Sunday’s Zaman, Turkey
July 26 2009

Turkish-Armenian rapprochement might cause breakthrough in
Nagorno-Karabakh

The recent rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey for the
normalization of relations between the two countries might cause a
breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh stalemate, regional analysts
agree.

S. Enders Wimbush, senior vice president of international programs and
policy at the Hudson Institute, states: `This [the opening of borders
between Armenia and Turkey] will require intense and delicate
diplomacy with Azerbaijan. [However], both Turkey and Azerbaijan will
benefit if they succeed.’

The normalization efforts between Ankara and Yerevan have shaken
Turkish-Azerbaijani friendship for a short period. In 1993, after the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
post-Soviet countries in the South Caucasus, the diplomatic ties
between Armenia and Turkey became strained. Supporting its strategic
ally Azerbaijan, Turkey closed its borders to Armenia to force the
latter to respect the borders of neighboring countries (as Armenia has
territorial claims on Turkey as well).

Azerbaijan’s primary resistance was over the opening of the
Turkish-Armenian border, which conflicts with Azerbaijan’s policy of
economically depriving Armenia in the region and hereby ensures easing
the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Russia, the dominant power in the region, is solely interested in
maintaining its grip. As the region is part of the former USSR, it is
in Russia’s interest to preserve its influence in the region over the
countries of the post-Soviet areas, particularly that of the South
Caucasus. While doing so, since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
Russia has attempted to manipulate the regional countries through
long-protracted conflicts such as Abkhazia and South-Ossetia, two
breakaway regions of Georgia allegedly supported by Russia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. In the early years of independence, Armenia, the
primary actor in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, fell under the
dominance of Russia, which earned Armenia the status of the only ally
Russia has in the post-Soviet Caucasus. The Nagorno-Karabakh war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, resulting in a 20 percent loss of
Azerbaijani territories and afterwards the closure of the Turkish
border to Armenia as a means of sanction, pushed the latter to be more
aligned with Russia. In the shadow of the economic and military
development of the Azerbaijani government, Russia continues to pursue
its dominant policy over the country through its notorious economic
leverage. Through deals over natural gas with Azerbaijan, Russia
attempts in this way to control the country and to maintain power. To
such an extent, Russia keeping both sides of the conflict under its
umbrella of influence maintains, in this way, its power in the South
Caucasus.

Calling the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict critical,
Andrew C. Kuchins, the director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), says, `For
more than 15 years Moscow has seen its interests best served by the
status quo of `frozen conflict’.’ Mentioning the role of Russia in
keeping regional conflicts alive and making them rest on its
interests, the expert said: `Last summer we witnessed two frozen
conflicts unfrozen in Moscow’s favor in Georgia. I am dubious that
Moscow would support any resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh that reduced
its leverage in Armenia and Azerbaijan from the status quo.’

However, the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could be regarded as a
brilliant opportunity to drive Armenia out of the control of Russia,
to pull the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from stalemate and in effect, to
bring peace and stability to the region.

In contrast, Kuchins restated Russia’s policy of dominance serving to
keep the countries in the South Caucasus under its control in the
region. He is skeptical that Moscow really supports the
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the border opening since that would
reduce the leverage that Russia has over Armenia.

Isolated in the region by Turkey and Azerbaijan because of the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, having direct trade with US-led sanctioned
Iran and with Russia through the territory of its conflicting neighbor
Georgia, Armenia is in an uneasy situation in the region. Reaching out
to the Black Sea coast and getting direct trade with Western markets,
Armenia can get away from Russian dependence and thereby achieve true
independence and sovereignty in the region.

Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, Wimbush stated that it is in everyone’s
(Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and all the neighbors) interest,
especially Turkey’s, for the improvement in relations with Armenia to
go forward. "However, such a development will be opposed by Russia,
which seeks to keep Armenia locked into Russia’s `special sphere of
influence’ and to keep Turkey dependent on Russia for strategic
guidance in the South Caucasus. According to Wimbush, Russia will
oppose Turkey becoming more deeply involved in the Caucasus, despite
the Caucasus being a primary strategic interest for
Turkey. Underlining this idea he adds that as Russia supplies 64
percent of Turkey’s gas via a range of existing and planned pipelines,
Russia has the power to prevent Turkey’s initiative. With the
statement, `Turkey should be prepared for some strong Russian
blackmail,’ he reiterates that Turkey should be bold in throwing open
its border with Armenia.

The Turkish-Armenian rapprochement marked the souring of
Azerbaijani-Turkish relations; however, Turkey claimed that it might
push Armenia to compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Although
the Azerbaijani administration preferred to keep silent, saying that
this is an issue that concerns Turkey and Armenia only, there was a
growing concern among the Azerbaijani public that Armenia could
benefit from the border opening. This, in turn, conflicts with
Azerbaijan’s policy of economically depriving Armenia. Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?Ä?an’s speech in the Azerbaijani
Parliament had a considerable effect on alleviating tensions between
Azerbaijan and Turkey.

26 July 2009, Sunday
LAM?Ä?°YA AD?Ä?°LGIZI ?Ä?°STANBUL