CHANGES IN PERCEPTION OF ARMENIANS OF NAGORNYY KARABAKH RESOLUTION
Mediamax
July 11 2009
Armenia
The Armenian International Centre for Human Development (ICHD) has
implemented Town Hall Meetings (THM) on principles, processes and
developments on settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in 2006,
2007 and 2009 in 14 communities of Armenia and six communities in the
[Azerbaijan’s breakaway] Nagornyy Karabakh republic [NKR]. We asked
Tevan Poghosyan, the executive director of the ICHD, to comment on
the changes of the attitude of the people revealed during the recent
Town Hall Meetings. Below you will find his comments.
The THMs were based on various scenarios of the resolution of the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Those included the non-resolution
status quo, as well as four resolution scenarios ranging from
Azerbaijani-sponsored "Nagornyy Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan" to
compromise-based solutions. A number of key issues were discussed
through the scenarios, including reconciliation and resettlement
of refugees, stationing of peacekeeping forces in the borderline,
territorial deals, corridors, and most importantly the issue of
security and the status of the NKR. The scenarios were formulated
based on negotiation principles ever reflected in media.
The preliminary analysis of the dynamics of the THM results reveals
a number of qualitative and quantitative findings and observations.
First, it is clear that the position of people on conflict regulation
has toughened significantly throughout 2006-2009. Thus, the status
quo in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict has been supported by only
a third of the THM participants in 2006, however, over half of the
THM participants (58.5 per cent) consider the status quo a proper
development of the conflict in 2009.
Second, the position on regulation of the conflict has toughened
severely among NKR residents.
Specifically, the number of supporters of the status quo has increased
threefold among NKR people in 2006-2009: currently two-thirds of
the THM participants in NKR support the status quo. Interestingly,
the status quo gained more support in Armenia (28 per cent) rather
than in the NKR (37 per cent) in 2006, while currently 44 per cent
of Armenians support the status quo against 77 per cent status quo
supporters in NKR communities.
Third, it is remarkable, that the attitude of the people has changed
drastically throughout 2009. Thus, though the status quo has been
supported by around 40 per cent of the participants of THMs in five
communities of Armenia in January-April 2009, nevertheless the status
quo supporters were 49 per cent of the participants of the THMs in
other five communities of Armenia in May-June 2009.
Moreover, the attitude of the NKR people toughened even more
severely. It is also noteworthy, that the number of the THM
participants in the communities of Armenia who were dissatisfied by
all of the conflict regulation scenarios, as well as the status quo
increased threefold (30 per cent in May-June against 11 per cent
in January-May 2009). This qualitative observation requires minute
interpretation.
The conclusion is quite straightforward: the post-April developments of
Armenian-Turkish negotiations, particularly, well-known public speeches
and messages emanated by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, have changed
the attitude of Armenian and NKR people related to compromise solutions
of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict dramatically. Specifically, despite
expectations that Turkey will respect the commitments on regulating
Armenian-Turkish relations with no preconditions, the following
controversial messages voiced by Erdogan of Turkey several times since
May 2009, that once again linked the improvement of Armenian-Turkish
relations with the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict,
led to a sound disappointment among Armenians and NKR people.
Such a disappointment has in turn backfired on the perception of
compromise solutions of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and reaching a
trustworthy agreement with Azerbaijan. As a result, the public is far
less perceptive to considering compromise solutions to the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict than it was a few months ago.