POLITICAL DERBY OF THE PRESIDENTS
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
18.07.2009 GMT+04:00
For the first time after the last six meetings between the Presidents
nothing was declared even by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, who, as
a rule, vigorously and with optimism used to speak of the "progress,
advancements and constructivism".
Almost no one doubted that the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting could not end
up without an apparent result. However, that in no way influenced
the so-called political scientists from Armenia and Azerbaijan,
who spoke of some agreement to be signed in Moscow on "disloyalty to
one’s national interests", "putting one’s native land on the market"
and so forth. A very interesting, if not a serious thing happened:
neither the Presidents, nor the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan gave an interview to the press.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ All this leads to certain conclusions, which, by
the way, are rather uncomforting. Judge yourselves: for the first time
after the last six meetings between the Presidents nothing was declared
even by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, who, as a rule, vigorously
and with optimism used to speak of the "progress, advancements and
constructivism". And even optimistic Bryza was rather careful in his
estimations of the meeting. It can be assumed that some resolution
was carried, which, to all appearances, was rather fundamental and
about which it is still early to speak. Judging by the gloomy face
of Ilham Aliyev, the course of negotiations was not quite satisfying
for him. Quite probably the gas did not become a trump card: under
equal conditions the essential thing is strategic partnership, which
Russia needs in the region as the breath of life, because ousting of
Moscow occurs at full speed and it is pretty noticeable. The question
is whether RF will go on open aggravation of situation in the South
Caucasus and whether the latter will be reflected on Armenia and
NKR. And if we also add to this the increasing in frequency visits
of the American servicemen and diplomats to Armenia, the situation
becomes totally depressing. Europe tries not to fall behind either:
the visit of the CSTO Secretary General into Baku and the regional
visit of the EU Three immediately after the Moscow meeting suggest
something. Judge yourselves: Armenia obtains defense technology with
CSTO shares; Azerbaijan is hastily and intensively arming herself,
although it seems she is already armed to the teeth and for the
"return" of Karabakh so much weapon and technology is unnecessary;
Georgia waits for the arrival of US Vice President Joseph Biden,
and all this against the background of intensifying propagandistic
war of Baku against Yerevan.
Against this background stood out the "calm" meeting of the Presidents
of Armenia and Azerbaijan under the wakeful eye of Moscow. It means,
breakthrough has actually occurred in Moscow and now it is time to
calculate its effect on Nagorno Karabakh. In a broader sense, there
are two outcomes and both can end in a war: either the NKR is finally
confirmed as an independent state, or the world community returns the
safety zone to Baku. And here it will already be unimportant how many
regions we’ll have to give; the only important thing is that by the
domino principle NKR will change into NKAO (Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous
Oblast). And this is exactly what Azerbaijan has been seeking for the
last 15 years. As we already stated, alas, war is inevitable in both
cases. And this war is first of all beneficial to Russia so that she
would not be sacked out from the region. It is natural that at first
Moscow will maintain friendly relations with her traditional ally,
but what will come next is difficult to predict. And when the USA
and Europe speak of the catastrophe that awaits the region in case
of renewal of military operations, they are right. They don’t need a
war; they solve their problems in a totally different way. Especially
because neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan or Iran (however strange it
may sound at first glance, Iran too) will be looking back at Moscow,
if they value themselves. Remains Armenia which may actually appear
in complete isolation for purely objective reasons. No matter how
unpleasant it may be for the Russians, no one loves them in the
region. Other nations put up with them, but at any moment they
are ready to turn to the West as Georgia did, or as Azerbaijan was
ready to do. Even the Iranian opposition has already begun to shout
"death of Russia!", "death to China!". And this is already serious:
change of guidelines in the foreign policy of Iran is just round the
corner, and evidence to it is the appointment of a new chief for the
country’s nuclear program Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s former envoy to the
U.N. nuclear watchdog agency. He is also known to have been against
the war with Israel and support opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi.
In a word, somehow we don’t have to speak of an "unproductive"
meeting. Once again the region is on the verge of a war and, as usual,
attempts are made to reshape it. And if we also recall the problems
with the Kurds, with the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, and with
the gas pipe Nabucco, which is a bone stuck in the throat of Russia,
we can assume that to all appearances serious changes may occur by
autumn. By the way, the next Sargsyan-Aliev meeting is due in autumn.