IRANIAN GAS AND IRANIAN TRANSIT – JACK-POT IN A BIG GAME

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
30.06.2009 17:51 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Gas context, in view of Iran’s internal political
crisis, receives international community’s response, Ruben Mehrabyan,
expert from Armenian Centre for Political and International Research,
told a PanARMENIAN.Net correspondent. The country’s unique geographical
location, its way to the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, its huge gas
reserves ranking as the second on world scale and a number of other
factors make Iran a key stakeholder in the formation of Southern
Energy Corridor. "Cooperation with neighboring regions through various
memoranda, declarations, energy and pipeline agreements totally fit
the logic of the Big Game in which Iranian gas and Iranian transit
appear to be a Jack-pot," the expert said.

Iran cannot adhere to status quo conservation policy in either
energy sphere or in foreign affairs. That will be impossible even if
Khamenei-Ahmadinejad manage to suppress civil movement and maintain
power. "Considering the economic hardships faced by the country, as
well as the incompetent and populist state government mechanisms,
the prospects of exporting gas are indispensable for overcoming
crisis. The fact is well perceived both by the West and Russia and
Iran. That is, Iran can be said not to have expressed its opinion
so far. And everybody waits to hear what it will say. Dissidences
in the country’s top leadership are, in my view, conditioned by the
extent of the country’s openness which mostly depends on changes in
Iran’s relations with the West. Such changes will be materialized in
gas export perspectives and large-scale investments in fuel-energy
complex and Iran’s infrastructure, as well as the introduction of
new technologies of extracting and transporting carbohydrates. That’s
to say, the country’s benefits are quite evident. So, the religious
theocrats ruling the country have no grounds to complain about Iran’s
becoming a rogue state and shoot citizens dead in streets and squares
of towns," Armenian expert said.

An open Iran is a good chance for Armenia, Mehrabyan is
convinced. "Being actively involved in global political and economic
processes, Iran can become accelerator of many big changes in
Middle East. That may smooth very many wrinkles formed over the past
decades and help large groups of population to overcome post-colonial
syndromes. In addition, it will serve as a lighthouse for the West’s
freedom-loving policy. And last but not the least, I don’t think
our neighbor will really gain the freedom and justice its citizens
strive for. Iran’s being open is also a factor which deprives Russia
of most of its energy levers. That is, it may push forward internal
transformations both in Russia and on entire post-Soviet territory,"
he stressed.