EM AZERBAIJAN – THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMME AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS
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25.06.09 16:08
The documents called "Eastern Partnership Programme" signed on May
07 this year between Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova,
Belarus and EU have a great impact. The "Neighborhood Policy" adopted
in 2004 and the signed partnership programme are based on a document
called "European Security Strategy" adopted in 2003. The observations
indicate that the Security Strategy is an outcome of military-political
shocks Europe faced on the international level. Thus, in the mid
of 1990 EU didn’t do anything to prevent the military conflict in
Bosnia. Only after the USA mediatory mission, the Dayton agreement on
Bosnia was reached and the conflict was put to an end. Then conflict
in Kosovo forced the EU to feel the political-military shock. It’s
true that the EU tried to put an end to the conflicts but failed to
do so. This is natural, because the EU didn’t have any real mechanisms
to settle these conflicts. It should be noted that prevention of this
conflict was also reached after NATO intervention. Finally in March
2003 during military operations against Iraq of allies led by USA
different opinions were observed within the EU. This is a third shock
for Europe. Especi ally the wars in Balkanlar indicated the EU to stay
defenseless. The Iraq war proved the importance of the involvement
of the USA in military context in Europe. Ensuring security around
the EU is important in regard to ensure its own security.
Today we can list following threats to the EU:
1. Increase of nuclear weapons 2. Terror threats 3. The State Failure
model in Neighborhood 4. Energy security.
This is a main term to get to work out different instruments and carry
serious reforms in the neighboring states. In this regard the Eastern
Partnership Programme can be considered one of such instruments.
If we take an attention to Eastern Partnership Programme and if take
account not only the cooperation in the field of energy security the
principles reflected here are the same with principles of Copenhagen
in 1993.
Certainly, adding the cooperation in the filed of energy is natural.
Because, after the final enlargement in 2007 the European borders
closed to a energy origins. Besides, Russian usage of energy factor
as a political pressure made topical this question for EU.
The region has strategic importance in geopolitical regard. After
collapse of Soviet Union the regional countries gained their
independence and there is built the important hall in geographical
context dividing the Russian and Iran geopolitical from each
other. Just the South Caucasus region is a unique spa ce playing
a role for guaranteed access to Middle Asia of West. So,the region
has special importance on the context of transit. Besides, region
settlement in geographical context between Russia and Iran determines
the geopolitical importance on global context. Also, the direct access
of region to a basin of Khazar with richest fields of gas and oil
shapes its geo-economic importance.
At present the region carries the importance in three directions:
â~@¢ The geographical position between Russia and Iran â~@¢ Access
to energy resources â~@¢ Importance on context of transit.
Among the above mentioned factors the first and third ones are
geographical so they are very stabile. But the second one is not
long-lasting. The natural resources are exhausted so this factor
is temporarily.
The policy being pursued by Russia toward region mainly looks like a
system of relations existed during Soviet period. Russian political
establishment didn’t escape from stereotypes of Cold War so this
creates a serious problems. This interferes with building bilateral
equal relationships with former soviet republics in psychological
context. Such a situation often creates a tension in the bilateral
ties. Russia treats to former soviet republics as its own space of
interests. This was proved in 2008 August during Russia-Georgia war.
At present Russia is one of the creates exporter of gas and oil to
Europe. Just for these natural superiority Russia uses the energy
factors in its foreign policy as pressure against western countries. On
the bases of this tension there is a chance of South Caucasus to
be alternative of Russia in this field. So, this alternative (South
Caucasus) gives an outcome like weakening of Middle Asia’s dependence
from Russia.
Another factor is Iran. Increasing of probabilities of Iran’s gaining
the nuclear weapon makes it real to become a Nuclear State in the
near period. Iran in the west part of region as a state of anti-west
inclination trying to get a nuclear weapon could be brought cataclysms
to region hard to be analyzed. Hereinafter the regional countries must
take serious account Iran and Russia factors in their relationships
with EU. If Iran get nuclear weapon the "South Caucasus Hall" will be
closed again as it was happened during Cold War period. The unsolved
problems in the region increase this threat.
At present the problems in region need to be solved are followings:
â~@¢ Security â~@¢ Settling of conflicts â~@¢ Sustainable democracy
â~@¢ Good governing â~@¢ Social-economic development
Just implementation of articles considered in the Programme (Eastern
Partnership) has a great importance in regard of settling of problems
above mentioned. Later the EU and the regional countries will earn
more.
A nother importance of Partnership Programme is that there is
considered to create a Civil Society Forum here. Involvement of
Civil Societies will create a real condition for programmes to be
effective. Of course the Forum to be built can realize mainly a
public lobby function, besides, in regard of building and promoting
of mutual relationships between Civil Society Institutes of region
this Forum will be beneficial. Because, if compare European Movements
in South Caucasus with other NGOs it’s clear that three Movements
are the institutions who share the same values and have common goal
and are real partners. To increase Civil Society Institutes active
participation in the process it would be better to give a Forum a
status of Observation and Consultative Body.
In the geographical, historical and cultural context the South
Caucasian countries are a continuation of Europe and if they can
execute this programme successfully this will be a great step toward
membership to European Union.
Surkhan Latifov EM in Azerbaijan