IS EGYPT IN FOR "DATE" REVOLUTION?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
30.06.2009 GMT+04:00
In any event, no matter how bloodlessly the change of power occurs
in Egypt, there may be staged the already approved scenario, when
opposition beforehand blames authorities for falsification.
On June 30 an oppositional Egyptian newspaper reported that soon
President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak, after 28 years of presidency, will
send in his resignation, proposing to his post instead of himself his
son, Deputy Chairman of the ruling National-Democratic Party Gamal
Mubarak. The news, let us say, is rather unexpected, if we consider
the prevalent traditions of "eastern democracy". The resignation of
Mubarak, if it actually occurs, can change the configuration of the
Great Near East, though in short term outlook.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Hardly will Gamal Mubarak carry out a policy
different from that of his father’s, especially as far as it concerns
the relations with Israel. The impending change of power in Cairo
can further develop in two or several directions, one of which may
be directed against the regulation of the Palestinian problem. One
ought not to forget that Egypt is the only Arab country with which
Israel holds diplomatic relations. In the course of the last 28 years,
after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat, Egypt considered it
for his good to maintain more or less normal relations with Tel Aviv,
at the same time remembering her co-religionists. But, it is also
true that only with the help of his iron hand did Mubarak suppress
the activity of all Islamic groupings in the territory of his country.
If we take as a version the invariability of foreign policy of Cairo
in relation to both her neighbors and the basic allies, i.e. France
and Russia, it is possible to say that under such distribution, the
changes in the region will concern exclusively the Palestinians. Let
us note that, in a wider sense, the independent Palestinian state
is necessary to no one, and first of all it is not necessary to the
Arabs themselves, as it is extra concern. The invariability of the
foreign policy of Egypt is suitable for Israel too, especially if
we take into consideration the recent close ties of Mubarak with the
White House administration, especially after the sensational lecture
of Barack Obama at the Cairo University. But policy is policy. It
is possible to say that Egypt to a certain extent imitates Syria in
the issue of assignation of the "throne". The same was done also by
late Hafez Assad, the former President of Syria. And friends were the
same – Russia, i.e. the USSR and France. Nine years has passed since
the death of Assad Sr. but Syria is only now ready to introduce some
changes in her policy in the region: be it withdrawal of forces from
Lebanon, attempt of having a dialogue with Israel and full restoration
of relations with the USA at the level of ambassadors.
In this plan, of course, Egypt has fewer concerns, but what will become
of the country in case the president is changed? Usually, and it is
already becoming a rule, the successor of a tough leader very often
finds himself in a more unfavorable position, which may generate just
another tension in the region, where besides traditional players there
will also be Turkey, Iran, and possibly the same Syria. We do not even
consider the basic players: the USA, EU, Russia and Israel. In any
event, no matter how bloodlessly the change of power occurs in Egypt,
there may be staged the already approved scenario, when opposition
beforehand blames authorities for falsification. Iranian events should
serve as an example for the entire Near East.
Early parliamentary elections in Egypt are due in September 2009. As
for presidential elections, they are to be held in 2011. And presently
it remains obscure whether they will be changed onto an earlier date
too, or Gamal Mubarak will bear the responsibilities of the Egyptian
President until the date of regular elections.
Thus, we may witness one more, this time "date" revolution, analogous
with the "orange" or the "green". However, the outcome of this
revolution in Egypt might be more pessimistic than in Iran. But
it may also be different. The USA or, to be more exact, the Jewish
lobby, simply will not bear instability on the border with Israel and
they will do their best to ease the dissatisfaction of the Egyptian
opposition.
There is one more possible scenario – the exact settlement of the
Palestinian conflict on conditions convenient for Israel. The key
to this scenario is the untraditional for the East resignation of
the state leader. In this case Tel Aviv solves the problem, using
the principle of "compulsion to peace", the precedent of which
already exists in the international practice. The only question is
what the Great Near East will benefit from it: just another war and
establishment of the state of Palestine without Jerusalem or certain
equilibrium, a special kind of Camp David Accords.