THE NEGOTIATIONS PROCESS IS LIKE A GAME

Azadliq
July 29 2009
Azerbaijan

Given this, it would not be right to expect anything new for the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict in the near future

Zafar Quliyev: `Let us wait to see which leading force wins and so
it will step up its influence to impact the resolution of the conflict’

[translated from Azeri}

Frederick Starr, the director of the John Hopkins University Central
Asia and Caucasus Institute, has come up with noteworthy remarks
on the Karabakh conflict. According to a Turan news agency report,
he said that the process of the Karabakh settlement within the
framework of the OSCE Minsk Group is inefficient and ignominious,
stressing the importance of rejecting it to replace with a new format.

Starr said that a lot of moves had recently taken place around
the Karabakh conflict, nevertheless, there is much smoke than
flame. Commenting on the current state of affairs, he said: "There have
been many statements and meetings. We, of course, welcome substantial
statements, but it would be very good if they were backed by deeds."

The expert also recalled the Russian incursion into Georgia a year
ago: "It is unclear what Russia wants: to resolve the conflict or
preserve everything as they are. Apparently, Russia simply wants to
create an illusion that it allegedly is active in the negotiations,
that it takes certain steps but actually they are all tricks."

Russia wants the conflict to continue. Europe and the USA have to
realize once and for all that in the Nagornyy Karabakh problem, Russia
like a year ago in Georgia, "is a direct player in the conflict".

Commenting on these remarks, political expert Zafar Quliyev stressed
that it contained nothing new: "His remarks almost contain nothing
new. Similar opinions have been voiced repeatedly.

Our domestic experts have repeatedly expressed their discontent with
the activities of the [OSCE] Minsk Group, demanding that its format
be altered. The Minsk Group has fully turned into a non-constructive
organization. That is to say, it is idle. At the same time, similar
opinions were aired with regard to Russia. From time to time,
international experts also commented on the issue.

The political expert believes that it is interesting that the remarks
are being aired now. Now on the one hand, in the negotiations process
we are observing intensification. Over the last half a year, the
presidents have met five times. The OSCE Minsk Group often holds
meetings to preserve optimism. They also express an opinion that
serious progress is possible in the negotiations process by the end of
the year. The Madrid principles have actually been made public. They
stress similarity in positions and new steps made by the presidents.

Nevertheless, at this point when the negotiations are intensive,
US Vice-President Joe Biden’s severe criticism of Russia, as well
as the criticism of the OSCE Minsk Group by the US expert and at the
same time, airing discontent with Russia’s position cause interest.

This manifests that actually, the leading states at the geopolitical
level, first of all, the USA and Russia, are in a confrontation
over several issues as well as on the settlement of the Karabakh
issue. Although, several days ago, in the run-up to the summit of
the G8, the leaders of mediating countries issued a joint statement
on Karabakh.

This statement led to an illusion that these countries allegedly
share common views and they have reached an agreement.. By issuing
the joint statement, they actually tried to speed up the negotiations
process. This statement seemed strengthening optimism. However,
the unsuccessful Moscow talks at the next stage and opinions being
aired at present show those positions of Russia and the USA are still
clashing. They are not allies but rivals in the South Caucasus.

This rivalry still manifests itself with regard to the resolution of
the Karabakh issue and it is possible that it would be the case from
now on. Moscow views the resolution of the Karabakh issue differently,
it wants first of all retain its initiative and act as an initiator
both in the region and in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. At
the same time, after the Georgian events, the USA has been doing its
utmost to lessen Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus and step
up its role in the existing conflict.

Given this condition, the format of the Minsk Group could not be
successful since interests and positions of the mediating countries
are clashing.

As a result of this, no serious progress is being made in the
negotiations process. The negotiations process resembles a game. Given
this situation, it would be wrong to expect anything in the resolution
of the Karabakh conflict. Either radical changes should be made to
the format and the activities of the Minsk Group or we have to wait
for the end of the geopolitical struggle in the South Caucasus. We
should wait and see which leading force will win and consequently,
step up its influence in the resolution of the conflict."