ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN ARMENIA TO REACH 10-12 PER CENT IN 2009

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
22.07.2009 19:06 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Economic downturn in Armenia will reach 10-12 per
cent in 2009, Tigran Jrbashyan, director of development of Ameriabank
told a news conference today. According to Mr. Jrbashyan, Armenia’s
GDP continues to decline, recession has already reached a 16.3 per
cent rate, and only in July and August the recession pace will begin
to slow, and this will be the first positive signal. "I do not think
that the GDP decline will reach 20 per cent (worst scenario of the
RA government), according to a realistic scenario it will reach
10-12 per cent," he said. According to Tigran Jrbashyan the GDP is
influenced by many factors: the activity in the financial markets,
the situation with oil, etc.

Reduced activity of the foreign trade provided Armenia with an
"airbag". "If over the first half of 2008 negative trade balance
reached USD 1.3 billion, then now it is equal to USD 1,097," he
informed. However, the reduction of negative balance occurs with the
general decrease in exports. "This has its explanation, as the foreign
markets for domestic goods begun to recover and grow, and only the
outcomes of the third quarter of 2009 will show that the decline of
exports will shift into low gear in Armenia," the expert said.

According to him, this crisis is the possibility: leaders will appear
in each sector of the economy, they will be able to win the free niches
due to their competitive advantages, the economy will be restructured,
and "we will have a post-crisis economy".

According to the RA National Statistical Service, exports from
Armenia decreased by 45.9 per cent declining to 98.9 billion AMD over
January-June this year compared to the same period last year. Imports
decreased by 27,5 per cent and amounted to 479.9 billion AMD. Negative
balance reached 381 billion AMD ($ 1097,3).

Armenia’s foreign trade turnover in January-June 2009 amounted to 578.8
billion AMD, 31.5 per cent less the same indicator last year. This
external deficit in January-June 2009 amounted to 381 billion AMD.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress