GEORGIA: TENSION BETWEEN TBILISI AND MOSCOW MOUNTS AS WAR ANNIVERSARY NEARS
Giorgi Lomsadze

Eurasia Insight
ticles/eav080409c.shtml
8/04/09

Four days before the anniversary of Georgia’s 2008 war with Russia, a
flurry of phantom attacks along the border between Georgian-controlled
territory and separatist South Ossetia is stoking concerns in Tbilisi
about the possibility of renewed conflict.

As in early August and late July 2008, Georgia and Russia now swap
nearly daily reports about alleged incidents on the South Ossetia
border and blame each other for the reported violence.

In the latest such exchange, on August 4, Georgia’s Interior Ministry
claimed that two hand grenades were thrown late on August 3 at a
police post in the Georgian village of Plavismani. No one was injured,
according to the ministry.

South Ossetia, meanwhile, asserts that it was the South Ossetian
village of Ortev that came under a volley of mortar fire on August
3 from the direction of Plavismani.

Against such a backdrop and charges and counter-charges, some
analysts believe the chances for another war are running high. Pavel
Felgenhauer, a Russian defense analyst and columnist for Novaya Gazeta
who predicted the 2008 war with Russia, told Georgia’s Interpressnews
agency on August 3 that recent incidents indicate that there is an
"80 percent" chance of fresh conflict.

"[The incidents] indicate that it may come to a war in the matter of
days," Felgenhauer was quoted by Interpressnews as saying. Felgenhauer
believes that Russia is trying to finish off last year’s alleged task
— to redraw the map of the South Caucasus, subdue the defiantly
pro-Western Georgia and secure an overland route to its regional
ally, Armenia.

One Tbilisi analyst agrees. "Russia is testing international reactions
before it proceeds with its plans in Georgia," said Andro Barnov,
head of the Institute for Strategy and Development.

What Georgia calls a recent Russian attempt at a land grab has helped
to fuel that sense of unease in Tbilisi.

On August 1, the Georgian Interior Ministry charged that Russian
servicemen showed up in the Georgian village of Kveshi, not far from
South Ossetia, and marked off a border line by driving metal poles
into the ground; effectively partitioning the ethnically Georgian
village into two halves.

Government officials could not be reached to clarify who had sounded
the alarm and whether or not there had been any villager attempt at
resistance. The pro-government Rustavi-2 television station later
reported that the poles had been taken to another nearby village.

On August 3, Georgia’s Foreign Ministry claimed that the markings
had been removed after protests from Tbilisi. The European Union
Monitoring Mission (EUMM), the only international monitors left in
the area received assurances from Russia that Moscow had no intention
of shifting the border. The EUMM said that it has seen no evidence
suggesting any such attempt by Russia.

One resident of Kveshi, however, told EurasiaNet that she witnessed a
group of Russian soldiers planting the poles in her home village. "We
were coming back from a funeral, over on the Ossetian side and we
encountered Russian soldiers in the middle of our village," said the
woman, who requested anonymity to preserve her ability to visit family
in South Ossetia.

"They held us up, they were not rude or anything, and when we explained
that we were from this village they let us pass through."

The EUMM said there is "quite a bit of movement" across the porous
border between breakaway South Ossetia and Georgia proper. The
resident agreed, saying that Georgian villagers take their cattle
to pastures controlled by Russian border guards. She referred to
the Russian troops as "Vanyas," a somewhat derisive term. "Vanya"
is a diminutive name for "Ivan."

"If the Vanyas are not running around in their tanks or what have you,
then we always send livestock over to the Ossetian side to graze,"
the resident said.

The reported events in Kveshi have prompted the international community
to call for calm. The Russian Defense Ministry has threatened
military action should what it terms Georgian "provocations" – it
claims that Georgian artillery shelled the South Ossetian capital,
Tskhinvali — continue. The EUMM, denied access to South Ossetia,
has not substantiated the reports.

On August 3, the European Union requested all sides to "refrain from
any statement or action that may lead to tensions at this particularly
sensitive time."

France, which brokered the ceasefire agreement between Russia and
Georgia, followed suit. The French Foreign Ministry on August 3
warned that the flare-up in attacks could trigger a new "cycle of
violence." The ministry urged both Russia and Georgia to abide by
the accords of last August and September.