ARMENIA: PUTIN VISIT TO TURKEY SPARKS HOPES AND FEARS IN YEREVAN
Haroutiun Khachatrian

Eurasia Insight
ticles/eav081109a.shtml
8/11/09

Armenians watched Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s August 6-7
visit to Turkey with a mixture of hope and suspicion. While many in
Yerevan see potential benefits arising out of closer Turkish-Russian
ties, worries persist among Armenian leaders and experts that Turkey’s
importance in the eyes of the Kremlin may come to outweigh that
of Armenia.

Officially, there was no indication that the issue of Armenian-Turkish
relations was discussed in any form during Putin’s trip to Ankara. The
visit led to Turkey’s agreement to environmental impact studies
relating to the Russian-backed South Stream gas pipeline project, as
well as the signing of accords on Russian construction of a nuclear
power plant, the country’s first.

So far, the Armenian government has adopted a neutral tone on the
visit. But after more than a year of attempts at normalizing relations
with Turkey and reopening the Armenian-Turkish border, the visit
nevertheless stirred mixed feelings in Yerevan. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Of course, it is not a pleasant thing to see your strategic partner
[Russia] building ambitious programs with countries with which Armenia
has problems," the online magazine new.am quoted MP Aram Safarian,
a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, part of Armenia’s government
coalition, as saying.

Yet in the energy sphere, Armenian and Russian interests can easily
coincide with those of Turkey, noted Alexander Iskandarian, director of
the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute. "Russia is a major shareholder
in the Armenian energy system and is interested in the possibility
of exporting Armenian electricity to Turkey. This indicates that
Turkish-Russian contacts are beneficial to Armenia," he said.

Electricity exports to Turkey were expected to start in April-May 2009,
but so far have not begun. There has been no official explanation
for the delay, but, presumably, diplomatic obstacles are to blame.

One opposition member, though, believes that Russia’s involvement in
Turkey may upset the existing balance of power in the South Caucasus,
with uncertain results for Armenia.

"Russia has already somewhat shattered the balance in the region
by intensifying its contacts with Turkey and, especially, with
Azerbaijan," said political analyst Styopa Safarian, a MP affiliated
with the Heritage Party and member of parliament’s Foreign Affairs
Committee. Moscow recently signed an agreement with Baku on gas
sales to the Russian republic of Dagestan and named a price for gas
purchases from the second phase of the country’s ambitious Shah Deniz
project. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Other experts are more optimistic, believing that the Kremlin will
push officials in Ankara to reopen Turkey’s border with Armenia. Such
a development would ease Armenia’s ability to export goods. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "Russia, in fact,
is interested in opening the Turkish-Armenian border, as after the
August 2008 war, it lost Georgia as a route to Armenia, its military
and economic partner," observed Iskandarian.

Whether that interest is sufficiently strong to have prompted Putin to
try and decouple the reopening of the border from the Karabakh peace
process remains unknown, however. Ankara has insisted that Armenia
meet a set of conditions on the conflict before it will reopen its
border with Armenia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In late July, President Serzh Sargsyan stated that he would not visit
Turkey in October unless the border is open or is close to opening
by that time. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkey maintains that it is sincere about wanting to see the border
with Armenia reopen, although no noticeable progress has been made
on this score recently. "Turkey has prospects in the Caucasus both
in terms of Turkey-Armenia and Armenia-Azerbaijan relations," Turkish
Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on August 9, the
APA news agency reported. "That’s why Turkey is resolute to normalize
the relations with Armenia and our contacts on this theme continue."

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is an editor and freelance writer
based in Yerevan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress