NOTHING NEW: ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS AND CSTO
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.08.2009 GMT+04:00
With the Armenian-Turkish border opened, Ankara’s chances of joining
the EU will not swell so much as to expect the integration in near
future.
The past week was rather eventful for Armenia, which is already quite
a typical state for her. However, all the events were a sequential
repetition: Armenian-Turkish relations, promulgation of the Madrid
principles. But the thrill of the week was Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan’s statement on the impossibility of his visit to Turkey over
a closed Armenian-Turkish border.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Sargsyan’s statement, made during a joint press
conference with his Serbian counterpart Boris Tadic, was later repeated
at the meeting with Armenian Diaspora representatives. Unarguably, the
Armenian President said what he was to say. Ankara’s immediate reaction
followed. If we leave out Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s
statements, we can directly declare that Ankara is convinced of
Sargsyan’s visit to Bursa for the purpose of attending the football
match between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Azerbaijan
couldn’t but react to the incident either. Azeri political scientists
expect that the Armenian President will after all attend the
football match and ground their predictions with the expected visit
of Vladimir Putin to Ankara due in August 2009. Baku’s judgment is,
as usual, simple: Putin will order, Sargsyan will go. Apparently,
President of the "independent and sovereign Azerbaijan" does what
he is ordered by Erdogan and Gul. Nevertheless, we must admit that
the degree of probability of the Armenian President’s presence at
the match Turkey-Armenia is not so high. There is also the factor
of the EU, which in this case plays against Turkey. Even if the
Armenian-Turkish border is opened at least for two hours, it will
be impossible to close it back, no matter how opposed Azerbaijan is
to its opening. With the the Armenian-Turkish border opened, chances
of Ankara to join the European Union will rise but not so much as to
expect the integration in near future; however the negotiations will
go more easily, and Turkey is well-aware of it.
The second event of the week was the already traditional "without tie"
meeting of the CSTO members in Kyrgyzstan. Everybody was present,
including Alexander Lukashenko and Islam Karimov, who has not so far
decided whether CSTO is necessary to Uzbekistan or not. After all, it
is necessary: the border disputes between the Central Asian countries
can best be addressed with the participation of a third country,
i.e. Russia. Whether anyone likes it or not is quite a different
question, but the fact is that thus far in the post-Soviet territory
this Organization replaces NATO, for the countries drawn into the
orbit of Russia.
At the summit the Presidents evidently discussed the issue of
establishment of collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF), but it is
hardly possible that they arrived at an understanding. In our view, the
problem is not financing, but the fuzziness in the spheres of activity
of CRRF. Belarus and Armenia rightly believe that their subdivisions
will have to participate in military operations in Central Asia, while
CSTO has been repeatedly declaring about the non-intervention of the
forces of Organization in the Karabakh conflict, in case Azerbaijan
starts military aggression. All this, of course, cannot but put
Yerevan on her guard. It seems CRRF will remain a pious wish until
the end of the year like many other initiatives within the framework
of the CIS and the CSTO.
And, finally, at the end of the week Tehran began trials against
the opposition politicians, who are accused of provoking riots. The
case of 100 people suspected of causing tension after the presidential
elections in Iran, will be considered at the court trial, reported news
agency Fars. The defendants are mostly political activists of the camp
of reformists. Those detained are accused of conspiring with terrorist
groups, laying a bomb, carrying firearms and hand grenades, as well
as intentionally attacking the police and volunteers, providing the
enemy press with photographs related to the rallies, robbing, violating
the law and damaging general and public property. Iran is presently
"renowned" by the atrocities against those thinking differently and
those violating the regime of ayatollahs. But this time there may be
quite a different outcome: Tehran needs participation in Nabucco,
and for that reason she would like to look a civilized country in
the eyes of the West.