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July 7, 2009

ACNIS Director Richard Giragosian Comments on
US President Obama’s Moscow Summit

Richard Giragosian
Director
Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)

(7 July 2009, Yerevan)–Armenian Center for National and International
Studies (ACNIS) Director Richard Giragosian issued a statement today
commenting on US President Barack Obama’s two-day summit meeting with
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in
Moscow:

US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
concluded an important new arms control agreement that will reduce the
two countries’ nuclear arsenals by as much as one-third, as part of an
update to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction treaty (START). In
addition, the two leaders also signed agreements on resuming
military-to-military cooperation, restoring efforts to combat nuclear
proliferation and regarding Russian permission for US military forces
to transit Russian territory and airspace to conduct operations in
Afghanistan.

Although the Moscow summit resulted in an important new improvement in
US-Russian relations, the two leaders need to be reminded of several
further imperatives. More specifically, the US and Russian leaders
need to devote greater attention to the need for cooperation in
forging security and stability in the South Caucasus. Within this
context, there are five essential points for their consideration:

Arms Control for the South Caucasus: There has been a dangerous `arms
race’ underway in the South Caucasus for the past several years, as
Azerbaijan has steadily increased defense spending. Most notably,
Azerbaijan has increased its defense budget from $175 million in 2004
to almost $2.5 billion for 2009. Even more troubling is the
aggressive and militant rhetoric by Azerbaijani officials, threatening
to launch a new war against Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh. In order to
counter this Azerbaijani threat to regional security and stability,
there is a need for a new `arms control’ agreement for the South
Caucasus, with the US and Russia cooperating to prevent and persuade
Azerbaijan from acting on its threats of war;

Russia Needs to Recognize Armenia’s Strategic Value: Russia needs to
recognize the fact that Armenia is the only reliable ally for Moscow
in the region and needs to treat Armenia with respect. Moreover,
Russian policy toward Armenia should no longer treat Armenia as a
`vassal’ state, rather than as a strategic ally, and it must not
prevent Armenia from exercising its own sovereignty and independence,
including deepening ties with the European Union (EU) and NATO, if it
so desires;

There Are No Shortcuts to Democracy: Both the United States and Russia
seek stability in the South Caucasus. But neither country has
demanded enough from the Armenian authorities. Both Moscow and
Washington need to send a strong message to Yerevan calling on the
Armenian government to sincerely and seriously resolve the country’s
ongoing political crisis by inviting a new international inquiry into
the tragic events of March 2008, which left at least ten people dead
and wounded many more, and take steps to overcome the polarization of
Armenian society. The Armenian authorities must also be reminded that
they must now learn to govern–and not just rule–the country and must
be called upon to satisfy mounting demands for change and expectations
of reform;

The Need for a New Approach Toward Nagorno Karabagh: If the US and
Russia sincerely seek to resolve the Nagorno Karabagh conflict, they
must adopt a new approach that includes recognizing Nagorno Karabagh
as an equal party to the conflict and engaging the
democratically-elected leaders of Karabagh as full participants in the
peace talks. Only with the participation of Nagorno Karabagh can the
US and Russia hope to achieve any meaningful progress in mediating the
last `frozen’ conflict in the region;

Time to Pressure Turkey: Although there is a real opportunity for a
significant improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations, both Washington
and Moscow should recognize that the burden for such a breakthrough
now rests solely with Turkey and reaffirm the reality that the issue
has no direct link to the Karabagh conflict. It is also clear that
Turkey needs to take the next step by opening its closed border with
Armenia and establishing diplomatic relations and must, like Armenia,
impose no preconditions for such a move. Lastly, the US and Russia
must not mistakenly praise Turkey for opening the border and extending
diplomatic relations with Armenia; such a move is not a concession to
Armenia but is merely the basic behavior of civilized countries and
the minimum expectation of normal relations between neighbors.

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The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) is
a leading independent strategic research center located in Yerevan,
Armenia. As an independent, objective institution committed to
conducting professional policy research and analysis, ACNIS strives to
raise the level of public debate and seeks to broaden public
engagement in the public policy process, as well as fostering greater
and more inclusive public knowledge. Founded in 1994, ACNIS is the
institutional initiative of Raffi K. Hovannisian, Armenia’s first
Minister of Foreign Affairs. Over the past fifteen years, ACNIS has
acquired a prominent reputation as a primary source of professional
independent research and analysis covering a wide range of national
and international policy issues.

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