IMPERIAL AMBITIONS MUST BE GIVEN LEGAL IMPLEMENTATION
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
11.08.2009 GMT+04:00
Most likely Medvedev’s bill is motivated by the fact that Russia
doesn’t want to get involved in yet another Caucasian war, which has
never led to anything good.
The latest bill introduced by President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev on
the amendments and additions to the federal Law on "Defense" concerning
the application of the armed forces outside the national territory
has become somewhat a surprise. However, more detailed consideration
of this bill shows that it is nothing more than a means to cool the
hot heads in the Caucasus, first of all in Georgia and Azerbaijan.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The persistent incomprehension of current
geopolitical realities since 1988 in Azerbaijan and since 1991
in Georgia led to the fact that Tbilisi and Baku constantly speak
about the war as a method of solving all their problems. Founding
the block GUAM to spite CSTO, Georgia and Azerbaijan are trying to
impose on the South Caucasus their vision of peace and their model of
a clan state that, quite naturally, has nothing in common with the
"commitment to democratic values", proclaimed by Ilham Aliyev and
Mikhail Saakashvili. The bill that was submitted to the RF State
Duma and will undoubtedly be passed by the Federation Council, also
aims at consolidating Russia ‘s presence in the region. Gas and oil
as leverage are good for the time being, but the military component
is always important, especially now that the United States with the
help of Georgia and Azerbaijan wants to oust Russia from the region,
no matter how hard Mathew Bryza tries to persuade that "the United
States is not against the Russian presence in the Caucasus; it has
always been and will remain in the Caucasus".
Actually, the bill gives good legal base for the possibility of using
the CSTO collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF), which, after all,
are established to prevent aggression from the countries of other
blocks. And since NATO in the foreseeable future is not going to
unleash a war against Russia , there remains only the block GUAM
or, to be more concise, what remains from it, i.e. Azerbaijan and
Georgia . The Ukraine and Moldova do not count: the relations with
Kiev have worsened so much that President Medvedev has even refused
to send an ambassador there. Moldova evidently falls out from the
Georgian-Azerbaijani axis for the absence of common interests. So,
there remain only Tbilisi and Baku with the unquenchable thirst of
revenge and the passionate desire to return the territories that never
belonged to them. But for all that, both capitals are perfectly aware
that no "framework agreement" will be able to return a plot of land;
there’s been no precedent for this throughout the history. Thus,
they can do nothing but threaten. But now threatening will be a
little difficult: the RF will have the opportunity, without a vote
in the Federation Council to intervene in new conflicts affecting
the interests of official allies. We are consciously using the term
"official ally" rather than strategic, because, in view of obligations
under the Collective Security Treaty Organization Moscow is simply
obliged to protect, for example, Armenia or the countries of Central
Asia .
An analogous law exists also in the USA, only the permission of the
Congress is compulsory there; or at least so it was until September 11,
2001. According to the bill proposed by Dmitry Medvedev, President
of the country must be given the sole right to decide on the use of
military force abroad with the aim to repel the attacks on the Russian
troops stationed out of the country, to repel or avert aggression
against another state, to protect the RF citizens, to combat piracy,
and to ensure safe navigation.
In July 2006 the RF State Duma approved the amendments to the
legislation, which made it possible for the Head of State to decide on
the overseas use of the Russian armed forces units and special-purpose
subdivisions to combat terrorism against Russia, citizens of Russia or
those without citizenship permanently living in Russia. Now the list of
emergency situations is supplemented with the "repulsion of aggression"
or "aversion of probable aggression against a third country".
It is quite possible that Medvedev’s bill is motivated by the fact that
Russia doesn’t want to get involved in yet another Caucasian war, which
has never led to anything good. The situation has already continued for
200 years: Russian troops come, bring certain stability and then depart
in the naive belief that Caucasian nations will no longer start a war
against each other. However, after some time the situation repeats
itself. Perhaps, this explains the presence of Russian permanent
military bases in the Caucasus. But there is another aspect of this
bill, and not a pleasant one: it can be estimated as an attempt to
revive the empire at least within the borders of the USSR. And the
"unpleasant" point in all this is that the countries which have
received the help of the Russian troops will, roughly speaking, be
forced to become the sequential instruments of the federation, which,
in principle, is already happening. And lastly, Moscow would not be
making sudden moves if the USA was as strong as in the times of even
George W. Bush. The global financial crisis made this world power
vulnerable, and Russia simply could not but seize her opportunity.