ALTERNATIVE: VIABLE STATEHOOD OR NEITHER-STATEHOOD-NOR-PEACE SITUATION
News.am
17:37 / 08/18/2009
NEWS.am has received a statement issued by the Council of the
Trabzon-Ardvin-Batum Association.
Below is an abridged translation of the statement.
"The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has entered a new stage. The
name of the stage is the intellectual and nervous struggle over
Lower Karabakh.
"Azerbaijan is most enthusiastic over the fact that the first of the
Principles of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement published in July 10 is
the return of the territories round Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
"We do not think it is worth discussing the advisability of
inadvisability of returning the territories to the aggressor
that unleashed a war in 1991. Far less worthy are any talks about
configurations of such a return (five regions now, with two later,
etc…). The consequences of such a return – disastrous for the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process – are clear and can be summed up
as follows: Azerbaijan will spur its old territorial ambitions and
have new ones. The opposite side is openly discussing plans to unite
‘one nation, but two states’ after the anticipated capture of Zangezur.
"Our aim is to tell the reader about two possible ways of developments
is case any decision on the Lower Karabakh is made.
"For some reason, the Armenian expert community is not in the habit
of discussing these alternative ways. May be they take it for granted,
but it must be discussed.
"Way one: return of Lower Karabakh regions to Azerbaijan In this
case, the return of only a few regions is impossible. If even
part of a region is returned, nothing will prevent the return of
all the other regions. If there is no obstacle to the return of
all the regions, Nagorno-Karabakh will return to the ‘borders’ of
1988, when everything started. The Armenian side will return to the
enclave status of Nagorno-Karabakh, with the Lachin corridor not to
play any essential role: land communication between Armenian and
Nagorno-Karabakh will be as insecure as it was 20 years ago. The
aforementioned will demonstrate to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh the
necessity for forming one state named Republic of Armenia… In
other words, uniting with Armenia will be the only guarantee of
Nagorno-Karabakh’s security… For the Armenian side, the situation
of 1988 will then seem much better than he one 20 years later. Who
will concern himself with the results of a referendum held on
December 10, 1991, wth the Nagorno-Karabakh Constitution of 2006,
its 20-year-long de factor independent statehood, and with many other
things. The present neither-peace-nor-war situation will be replaced
by a neither-statehood-nor-peace one. The probability of a new war
will be even higher, and Artsakh’s weaker statehood will make for
that process. Both the region and the entire world will view the
Armenian statehood as not serious and impotent in the South Caucasus
and the Armenians throughout the world as a socially and politically
degrading nation. It means a split within the Armenian society,
which will throw it decades back in accomplishing national tasks.
"Way two: The adoption of a declaration on its statehood by the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) within its present-day borders,
which will be a step forward as compared with Article 142 of the
NKR Constitution… In that case, the preceding years of neither war
nor peace will be a necessary stage of the NKR people’s consistent
struggle for its statehood. The Armenian side will continue its way
to two states in the South Caucasus – within the borders that will
effectively guarantee their statehood. In hat case, legal acts will
be consistently framed and respected. The key external factors in the
Nagoro-Karabakh peace process will finally understand the Armenian
side’s intention and the fact that these intentions doe not run counter
to their long-term foreign-policy interests" Azerbaijan’s only argument
for the inevitability of return of Lower Karabakh to it is as follows:
Armenians will not be able to stand the external pressure as they have
no foreign policy resources. In fact, no one is willing to pressure
Armenians nor anyone has necessary resources to pressure the Armenian
side into making any steps. We declare it with all responsibility
on the basis of contacts with experts representing all the OSCE MG
Co-Chairing countries, officials of the countries a well as of the
key EU member-states having to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process. We expect the Armenian side to make fundamental decisions on
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and all the public and political
forces to have one and the same position on the issue.
Some may dislike this alternative, but it is an alternative to a
national disaster."