ARMENIA IS IN DIFFICULT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: RUSSIAN EXPERT

Today.az
/54424.html
Aug 6 2009
Azerbaijan

Russia-based Center for Political Technologies First Vice President
Aleksey Makarkin spoke in an interview with Day.Az.

Day.Az: How do you assess negotiations on resolution of the Karabakh
conflict?

Aleksey Makarkin: Such conflicts are not solved quickly. In this case,
the positions of the parties are directly opposite and the situation
is very similar to the conflict in Northern Cyprus. This conflict
has lasted for decades. There is unrecognized republic and a country
patronizing this republic.

Referring to the Karabakh conflict, I should note that as a student in
199s I read books on the history of the conflict from both sides and
remember that they differed for completely opposite interpretations
and incompatibility of positions.

In the case of Northern Cyprus, both sides have a common goal – the
desire to join the EU, but they can not agree with this regard. But
in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, there is no such status. So I think
that this conflict will remain status quo. Of course, it does not
suit both parties, but in this situation other options are either
unrealistic or even worse.

Q: How would you describe Russia’s policy in the Caucasus?

A: It is complicated. On the one hand, Russia has cut off relations
with Georgia. But the war with Georgia was perceived as fair and
positively evaluated in the Russian society. The relationship can be
resumed only after Saakashvili steps down. This is a politician who
does not accept the entire political establishment in Russia.

With regard to Armenia, there is opinion in Russian elite that this
is outpost of Russian influence in the region. Armenia is very unhappy
with this because no country wants to be someone’s outpost. Therefore,
Armenia began to diversify its foreign policy. So, it began to build
relations with Turkey and made a demonstrative step of awarding the
Order of Honor to the Georgian president which was negatively accepted
by Russia. But the Armenians deliberately did it to demonstrate
independence and to show Moscow that Armenia is not outpost.

Relations with Azerbaijan is stable and from time to time this
stability is broken by disputes over broadcast channels and cooperation
with Georgia in the gas sphere. But in general Azerbaijan is not
dependent on Russia in the energy context. On the other hand, Russia
in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict is trying to behave like a
"honest broker", intermediary equidistant from both sides rather than
a party involved in the conflict.

At one time Russia was discontent with Azerbaijan’s participation
GUAM, but this discontent has passed, as time showed incapacity of
the organization. Thus, I believe that our relations are stable. There
is no conflict.

Q: What impact will Russia-Azerbaijan relations have on Baku’s
participation in the EU Eastern Partnership program and Nabucco energy
project in future?

A: I think that Nabucco is a greater irritant for Russia than
Eastern Partnership. The point is that the Eastern Partnership
besides Azerbaijan includes a variety of countries such as Belarus,
Moldova, etc. Therefore, Russia does not perceive it as an imminent
threat. There are just some jealousy in the implementation of such
projects, but nothing more. Russia is worried about the military
expansion of Europe. But now Europe does not want to grow in the
military context.

Nabucco is seen as a threat to Russia’s energy interests. Previously,
Russia did not react sharply to Nabucco, as it did not believe in
its implementation. Now following the signing of the agreement,
prospects for the project in terms of implementation have improved
and therefore Russia’s attitude to the project could become more
sharp which, in turn, could affect Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan.

Q: Is intention of the Armenian authorities to improve relations with
Turkey also demonstrative step or a strategy?

A: This is a strategy that gives show off against Russia. The
normalization is possible as Armenia is in a very difficult
geopolitical situation and it has to change some of its early policy
approaches.

Now the normalization is unlikely, but in future it will be possible.