy sphere and come out in one bond with Turkey and Israel. The
visit of Shimon Peres can serve as confirmation to it. Quite possibly
Peres goes to Baku to restore the somewhat cracked relations with
Turkey after the operation `Cast Lead’.
Remains Armenia, for whom launch of communications can become a real
breakthrough into the world. The only matter is the price and whether
Yerevan is ready to pay that price. At stake are the resolution of
Karabakh conflict with minimum losses for Azerbaijan in exchange for
the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, and perhaps the Check
Point `Upper Lars’.
It is also nonrandom that exactly this week Yerevan welcomed the
International conference `Armenia at the Crossroads of
Communications’, organized by the Russian Institute of Eurasian
Studies. In the words of the participants, thanks to her balanced
policy Armenia very successfully cooperates with the CIS countries in
military-political, commercial, economic and humanitarian aspects. And
in this sense it is important to increase the level of participation
of Armenia in current and upcoming international projects within the
framework of transport, energy and other strategic corridors. At the
same time, participants of the conference condemn irresponsible
manipulation with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and with the
normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
According to Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center for
National and International Studies (ACNIS), Armenia is a key country
for the region. `The USA, Europe and Russia desire to see Armenia
weak, but stable. Now Armenia can become both weak and unstable. We
have developed serious strategic relations with Russia, but it is
necessary that these relations be balanced, and not vassal. Russia has
always been and will be nearer to Armenia than to the USA or Europe;
however, she should balance her position on Armenia,’ said Giragosian.
That Armenia is now intensely "coaxed’ is evident by the naked eye. It
is, so to say, the carrot, while in the role of the stick is the
Azerbaijani-Turkish threat or the attempt to repeat the Iranian
scenario, which this time will work in Yerevan much better than on
March 1, 2008.
On June 26 on the Ionian Island of Corfu will be opened the informal
summit of OSCE foreign ministers, on which several issues might be
solved. But since the summit is dedicated to security issues, it is
assumed that the meetings of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Turkey
and Azerbaijan will be in different formats. After the summit it will
be possible to make some conclusions about the expected changes in the
region, which will be fixed, most likely, at the OSCE annual summit in
the winter of 2009. However, it may happen even earlier; everything
depends on the course of events in Iran…