AT LEAST SOME CAUSE FOR ANOTHER WAR WITH GEORGIA
Yulia Kalinina

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 5, 2009 Wednesday
Russia

The president of South Ossetia implies that Russia is ready to go to
war for him all over again

SOUTH OSSETIA DEMANDS THE TURSO GORGE FROM GEORGIA; Eduard Kokoity
of South Ossetia demands from Georgia return of a gorge.

President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity said that his republic
intended to demand from Georgia the Turso George which he called "the
ancestral Ossetian land turned over to administrative management of
the Georgian Soviet Sovialist Republic for some inexplicable reason
in the Soviet past."

Kokoity’s statement probably signifies the first step to the second
Russian-Georgian war analysts have been predicting for months.

Should Tskhinvali follow the statement with any practical measures
in connection with the Turso Gorge, official Tbilisi will certainly
try to stop it. The Kremlin in its turn will automatically interpret
any clash between units of South Ossetian and Georgian armies at this
point as casus belli because it is Russia that needs another war now.

The status quo in the Caucasus cannot please the Russian leadership
and does not please it.

Saakashvili’s regime in Tbilisi denies the Kremlin control over gas
pipelines across Georgia. Uncontrollable Georgia is a major hindrance
for the Russian-Armenian cooperation. Georgia does not permit any
military transit via its territory, and Russia needs it badly. Russia
cannot maintain its military base in Gumri or build another one near
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border without it.

A more submissive president in Tbilisi will enable Russia to solve
these problems. Unfortunately, Saakashvili cannot be expected to
step down of his own volition. It follows that he should be forced
to go, and Kokoity with his territorial claims for the Torsu Gorge
may provide the Kremlin with an excuse to do just that.

Kokoity’s claims for the Georgian territory appear too outrageous even
to impartial observers. Russia defended South Ossetia from Georgia
in the first place. Shall it go for another war now to give Kokoity
a gorge? How many casualties will appease him?

Recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as sovereign states, Russia
became involved in an endless saga. Endless at least in the foreseeable
future.