TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT AND OBAMA’S POLICY IN THE CAUCASUS

Národná Obroda
July 15 2009
Slovakia

I have asked Vahan Dilanyan, President of Political Developments
Research Center, Yerevan, to write an article for Slovak magazine
Euro-Atlantic Quarterly. He was very kind and he agreed. His piece
was published in Slovak in 2/2009 edition and you can find it here
in English.

The developments from the Russian-Georgian war of last August, to
the global financial crisis brought about essential changes in the
political situation in the Caucasus. All the energy programs that
have until now been implemented in the region, having Armenia debarred
from, have always made the Caucasus "incomplete" in terms of regional
security. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa pipelines blocked
during August war asserted the time for "political railroads, roads
and pipelines" is over and that the Caucasus would be more secure
if it were full of "economic cross-roads". In these circumstances,
Turkish and Armenian leaders took historic and courageous steps on
reconciliation of their over 15 years "closed" relationships. The
rapprochement of Turkey and Armenia considers being "a new Door" for
resolution the vacuum in the region and creation of good atmosphere
for future regional intimacy.

In 1993 Turkey closed the borders with Armenia regarding
Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenians. Ankara
has always set preconditions on Armenia to opening the borders;
withdrawal of Armenian troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and refusal of
Armenian Genocide done by Ottoman Turks in 1915. Instead, Yerevan
has been demanding the opening of the border and the establishment
of diplomatic relations "without any precondition."

Turkey and Armenia intensified their negotiations in August 2007 with
diplomats regularly meeting in Geneva to discuss the issues related
to reconciliation. With President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Yerevan in
September last year to attend a Turkish-Armenian soccer match, and the
meeting between Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Turkish Prime
Minister Tayip Erdogan in January 2009 during World Economic Forum in
Davos, indicated the political will of both sides about proceeding with
rapprochement. The next meeting of Armenian and Turkish Presidents in
Prague on the 8th May 2009 was the "verification of common wishes";
"We agreed to respect the agreement reached," the Armenian President
told reporters.

Since mid 1990s US has worked intensively on establishing a
dialogue between Turks and Armenians through meetings among Civil
society actors. Both of these two nations entertained big hopes with
President-elect Obama. The recent visit to Ankara of US President made
obvious that US fully supports the started dialogue between Ankara
and Yerevan. "An open border would return the Turkish and Armenian
people to a peaceful and prosperous coexistence that would serve both
of your nations. That is why the United States strongly supports
the full normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia."-
President Obama stated in the Turkish Parliament. Back then both Turks
and Armenians were impatient to observe president Obama’s annual
April 24 statement, the day when the world’s Armenians commemorate
the historical tragedy. Barrack Obama’s campaign promise was to call
the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 a "Genocide".

Turkey is sensitive about Genocide issue. It had several times been
stated by Turkish side that the incremental diplomatic progress could
well be lost if Obama recognizes Armenian Genocide. The "solution" was
found in April 22, when Turkey and Armenia, together with the Swiss
mediators, signed a joint statement saying: "The two parties have
achieved tangible progress and mutual understanding in this process
and have agreed on a comprehensive framework for the normalization
of bilateral relations in a mutually satisfactory manner." In this
context, a road-map has been identified. Later on April 24 American
President tried to please all sides, by uttering the Armenian term
"Medz Yeghern", meaning "great calamity" and praising Turkey’s and
Armenia’s peacemaking efforts. The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet writes,
Turkey signed the agreement under US pressure to escape from the
Obama’s possible pronunciation of the term "Genocide".

The US State Department welcomed the agreement. "It has long been and
remains the position of the United States that normalization should
take place without preconditions and within a reasonable timeframe,"
said spokesman Robert Wood. It was obvious that the "road-map" was one
of the achievements of Obama’s policy in the Caucasus. It essentially
refreshed the US traditional position in Turkish-Armenian dialogue
process and balanced the recently activated Russian influence over it.

Baku is distressed about Turkish-Armenian rapprochement as it
has always had Turkey’s sympathy over Azerbaijan regarding the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The road-map alarmed the possible end of
"one nation-two states" Azeri-Turkish concept as no mention of the
Karabakh precondition was there in the agreement. Yet the philosophy
of Obama’s security policy considers the opening of Armenian-Turkish
borders as a "clue" of re-establishing "Trust" in the region and
a stimulus to settle the Karabakh conflict. The "positive mood"
created by the Turkish-Armenian roadmap, "gives a new energy to
accelerate our work to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict"
said Matthew Bryza, US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Turkish-Armenian intimacy will also destroy the "century wall" between
US and Russia. Armenia is the only country bordering Turkey, a NATO
member, where Russia has troops, the only Russian military presence
in the Caucasus. After the borders open and diplomatic relations
establish, there will be no need of Russian troops presence. It will
assist NATO’s enlargement towards the East, and US could see Turkey
as a "controller" in the Caucasus. Turkish-Armenian intimacy could
positively influence the possible formation of a dialogue between
Iran and West taking Armenia’s friendly relations with Iran.

Therefore, this will have a regional re-balancing role on the Russia
dimension. The latter though, meets several challenges. Turkey imports
65% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia, Armenia’s
railroads belong to Russian Railways and 70 % of the energy sector of
the country also is owned by Russians. These facts create obstacles
on Armenia’s entire integration to the West through Turkey. However,
the re-opening of Kars-Gyumri rail-road, which could be one of the
1st steps of the road-map, is welcomed by Russia as well. Moscow now
supports the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement while it has always been
worried about loosing control in the Caucasus if Armenia integrates
with Turkey. The August war has "cut" Russia’s "connections" with
the South. Now it needs to functionalize "alternative connections",
through Armenia and Turkey, while trying to isolate Georgia. Moscow’s
will to buy Azerbaijan’s gas which is considered to become one of
the main suppliers for Nabucco, and the intention to realize the
Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran railroad project, pursues the same purpose.

It should be noted that the Turkey’s recently activated "eastern
initiative" has formed a new environment for Turkish-Russian
rapprochement. US should take into consideration the recent
actions by Turkey; the fact that Turkey, being a NATO member,
kept a neutral position in Russian-Georgian war and the "Security
Platform in Caucasus" offered by Turkey without the consent of the
United States. However, Obama’s opposition on the war in Iraq, which
caused Turkey to turn away from the US, has created a good atmosphere
to re-evaluate the American-Turkish partnership. The recent visit of
president Obama to Turkey was a big boost towards this end. The US full
support on Turkish-Armenian dialogue adds on to the reconsideration
of the Turkish role in key energy pipelines. In this case, if Turkey,
under US pressure, manages to reach to stabilized relations with
Armenia, new routes for natural gas to Europe could open up in
the future, decreasing Russian leverage against Europe. The law of
Geopolitics highlights that the closeness of two Eurasian Powers’
interests is timely, and that they naturally confront. Thus,
Turkey should realize the rapprochement with Russian isn’t
long-lasting. Besides, Obama’s new administration should coordinate
efforts on keeping up with its traditional image on Turkish-Armenian
dialogue formation, which will affect the resolution of other conflicts
in the region, create a "window of opportunity" for alternative energy
projects and move the Caucasus states towards a common secure future.