ONLY "RANDOM" COURSE OF EVENTS CAN PREVENT IRAN FROM CONSOLIDATING ITS PLACE IN THE REGION
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
21.07.2009 GMT+04:00

Possibly, Teheran will make some, so to speak, concessions. More than
participation in regional projects Iran needs outlet to the outer
world, so that she would no more be ascribed to "outcast" countries.

The latest events in the region clearly show that Iran is more and more
enthusiastically consolidating her position as a regional power and
is determined to participate in all the regional projects, starting
with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation and concluding with
Nabucco. Teheran clearly and unequivocally gives the West to understand
that she is ready to cooperate on all the regional problems, and,
most evidently, neither Europe nor the USA are categorically against
Teheran’s determination to actually become a regional power.

However, it is noteworthy that not all the states in the world are
ready to accept the ayatollah regime and to cooperate with it. The
opposition in the person of Rafsanjani and Khatami still attempts to
call in question the results of presidential elections in Iran. Let
us not discuss how founded or unfounded their claims are: elections
in any eastern and even western country are always a fair chance
for the opposition to once more remind about themselves or, if they
have such an order, to arrange a "minor revolution". It is what the
opposition in Iran still attempts to do, calling people to meetings
and to referendum. However, what worked in a number of countries,
will definitely not work in Iran. And the matter is not only the
mentality of the Iranians; simply, if a revolution occurs, it will
end up in blood and destabilization of the whole region. For this
very reason the West does not reply Iran with a definite "No". But
if we also add to this the incomprehensible games around the Leader
of the Nuclear Program of Iran, we can assume that Teheran may make
some, so to speak, concessions. More than participation in regional
projects Iran needs outlet to the outer world, so that she would
no more be ascribed to "outcast" countries. Specifically, for this
very reason are made the statements on the readiness to supply gas
for Nabucco, which will turn from a "dream gas pipe" into reality
only if the Iranian gas is pumped up into it. As for Azerbaijan,
the situation seems quite clear with her – Europe will get only the
crumbs remained from Gazprom. Moreover, the latest tough statement of
the EU Three about the arrested journalists, which badly harms Baku’s
reputation in the eyes of the world community, may make Azerbaijan an
"improper" partner, no matter how keenly Baku denies it.

However, as far as the Karabakh issue is concerned, here too Iran
will try and, in all probability, will secure the consideration of her
interests in the negotiation process. And it is still unknown whether
the OSCE Minsk Group will refuse to consider this factor. Reasons are
several and the most important is the absence of personal interests
(at least, in words) in using a counterweight against the open
pro-Azerbaijani position of Turkey. Naturally, Iran has more chances
in this so-to-say competition.

However, things do not end at that. The sharp reproof addressed to
Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the representatives of
the elite, who undermine the foundations of the state, clearly shows
to the world what can become of Iran if the opposition continues the
protest demonstrations. There will be arrests, gunfire, and, at best,
exile from the country. In other words, we’ll have the same situation
when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power. One more thing should
be remembered: Iran is not the country to intimidate or blackmail like,
for example, Turkey. Teheran may come out to be a far more fitting
ally for the West in view of its predictability, what can’t be said
about Turkey and, what is more, about Azerbaijan, the leadership of
which is not in its best shape now. It became especially evident after
the Moscow meeting between Sargsyan and Aliyev, when Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov and the President contradicted each other in their
statements. By the way, let us note in between that these disagreements
have started still since the June meeting of the Presidents, and what
it will lead to is still difficult to predict.

In view of the geopolitical situation, Armenia had better continue
cooperation with Iran, especially since it no longer appears so "bad"
in the eyes of the West. Today Azerbaijan, lost in her priorities,
little by little is losing her pseudo-friends on the region and,
no matter how hard the Baku propaganda and agitation department
tries to persuade that their "country is unique and exceptional in
the region", it can change nothing. Thus, in all likelihood, Iran is
determined to consolidate its place in the region and only "random"
course of events can prevent her from doing it.