INTELLIGENCE AND TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER
docstalk.blogspot.com
Aug 18, 2009
Last weekend, Iran ‘s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was forced to
give in to the demands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and cancel the
controversial appointment of his first vice president, Esfandiar
Rahim Masha’i. In a decree issued by Khamenei, the Supreme Leader
noted that the appointment of Masha’i was against the president’s
best interest and the government’s interest, that it would cause
division and frustration among his supporters, and that it had to be
cancelled immediately. Consequently, Masha’i sent the president of
Iran a letter saying that he no longer considered himself the first
vice president. In his reply, Ahmadinejad said that he accepted the
resignation, expressing his deepest respect to Masha’i (Mehr, July
25). Shortly thereafter, Ahmadinejad appointed Masha’i his advisor
and office chief. President Ahmadinejad sent a letter to Khamenei
telling him that his instructions had been carried out.
Masha’i’s appointment as vice president was cancelled after a week
of intense pressure exerted on Iran’s president-even by his close
associates-to reconsider the appointment. The pressure seemed to
have no effect when the president announced last week that he was
not willing to reconsider Masha’i’s appointment as his first vice
president. Ahmadinejad defended his own decision to appoint Masha’i,
saying that he was one of the most dedicated, loyal, and creative
executives in the country, and that therefore there was no reason
not to let him serve his country. In a conversation with journalists
the president said that if Masha’i’s critics had known him better,
they would have changed their minds (Press TV, July 22). It should
be noted that Masha’i and Ahmadinejad are in-laws: the president’s
daughter is married to Masha’i’s son.
The president would not reconsider even when Iran ‘s media published
reports about the Supreme Leader’s objection to the appointment. His
insistence only intensified the criticism aimed at him, which was
even reflected in the last Friday sermon, when the Friday sermon
preacher, conservative cleric Ahmad Khatami, expressed his hope that
the president would change his mind about the decision to appoint
Masha’i as his vice president.
The strong opposition from the conservative bloc to the appointment
of Masha’i, who was the vice president in charge of cultural heritage
and tourism affairs in Ahmadinejad’s previous government, stemmed
to a great extent from a statement made by Masha’i several months
ago about Iran being a friend of all the nations in the world,
including the nation of Israel . At the time, that statement caused
a considerable uproar in Iran , even though Masha’i explained that
he did not recognize the State of Israel and he only referred to the
residents of Palestine , not to "Zionists". Masha’i drew opposition
from the conservative bloc also because of other incidents in which
he had been involved; for example, several years ago he took part in
a tourism convention in Turkey which included a performance of female
dancers dressed in revealing clothing.
Masha’i’s promotion to first vice president was therefore met with
fierce opposition not only from the president’s supporters but
also from top conservative clerics. Senior cleric Ayatollah Nasser
Makarem-Shirazi went as far as to issue a religious ruling saying
that Masha’i’s appointment was illegitimate and had to be cancelled
as soon as possible. Even Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief
of the daily Keyhan and one of the president’s staunch supporters,
published an article criticizing Ahmadinejad’s decision to appoint
Masha’i as his vice president (July 19). The article says that the
president’s supporters, those who worked for his reelection, expected
him to honor the 25 million civilians who had voted for him. Masha’i’s
appointment as first vice president was a shock and a cause for concern
for all the president’s voters, who rightfully believed that not only
was the president making a bad decision, but he was also ignoring
the people. In light of Masha’i’s controversial views, it could have
been expected that Ahmadinejad would relieve him of his position as
the vice president in charge of historical legacy and tourism affairs;
unfortunately, however, not only did the president not dismiss Masha’i,
he even decided to promote him to first vice president. Even though
the president has the authority to appoint his vice president, that
position belongs to the people. The president may of course maintain
his personal relations with Masha’i, but he must cancel his appointment
as vice president, writes Shariatmadari.
Even Iran ‘s Chief of Staff Hassan Firouzabadi addressed the Masha’i
affair and said in a meeting with top commanders that the instructions
of the Supreme Leader must be followed to the letter. Referring to
the decree issued by Khamenei, Firouzabadi appealed to the president
saying that the Iranian people expected him to obey the Supreme Leader
and act in accordance with his instructions (news agencies, July 25).
It is not the first time differences of opinion arise between President
Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei. For example, several months
ago the media reported tensions between the two leaders over the
president’s decision to assign responsibility for the issue of Iranian
pilgrims to Iran ‘s Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization. The
decision triggered harsh criticism from the president’s opponents,
claiming he was going against the Supreme Leader’s views. The Supreme
Leader also expressed reservations about Ahmadinejad’s April 2006
decision to let women into soccer stadiums. In those two cases, the
president was also forced to back down from his original decision
and accept the ruling of the Supreme Leader.
One week before the end of the government’s tenure: Ahmadinejad
dismissed the ministers of Intelligence and Islamic Guidance This
week, only eight days before the end of his first government’s
tenure, President Ahmadinejad dismissed Islamic Guidance
Minister Mohammad-Hossein Saffar Harandi and Intelligence Minister
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje’i. Mohammad-Ali Khawaja Piri, until now
a senior director in the Islamic Guidance Ministry, will become
the acting Islamic guidance minister, and Majid Alavi, one of the
intelligence minister’s deputies, will become the acting intelligence
minister. Iranian media has reported that the president was also
going to dismiss Health Minister Kamran Baqeri Lankarani as well as
Labor and Social Affairs Minister Mohammad Jahrami.
According to Iranian commentators, the president’s decision to
dismiss the ministers such a short time before the end of his
government’s tenure has to do with the criticism voiced by those
ministers against his decision to appoint Rahim Masha’i as his first
vice president. According to various reports, a heated argument between
the president and the ministers broke out during the government meeting
last week, following which the ministers walked out in protest (Farda,
Fararo, July 26).
Ahmadinejad dismissed nine government members during his first
tenure. The president’s decision to dismiss the ministers only one
week before the end of the government’s tenure drew strong criticism,
as could be expected. Ahmad Tavakoli, the head of the Majles
Research Center , said that there was no reasonable justification
for dismissing the ministers at the present time, and that it was
contrary to the interests of the government and the state. Tavakoli
mentioned that according to the Iranian constitution, the dismissal of
the intelligence and Islamic guidance ministers called for a new trust
vote by the Majles, since over half of its members had been dismissed
since the government began its tenure. He noted that he could not see
the political reasoning behind the president’s decision to dismiss his
ministers just before the new government was presented to the Majles,
requiring his government to win a new trust vote by the Majles (
Fars , July 26).
The Asr-e Iran website has also criticized the president’s decision to
dismiss his ministers, saying that even though it was the president’s
prerogative, dismissing the ministers at such close proximity to the
end of the government’s tenure only due to their stance regarding the
appointment of Rahim Masha’i is completely unreasonable. The website
said that the president’s decision was all the more unwarranted given
the prevailing mood in Iran in the wake of the presidential elections,
requiring the president to calm the situation ( Asr-e Iran , July 27).
Shortly after the information on the dismissal of the two ministers
was released, Iran ‘s media reported that the president decided
not to carry out his decision to dismiss the Islamic guidance
minister in order to avoid having to go through a trust vote in the
Majles. However, several hours later, Saffar Harandi sent a letter to
the president saying that he was resigning on his own initiative. The
news agencies reported that the president refused to accept the letter
of resignation.
Muslim solidarity put to the test: Iran ‘s response to the riots in
west China The murder of Marwa al-Sharabini, a young Muslim woman of
Egyptian descent, by a Russian-born German man during a court session
in the German city of Dresden in early July aroused strong reactions
in Iran , among other countries. The German ambassador to Tehran was
called by the Iranian Foreign Ministry for a reprimand. The Foreign
Ministry spokesman condemned the incident, saying that it reflected
the deep-running hatred against immigrants and religious minorities in
Germany . President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also addressed the incident,
blaming the government of Germany for the murder and the West for
its double standard on the issue of human rights. Ahmadinejad even
demanded the UN Security Council to convene in order to discuss
the incident and pass a resolution condemning Germany . However,
the Iranian authorities’ strong reaction to the murder of the Muslim
woman in Germany made all the more conspicuous their silence over the
clashes which broke out in early July between Chinese authorities and
the Uyghur Muslim minority in west China. The riots in the province
of Xinjiang broke out when members of the Muslim minority claimed they
were discriminated against, and led to the deaths of over 150 people.
The riots in China brought the Iranian authorities face to face
with a complicated dilemma. Since the Islamic revolution, Iran has
time and again reiterated its deep commitment to Islamic solidarity
and its wall-to-wall support of Muslims worldwide. In this case,
however, that commitment posed a potential threat to Iran ‘s national
interests. First, Iran and China have a strategic relationship
which covers many spheres, including energy, trade, communications,
and transportation. In recent years, China has been one of Iran ‘s
key trade partners. Iran also needs political support from China
, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, to prevent the
tightening of international sanctions against it due to the Iranian
nuclear program. Had Iranian officials rallied to the support of the
rioting Muslims in China , the close relationship between the two
countries could have been compromised, as far as Iran ‘s authorities
were concerned.
The timing of the riots in China only worsened the dilemma facing
Iran . The riots broke out several weeks after the Iranian authorities
themselves suppressed the violent riots that broke out in the country
after the presidential election results were published. The parallels
between the happenings in China and the happenings in Iran required
the Iranian authorities to exercise even greater caution in their
response to the riots in China .
In the days following the first international media reports on the
suppression of the riots in China , Iran ‘s authorities avoided making
any comments regarding the riots and the official media published
almost no information about them. It was only about one week after
the riots broke out that Iranian media reported on a telephone
call held by Iran ‘s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki with his
Chinese counterpart about the happenings in west China . According
to those reports, in that telephone conversation Mottaki expressed
the Muslim countries’ concern over the killing of Muslim civilians in
China . However, Mottaki stressed the need for maintaining China ‘s
national unity and rejected all foreign attempts to interfere in China
‘s internal affairs, saying such attempts were meant to destabilize
that country. Not only did the Iranian authorities not condemn the
suppression of the riots in China , the government’s supporters even
expressed support of the policy of the Chinese authorities and accused
the US of instigating the riots. For example, the official news agency
IRNA claimed that the Muslim protestors in China had been incited by
the US , which would like to stage a velvet coup in China to deal
with the strengthening of China ‘s economic position. Similarly,
the ultra-conservative website Raja News claimed that the US was
behind the riots in China , following up on the attempts of Western
governments last year to incite the citizens of Tibet against the
authorities on the eve of the Olympics in Beijing .
A similar claim was made by Hamid Reza Taraqi, a senior member
of the conservative Islamic Coalition party and a government
supporter. Referring to the events in China , Taraqi said that the US
was clearly involved, and that its involvement was driven by China ‘s
support of the Iranian nuclear program. He further added that the riots
in China had to do with ethnic as opposed to religious issues, and
that the protestors who made use of religion had other goals. He said
that there was no evidence of the Chinese authorities discriminating
against Muslims, and that he saw no sign of any restrictions imposed
on Muslims during his visit to China .
Be that as it may, the reaction of the Iranian authorities and the
government supporters to the riots in China was not indicative of all
of Iran . The government’s relative indifference over the suppression
of the riots in China was even strongly criticized by senior clerics
and Iranian media. Asr-e Iran, a news website associated with the
pragmatic conservative bloc, accused the Chinese government of a
continuing discrimination against China’s Muslim minority and a policy
of anti-Islamic suppression, while the Tabnak website claimed that
the Iranian government’s stance with regard to the events in China
reflected a double standard regarding attacks on Muslims in China
and in Palestine, wondering whether the relationship with communist
China was more important than the murder of Chinese Muslims.
The conservative daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami also strongly criticized
the Iranian authorities’ silence on the suppression of the riots in
China . According to an editorial published in the daily and titled
"The Events of Xinjiang and our Responsibility", the government’s
policy on the events in China and the official media’s disregard of
those events contradict Iran’s commitment to defend the rights of
Muslims worldwide, as set forth in the Iranian constitution. Even
though it is political considerations that prevent the government of
Iran from taking a strong stance on the events, the article says,
the interests of the Muslim nation and maintaining the position
of the Iranian regime are too important to justify that kind of
indifference towards the events in China . The criticism voiced by
Iran ‘s media was soon joined by senior clerics, headed by the two top
conservative clerics: Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah
Safi Golpaygani, as well as the senior cleric Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei,
associated with the reformist bloc. In a letter published by Ayatollah
Makarem-Shirazi, the senior cleric condemned the oppression against the
Muslims in China , saying that despite the close, friendly political
and economic relations between Iran and China , Iran could not remain
indifferent towards the violent suppression of China ‘s Muslims. The
Iranian people, the letter says, expect Iran ‘s authorities to take a
stronger stance on the events in China and not to leave their Muslim
brothers in China to fend for themselves.
The Iranian government’s restraint on the events in China shows once
again that Iran’s foreign policy reflects a combination of official
political interests on one hand and a revolutionary vision and
ideological concepts on the other, and that whenever Iran perceives
that the revolutionary vision may compromise its fundamental national
interests, its tendency is to act in accordance with pragmatic
considerations.
Continuing deterioration in Iran ‘s economic situation Economic data
released this week indicate that Iran ‘s economic situation continues
to deteriorate. Recent data published by the economic intelligence
team of the British weekly The Economist show that Iran ‘s exports
this year are likely to decrease by 38 billion dollars compared to
last year. According to the data, quoted by the ISNA news agency,
the exports are expected to drop from 95.1 billion dollars last year
to only 56.4 billion dollars this year, which would make it Iran
‘s lowest exports level since 2004. However, The Economist forecasts
that Iran ‘s exports will increase again next year to 67.5 billion
dollars (ISNA, July 28). Also according to The Economist, in light
of the decline in Iran ‘s oil revenues, the country’s economic growth
rate will drop by about half a percent.
What is more, the reformist daily E’temad-e Melli has reported this
week (July 25) that 150 Iranian financial companies are currently on
the verge of bankruptcy. According to the report, the severe crisis
among Iran ‘s public and private companies stems, among other things,
from the global recession, the Western sanctions on Iranian banks,
and the crisis in Iran ‘s banking system. The companies affected
by the crisis include automobile giant Iran Khodro, major aluminum
manufacturer IRALCO, as well as Fars Electronic. The daily Jomhuri-ye
Eslami has also addressed this week the crisis facing Iran Khodro,
saying that the government had to spend billions of dollars in an
attempt to rescue the company (Jomhuri-ye Eslami, July 29).
The daily E’temad-e Melli has also reported this week that in the
first four months after the outbreak of the global economic crisis,
350 thousand Iranian workers lost their workplaces. In that context,
the economic daily Sarmayeh has reported this week that according to
the International Monetary Fund Iran’s unemployment rate is expected to
reach 23 percent by 2010 (Sarmayeh, July 26). The Statistical Centre
of Iran (SCI) has recently reported that the unemployment rate in
Iran has dropped to 11.1 percent in the last several months.
In early 2009, top Iranian government officials admitted that the
world economic crisis was having an adverse effect on Iran ‘s economy
as well. Prior to that, various Iranian officials, including President
Ahmadinejad, rejected the claims that the economic crisis could hit
Iran ‘s economy.
Flight safety making headlines again after two air disasters in ten
days The issue of civil flight safety has kept Iran ‘s media busy this
week following yet another plane accident which took place in Iran last
weekend. Sixteen people were killed and over 30 were injured when an
Ilyushin Il-62 aircraft en route from Tehran to Mashhad (northeast
Iran ) slid off the runway in Mashhad Airport and crashed. 153
people were on board. According to reports, the passenger plane
caught fire several minutes before the scheduled landing, making it
impossible for the crew to land. The ILNA news agency reported that
the accident was likely caused by a human error on the part of the
pilot, who attempted to land the plane at excessive speed. The air
disaster struck just nine days after the crash of another passenger
plane, a Russian-made Tupolev belonging to Iran ‘s Caspian Airways,
en route from Tehran to Yerevan , the capital of Armenia . All 168
passengers and crew on board were killed in the crash, which took
place near the city of Qazvin , in northwestern Iran . In yet another
flight incident which took place this week, a passenger flight from
Tehran to Mashhad had to return to the Tehran airport shortly after
takeoff due to a technical malfunction.
The Chairman of the Majles Committee on National Security and Foreign
Policy said that a parliamentary enquiry committee was established
to investigate the reasons behind the recent air disasters (Mehr,
July 26). At the same time, Majles Speaker Ali Larijani asked the
Transportation Minister to provide a detailed explanation about the
air disasters which occurred recently.
It should be noted that in the past decade, a relatively large number
of air disasters, in which hundreds of people were killed, took place
in Iran . According to various estimates, about one third of all the
passenger planes used by Iranian airlines are not safe for use. The
average age of the planes used by Iran Air, the national airline, is
approximately 25 years. The main reason for the severe safety issues
with Iranian planes is the economic embargo imposed by the West on Iran
, which forces the airlines to use non-original spare parts either
manufactured by Iran or purchased on the black market. Some airlines
also use Russian planes, usually considered less safe. Following the
two recent air disasters, top Iranian officials blamed the US for the
deaths of innocent civilians as a result of the embargo on spare parts
for planes. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hassan Qashqavi has recently
claimed that the embargo was a violation of human rights which put
at risk the lives of many civilians, including European and American
nationals (IRIB, July 19).
In that context, Iran Air CEO Saeed Hessami said this week that
the company recently purchased 400 new passenger planes, including
Tupolev-154 and Tupolev-204 planes. Hessami noted that the planes
would arrive in Iran soon ( Fars , July 24).
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
